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For the last several years, real estate has been in a pricing bubble. Prices have been substantially higher than historical relationships to incomes and rents would justify. While prices have started to decline, they are still abnormally high compared to these core fundamentals. This website is focused on analyzing the housing bubble, its aftermath, and real estate in general as it pertains to the Greater Boston Area.
 
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Boston-Specific Info

  • Boston Futures: For Greater Boston real estate prices from 1987 through the present and looking several years into the future, see the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Boston snapshot with futures (both before and after inflation). The futures markets are probably the most unbiased predictor of where housing prices are headed.
  • Price/Income: For a gauge of how overpriced the market is, see the latest report on the Greater Boston price to income ratio.
  • Inflation Adjusted: See the latest report on Massachusetts single family home prices for prices as typically reported by the local media but adjusted for inflation.
  • Price/Rent: Comparing prices to rents can help illuminate an overpriced market since many hypothetical justifications for higher home prices should raise rents as well. See the latest report on the Boston MSA price to rent ratio.
  • The population of the Greater Boston Area was declining as the housing market posted its most exceptional gains during the bubble. One of the fallacious arguments which was used to contest the existence of a housing bubble was that a growing population was pushing up the natural price of property. While that argument is flawed in general, it is especially wrong when the population is declining. [Boston Globe] [Boston Bubble]
  • The Wall Street Journal has identified Boston as one of the metropolitan areas in the US where it is cheaper to rent than to buy. Their data goes from 2001, when it was already cheaper to rent, to 2004 when the difference was even more pronounced. The Economist also published an article showing that renting is cheaper, and although it does not focus on Boston, it is very thorough about including various expenses and tax benefits that the Wall Street Journal left out. [Wall Street Journal] [The Economist]
  • Consumer Reports has rated real estate in the Boston market as "Overpriced" and pegged it at 24% over the affordable price as of Q4 2004. [Consumer Reports]
  • The number of homes sold in Massachusetts has been plummeting. For the third quarter of 2006 (the most recently reported quarter as of this writing), home sales have fallen 23% compared with the same quarter one year earlier. This despite the fact that home sales were already on the decline in 2005. [Worcester Telegram] [WCVB] [Milford Daily News]
  • Foreclosures are rising sharply in Greater Boston and Massachusetts. There were more foreclosures in the first nine months of 2006 than in all of 2005, and as of this writing (in November 2006), Massachusetts is on track to break the all time record in 2006. [Boston Globe] [Lowell Sun]
  • Boston and Massachusetts are the typical exceptions that people use to qualify their statements when they say that real estate prices don't fall. Boston and Massachusetts prices have fallen in the past, even in nominal terms (when adjusted for inflation, the fall is even more pronounced). Bear in mind that even if prices decline merely by the same percent that they have in the past, the leverage (a.k.a., margin or mortgage) used to purchase the homes must be taken into consideration - the substantially higher number of zero down and negative amortization loans will leave a lot of people with heavy losses and negative equity. [BusinessWeek] [Wall Street Journal (sub)]
  • To compensate for property that fails to sell, real estate agents in Boston are falling back on the deceptive practice of canceling the listing in MLS and then creating a new listing so that the property appears as new to the market. There were 10,606 MLS cancellations in the first six months of 2005, up from 9,722 cancellations in the first six months of 2004 and 3,736 in 2001. "The number of canceled listings in Massachusetts has nearly tripled since 2001... In a recent spot check of houses for sale on MLS in Middlesex County, Barry Nystedt, president of the Massachusetts Association of Buyer Agents, said one in four listings canceled between May 25 and June 25 was recreated by the same firm with a new MLS number." [Boston Globe]
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National (US) Info

  • Visit the Wikipedia article on the United States housing bubble for another excellent overview of the bubble on a national scale.
  • It is actually now cheaper to rent than to buy in many areas even after you factor in accumulated equity and tax savings. [The Economist]
  • Yale professor Robert J. Shiller released the first edition of his prophetic book warning of a stock market bubble weeks before the stock market began its epic crash in 2000. He recently released an updated second edition in late February, 2005 with similar warnings of froth in the real estate market. This book is very highly recommended and is quite readable despite the complexity of the subject. [Irrational Exuberance] [Amazon.com]
  • The current nationwide housing boom has been fueled in large part by historically low interest rates and an increase in the use of risky mortgages. Buyers may find that their monthly payments will skyrocket once the introductory period of their mortgage ends and the adjustable rate kicks in. In 2005, only $83 billion, or 1 percent, of mortgage debt will switch to an adjustable rate. In 2007, this number will leap to $1 trillion, or about 12 percent. [Herald Tribune]
>>> Discuss the national and worldwide housing bubbles now!
 

Boston Bubble News & Interesting Links

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Legend: Info/Broken? Info/Broken? Discuss Discuss
2023-01-09
Info/Broken? - Mortgage buydowns are the hot new thing helping the housing market
Discuss - Mortgage buydowns are the hot new thing helping the housing market
Mortgage buydowns are the hot new thing helping the housing market
2023-01-06
Info/Broken? - Home sellers are basically throwing money at buyers right now
Discuss - Home sellers are basically throwing money at buyers right now
Home sellers are basically throwing money at buyers right now
2022-04-27
Info/Broken? - Crypto Mortgages Let Homebuyers Keep Bitcoin, Put Down Nothing
Discuss - Crypto Mortgages Let Homebuyers Keep Bitcoin, Put Down Nothing
Crypto Mortgages Let Homebuyers Keep Bitcoin, Put Down Nothing
2021-11-02
Info/Broken? - Zillow Seeks to Sell 7,000 Homes for $2.8 Billion After Flipping Halt
Discuss - Zillow Seeks to Sell 7,000 Homes for $2.8 Billion After Flipping Halt
Zillow Seeks to Sell 7,000 Homes for $2.8 Billion After Flipping Halt
2021-02-20
Info/Broken? - Rent Prices Are Falling in East Boston - Sort Of
Discuss - Rent Prices Are Falling in East Boston - Sort Of
Rent Prices Are Falling in East Boston - Sort Of
2020-08-19
Info/Broken? - Renter's Market in Boston
Discuss - Renter's Market in Boston
Renter's Market in Boston
2020-04-13
Info/Broken? - JPMorgan Chase to raise mortgage borrowing standards as economic outlook darkens
Discuss - JPMorgan Chase to raise mortgage borrowing standards as economic outlook darkens
JPMorgan Chase to raise mortgage borrowing standards as economic outlook darkens
2019-12-27
Info/Broken? - Boston's housing market hits a tepid patch
Discuss - Boston's housing market hits a tepid patch
Boston's housing market hits a tepid patch
2019-11-20
Info/Broken? - Boston home price futures, Nov 2019 update
Discuss - Boston home price futures, Nov 2019 update
Boston home price futures, Nov 2019 update
2019-03-25
Info/Broken? - Trading activity on BOS Case Shiller home price index futures
Discuss - Trading activity on BOS Case Shiller home price index futures
Trading activity on BOS Case Shiller home price index futures
2019-01-25
Info/Broken? - Boston housing futures drop ~3% for Nov 2020
Discuss - Boston housing futures drop ~3% for Nov 2020
Boston housing futures drop ~3% for Nov 2020
2018-10-14
Info/Broken? - Thousands line up for zero-down-payment, subprime mortgages
Discuss - Thousands line up for zero-down-payment, subprime mortgages
Thousands line up for zero-down-payment, subprime mortgages
2018-09-14
Info/Broken? - Nouriel Roubini: We are due a recession in 2020 - and we will lack the tools to fight it
Discuss - Nouriel Roubini: We are due a recession in 2020 - and we will lack the tools to fight it
Nouriel Roubini: We are due a recession in 2020 - and we will lack the tools to fight it
2018-06-21
Info/Broken? - Boston home price futures, Jun 2018 update
Discuss - Boston home price futures, Jun 2018 update
Boston home price futures, Jun 2018 update
2018-06-21
Info/Broken? - Bezos, Buffett, Dimon health venture will be based in Boston
Discuss - Bezos, Buffett, Dimon health venture will be based in Boston
Bezos, Buffett, Dimon health venture will be based in Boston
2018-04-17
Info/Broken? - 2018 Q1 Boston Housing Futures Update - Slowing Appreciation Expected - ~Zero Real Appreciation in 2020?
Discuss - 2018 Q1 Boston Housing Futures Update - Slowing Appreciation Expected - ~Zero Real Appreciation in 2020?
2018 Q1 Boston Housing Futures Update - Slowing Appreciation Expected - ~Zero Real Appreciation in 2020?
2018-03-19
Info/Broken? - MassHousing reintroduces zero down mortgages
Discuss - MassHousing reintroduces zero down mortgages
MassHousing reintroduces zero down mortgages
2017-12-15
Info/Broken? - Boston home price futures, Dec 2017 update
Discuss - Boston home price futures, Dec 2017 update
Boston home price futures, Dec 2017 update
2017-11-06
Info/Broken? - Urban Institute: Boston May Be In A Real Estate Bubble
Discuss - Urban Institute: Boston May Be In A Real Estate Bubble
Urban Institute: Boston May Be In A Real Estate Bubble
2017-11-03
Info/Broken? - Tax plan could hit Boston-area homebuyers. If it happens
Discuss - Tax plan could hit Boston-area homebuyers. If it happens
Tax plan could hit Boston-area homebuyers. If it happens
2017-10-16
Info/Broken? - Boston home price futures, Oct 2017 update
Discuss - Boston home price futures, Oct 2017 update
Boston home price futures, Oct 2017 update
2017-04-11
Info/Broken? - Boston's broken real estate market is getting worse
Discuss - Boston's broken real estate market is getting worse
Boston's broken real estate market is getting worse
2017-02-22
Info/Broken? - BurkeyLoan to offer 120% LTV mortgage that also pays student loans
Discuss - BurkeyLoan to offer 120% LTV mortgage that also pays student loans
BurkeyLoan to offer 120% LTV mortgage that also pays student loans
2017-02-22
Info/Broken? - Why Trump's Immigration Crackdown Could Sink U.S. Home Prices
Discuss - Why Trump's Immigration Crackdown Could Sink U.S. Home Prices
Why Trump's Immigration Crackdown Could Sink U.S. Home Prices
2017-02-21
Info/Broken? - Fannie, Freddie shares dive after U.S. appeals court ruling
Discuss - Fannie, Freddie shares dive after U.S. appeals court ruling
Fannie, Freddie shares dive after U.S. appeals court ruling
2017-01-20
Info/Broken? - HUD suspends FHA mortgage insurance rate cut an hour after Trump takes office
Discuss - HUD suspends FHA mortgage insurance rate cut an hour after Trump takes office
HUD suspends FHA mortgage insurance rate cut an hour after Trump takes office
2016-12-12
Info/Broken? - Prepare Your Portfolio Now For "Trumpflation"
Discuss - Prepare Your Portfolio Now For "Trumpflation"
Prepare Your Portfolio Now For "Trumpflation"
2016-07-06
Info/Broken? - Treasury yields plunge to all-time lows
Discuss - Treasury yields plunge to all-time lows
Treasury yields plunge to all-time lows
2016-04-29
Info/Broken? - Boston housing inventory trends Apr 2007 - Mar 2016
Discuss - Boston housing inventory trends Apr 2007 - Mar 2016
Boston housing inventory trends Apr 2007 - Mar 2016
2016-04-18
Info/Broken? - Updated graph of Boston home price futures (nominal)
Discuss - Updated graph of Boston home price futures (nominal)
Updated graph of Boston home price futures (nominal)
2016-04-14
Info/Broken? - Top broker warns Boston-area homebuyers to stop making "crazy offers"
Discuss - Top broker warns Boston-area homebuyers to stop making "crazy offers"
Top broker warns Boston-area homebuyers to stop making "crazy offers"
2016-04-08
Info/Broken? - Boston suburban home prices are down in 2016
Discuss - Boston suburban home prices are down in 2016
Boston suburban home prices are down in 2016
2016-01-23
Info/Broken? - Forbes: Boston 3rd most overpriced US city
Discuss - Forbes: Boston 3rd most overpriced US city
Forbes: Boston 3rd most overpriced US city
2016-01-06
Info/Broken? - Middlesex North 2015 Recording Statistics
Discuss - Middlesex North 2015 Recording Statistics
Middlesex North 2015 Recording Statistics
2016-01-06
Info/Broken? - Mortgage Rate Watch: Farewell, 3 Percent
Discuss - Mortgage Rate Watch: Farewell, 3 Percent
Mortgage Rate Watch: Farewell, 3 Percent
2016-01-05
Info/Broken? - Boston housing inventory trends Apr 2007 - Nov 2015
Discuss - Boston housing inventory trends Apr 2007 - Nov 2015
Boston housing inventory trends Apr 2007 - Nov 2015
2016-01-01
Info/Broken? - MA SFH Nov 2015 vs Nov 2014 - MAR: nominal median up 4.5%, volume up 8.1%
Discuss - MA SFH Nov 2015 vs Nov 2014 - MAR: nominal median up 4.5%, volume up 8.1%
MA SFH Nov 2015 vs Nov 2014 - MAR: nominal median up 4.5%, volume up 8.1%
2016-01-01
Info/Broken? - MA SFH Nov 2015 vs Nov 2014 - Warren Group: nominal median up 2.2%, volume up 10.3%
Discuss - MA SFH Nov 2015 vs Nov 2014 - Warren Group: nominal median up 2.2%, volume up 10.3%
MA SFH Nov 2015 vs Nov 2014 - Warren Group: nominal median up 2.2%, volume up 10.3%
2015-12-31
Info/Broken? - Boston-area real estate stocks disappoint in 2015
Discuss - Boston-area real estate stocks disappoint in 2015
Boston-area real estate stocks disappoint in 2015
2015-12-30
Info/Broken? - Surging house prices almost entirely responsible for growing returns on capital
Discuss - Surging house prices almost entirely responsible for growing returns on capital
Surging house prices almost entirely responsible for growing returns on capital
2015-12-16
Info/Broken? - Fed raises rates for 1st time in nearly a decade
Discuss - Fed raises rates for 1st time in nearly a decade
Fed raises rates for 1st time in nearly a decade
2015-12-14
Info/Broken? - Boston among metros that experts worry are headed toward a housing bubble
Discuss - Boston among metros that experts worry are headed toward a housing bubble
Boston among metros that experts worry are headed toward a housing bubble
2015-12-10
Info/Broken? - Cancellation of expensive MBTA Green Line extension remains on the table for MassDOT
Discuss - Cancellation of expensive MBTA Green Line extension remains on the table for MassDOT
Cancellation of expensive MBTA Green Line extension remains on the table for MassDOT
2015-12-09
Info/Broken? - Home prices are jumping in Boston suburbs that border even pricier towns
Discuss - Home prices are jumping in Boston suburbs that border even pricier towns
Home prices are jumping in Boston suburbs that border even pricier towns
2015-12-08
Info/Broken? - Priced Out: Boston's Real Estate Boom And What We Lose If Only The Rich Can Buy In
Discuss - Priced Out: Boston's Real Estate Boom And What We Lose If Only The Rich Can Buy In
Priced Out: Boston's Real Estate Boom And What We Lose If Only The Rich Can Buy In

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2022       1                
2021   1                 1  
2020       1       1        
2019 1   1               1 1
2018     1 1   2     1 1    
2017 1 3   1           1 2 1
2016 6     4     1         1
2015       1 1   3   1 10 14 9
2014 10 11 13 6 6 3 4 3 4   6 2
2013 25 14 13 6 12 18 11 18 8 15 11 9
2012 24 23 27 19 16 6 9 11 7 7 8 13
2011 38 46 45 44 38 45 41 33 21 22 26 31
2010 51 40 63 63 42 48 45 42 40 52 36 43
2009 52 52 59 63 56 37 53 50 52 68 56 54
2008 76 79 77 71 69 51 56 49 66 61 42 48
2007 63 36 85 60 55 45 62 59 52 76 60 60
2006 24 19 40 46 59 45 34 42 44 50 57 49
2005               41 28 18 17 23
 

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