More news...

For the last several years, real estate has been in a pricing bubble. Prices have been substantially higher than historical relationships to incomes and rents would justify. While prices have started to decline, they are still abnormally high compared to these core fundamentals. This website is focused on analyzing the housing bubble, its aftermath, and real estate in general as it pertains to the Greater Boston Area.
 
Site Guide    Discussion Forums  |  Boston-Specific Info  |  National (US) Info  |  News & Links   
  

Boston-Specific Info

  • Boston Futures: For Greater Boston real estate prices from 1987 through the present and looking several years into the future, see the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Boston snapshot with futures (both before and after inflation). The futures markets are probably the most unbiased predictor of where housing prices are headed.
  • Price/Income: For a gauge of how overpriced the market is, see the latest report on the Greater Boston price to income ratio.
  • Inflation Adjusted: See the latest report on Massachusetts single family home prices for prices as typically reported by the local media but adjusted for inflation.
  • Price/Rent: Comparing prices to rents can help illuminate an overpriced market since many hypothetical justifications for higher home prices should raise rents as well. See the latest report on the Boston MSA price to rent ratio.
  • The population of the Greater Boston Area was declining as the housing market posted its most exceptional gains during the bubble. One of the fallacious arguments which was used to contest the existence of a housing bubble was that a growing population was pushing up the natural price of property. While that argument is flawed in general, it is especially wrong when the population is declining. [Boston Globe] [Boston Bubble]
  • The Wall Street Journal has identified Boston as one of the metropolitan areas in the US where it is cheaper to rent than to buy. Their data goes from 2001, when it was already cheaper to rent, to 2004 when the difference was even more pronounced. The Economist also published an article showing that renting is cheaper, and although it does not focus on Boston, it is very thorough about including various expenses and tax benefits that the Wall Street Journal left out. [Wall Street Journal] [The Economist]
  • Consumer Reports has rated real estate in the Boston market as "Overpriced" and pegged it at 24% over the affordable price as of Q4 2004. [Consumer Reports]
  • The number of homes sold in Massachusetts has been plummeting. For the third quarter of 2006 (the most recently reported quarter as of this writing), home sales have fallen 23% compared with the same quarter one year earlier. This despite the fact that home sales were already on the decline in 2005. [Worcester Telegram] [WCVB] [Milford Daily News]
  • Foreclosures are rising sharply in Greater Boston and Massachusetts. There were more foreclosures in the first nine months of 2006 than in all of 2005, and as of this writing (in November 2006), Massachusetts is on track to break the all time record in 2006. [Boston Globe] [Lowell Sun]
  • Boston and Massachusetts are the typical exceptions that people use to qualify their statements when they say that real estate prices don't fall. Boston and Massachusetts prices have fallen in the past, even in nominal terms (when adjusted for inflation, the fall is even more pronounced). Bear in mind that even if prices decline merely by the same percent that they have in the past, the leverage (a.k.a., margin or mortgage) used to purchase the homes must be taken into consideration - the substantially higher number of zero down and negative amortization loans will leave a lot of people with heavy losses and negative equity. [BusinessWeek] [Wall Street Journal (sub)]
  • To compensate for property that fails to sell, real estate agents in Boston are falling back on the deceptive practice of canceling the listing in MLS and then creating a new listing so that the property appears as new to the market. There were 10,606 MLS cancellations in the first six months of 2005, up from 9,722 cancellations in the first six months of 2004 and 3,736 in 2001. "The number of canceled listings in Massachusetts has nearly tripled since 2001... In a recent spot check of houses for sale on MLS in Middlesex County, Barry Nystedt, president of the Massachusetts Association of Buyer Agents, said one in four listings canceled between May 25 and June 25 was recreated by the same firm with a new MLS number." [Boston Globe]
>>> Discuss the Boston bubble now!
 

PARTNER LINKS

Furnished Apartments Boston
Stylish apartments throughout the
Downtown Boston area.
www.firstbostonrealty.com
 
Do-it-yourself homebuyers
Think Outside the Commission
100% buyer agency rebate option
realestatecafe.com
 
Advertise on Boston Bubble
Buyer brokers and motivated
sellers, reach potential buyers.
www.bostonbubble.com
 

YOUR AD HERE

 

National (US) Info

  • Visit Patrick Killelea's housing crash blog. It is a fantastic resource providing ample quantitative background into the housing bubble.
  • Visit the Wikipedia article on the United States housing bubble for another excellent overview of the bubble on a national scale.
  • It is actually now cheaper to rent than to buy in many areas even after you factor in accumulated equity and tax savings. [The Economist]
  • Yale professor Robert J. Shiller released the first edition of his prophetic book warning of a stock market bubble weeks before the stock market began its epic crash in 2000. He recently released an updated second edition in late February, 2005 with similar warnings of froth in the real estate market. This book is very highly recommended and is quite readable despite the complexity of the subject. [Irrational Exuberance] [Amazon.com]
  • The current nationwide housing boom has been fueled in large part by historically low interest rates and an increase in the use of risky mortgages. Buyers may find that their monthly payments will skyrocket once the introductory period of their mortgage ends and the adjustable rate kicks in. In 2005, only $83 billion, or 1 percent, of mortgage debt will switch to an adjustable rate. In 2007, this number will leap to $1 trillion, or about 12 percent. [Herald Tribune]
>>> Discuss the national and worldwide housing bubbles now!
 

Boston Bubble News & Interesting Links

Get Updates: RSS Feed (What's RSS? -- RSS Readers: Feedly, Firefox)
Suggest a Link: News & Reference Suggestion Forum
Legend: Info/Broken? Info/Broken? Discuss Discuss
<< << << Show Recent Links
2008-11-28
Info/Broken? - S&P/Case-Shiller Boston Snapshot: Nov 25, 2008 - Market pricing in further real decline of 17.24% for a 34.94% real decline from peak
Discuss - S&P/Case-Shiller Boston Snapshot: Nov 25, 2008 - Market pricing in further real decline of 17.24% for a 34.94% real decline from peak
S&P/Case-Shiller Boston Snapshot: Nov 25, 2008 - Market pricing in further real decline of 17.24% for a 34.94% real decline from peak
2008-11-28
Info/Broken? - Boston Bubble Brief, Oct 2008: MA SFH real prices fall 14.06% YOY, continue below estimate for 2001
Discuss - Boston Bubble Brief, Oct 2008: MA SFH real prices fall 14.06% YOY, continue below estimate for 2001
Boston Bubble Brief, Oct 2008: MA SFH real prices fall 14.06% YOY, continue below estimate for 2001
2008-11-26
Info/Broken? - S&P/Case-Shiller Boston Sep 2008 vs Sep 2007: down 5.71% nominally, Boston condo index debuts with 2.90% YOY decline
Discuss - S&P/Case-Shiller Boston Sep 2008 vs Sep 2007: down 5.71% nominally, Boston condo index debuts with 2.90% YOY decline
S&P/Case-Shiller Boston Sep 2008 vs Sep 2007: down 5.71% nominally, Boston condo index debuts with 2.90% YOY decline
2008-11-26
Info/Broken? - Middlesex North Registry of Deeds early stats for Nov 2008 vs Nov 2007: deeds up 8%, mortgages down 34%, foreclosure deeds up 26%, orders of notice down 25%
Discuss - Middlesex North Registry of Deeds early stats for Nov 2008 vs Nov 2007: deeds up 8%, mortgages down 34%, foreclosure deeds up 26%, orders of notice down 25%
Middlesex North Registry of Deeds early stats for Nov 2008 vs Nov 2007: deeds up 8%, mortgages down 34%, foreclosure deeds up 26%, orders of notice down 25%
2008-11-26
Info/Broken? - Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: October 2008
Discuss - Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: October 2008
Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: October 2008
2008-11-26
Info/Broken? - Eviction spike leaving more Bay Staters out in the cold - Foreclosures driving homelessness
Discuss - Eviction spike leaving more Bay Staters out in the cold - Foreclosures driving homelessness
Eviction spike leaving more Bay Staters out in the cold - Foreclosures driving homelessness
2008-11-25
Info/Broken? - Oct 2008 vs Oct 2007 nominal prices for MA SFH -- MAR: -10.6%, Warren Group: -13.9%
Discuss - Oct 2008 vs Oct 2007 nominal prices for MA SFH -- MAR: -10.6%, Warren Group: -13.9%
Oct 2008 vs Oct 2007 nominal prices for MA SFH -- MAR: -10.6%, Warren Group: -13.9%
2008-11-24
Info/Broken? - Homeowners fall victim to mortgage scams
Discuss - Homeowners fall victim to mortgage scams
Homeowners fall victim to mortgage scams
2008-11-24
Info/Broken? - Fed pledges top $7.4 trillion, but regulators refuse to disclose recipients or collateral
Discuss - Fed pledges top $7.4 trillion, but regulators refuse to disclose recipients or collateral
Fed pledges top $7.4 trillion, but regulators refuse to disclose recipients or collateral
2008-11-24
Info/Broken? - Unemployment in MA and RI both rise, but spread widens
Discuss - Unemployment in MA and RI both rise, but spread widens
Unemployment in MA and RI both rise, but spread widens
2008-11-23
Info/Broken? - FHA-backed loans: the next subprime crisis?
Discuss - FHA-backed loans: the next subprime crisis?
FHA-backed loans: the next subprime crisis?
2008-11-21
Info/Broken? - Sharp rise forecast in Bay State job losses - Unemployment will reach 8.3% by end of decade, group says
Discuss - Sharp rise forecast in Bay State job losses - Unemployment will reach 8.3% by end of decade, group says
Sharp rise forecast in Bay State job losses - Unemployment will reach 8.3% by end of decade, group says
2008-11-21
Info/Broken? - S&P to launch new Case-Shiller index for Boston condos
Discuss - S&P to launch new Case-Shiller index for Boston condos
S&P to launch new Case-Shiller index for Boston condos
2008-11-20
Info/Broken? - Mass. unemployment rises to 5.5 percent
Discuss - Mass. unemployment rises to 5.5 percent
Mass. unemployment rises to 5.5 percent
2008-11-20
Info/Broken? - Mass. foreclosure petitions drop in October
Discuss - Mass. foreclosure petitions drop in October
Mass. foreclosure petitions drop in October
2008-11-19
Info/Broken? - Slow sales at Clarendon blamed on economy
Discuss - Slow sales at Clarendon blamed on economy
Slow sales at Clarendon blamed on economy
2008-11-19
Info/Broken? - Heavy toll for East Boston
Discuss - Heavy toll for East Boston
Heavy toll for East Boston
2008-11-18
Info/Broken? - Reduce your mortgage by not paying?
Discuss - Reduce your mortgage by not paying?
Reduce your mortgage by not paying?
2008-11-18
Info/Broken? - Boston area neighborhoods with fastest price reductions
Discuss - Boston area neighborhoods with fastest price reductions
Boston area neighborhoods with fastest price reductions
2008-11-18
Info/Broken? - Job cuts threaten Citi's expansion in Mass.
Discuss - Job cuts threaten Citi's expansion in Mass.
Job cuts threaten Citi's expansion in Mass.
2008-11-18
Info/Broken? - NAR gives up on its blog
Discuss - NAR gives up on its blog
NAR gives up on its blog
2008-11-17
Info/Broken? - Nouvell Monstre - Crescendo of pop-marketed luxury lifestyle and faux culture is symptomatic of failed system
Discuss - Nouvell Monstre - Crescendo of pop-marketed luxury lifestyle and faux culture is symptomatic of failed system
Nouvell Monstre - Crescendo of pop-marketed luxury lifestyle and faux culture is symptomatic of failed system
2008-11-14
Info/Broken? - Melrose foreclosures increase dramatically in recent months
Discuss - Melrose foreclosures increase dramatically in recent months
Melrose foreclosures increase dramatically in recent months
2008-11-13
Info/Broken? - Waltham tops Forbes magazine's home sale lists
Discuss - Waltham tops Forbes magazine's home sale lists
Waltham tops Forbes magazine's home sale lists
2008-11-13
Info/Broken? - Natick mall condo buyers eye developer's money woes
Discuss - Natick mall condo buyers eye developer's money woes
Natick mall condo buyers eye developer's money woes
2008-11-12
Info/Broken? - Zillow estimates 14.1% of Hub owners are under water
Discuss - Zillow estimates 14.1% of Hub owners are under water
Zillow estimates 14.1% of Hub owners are under water
2008-11-12
Info/Broken? - Zillow estimates Boston nominal prices fell 1% annualized each year for the last 5 years, 1/3 of US sellers in last year have lost money
Discuss - Zillow estimates Boston nominal prices fell 1% annualized each year for the last 5 years, 1/3 of US sellers in last year have lost money
Zillow estimates Boston nominal prices fell 1% annualized each year for the last 5 years, 1/3 of US sellers in last year have lost money
2008-11-12
Info/Broken? - Natick Collection owner risks default (recall the Nouvelle is attached)
Discuss - Natick Collection owner risks default (recall the Nouvelle is attached)
Natick Collection owner risks default (recall the Nouvelle is attached)
2008-11-11
Info/Broken? - Fan Pier work stalls, leaving future tenant Vertex in bind
Discuss - Fan Pier work stalls, leaving future tenant Vertex in bind
Fan Pier work stalls, leaving future tenant Vertex in bind
2008-11-10
Info/Broken? - Mounting job losses fueling US foreclosures
Discuss - Mounting job losses fueling US foreclosures
Mounting job losses fueling US foreclosures
2008-11-07
Info/Broken? - NARcasting The Future: November 2008 - Yun: "we're still in a broad period of stabilization"
Discuss - NARcasting The Future: November 2008 - Yun: "we're still in a broad period of stabilization"
NARcasting The Future: November 2008 - Yun: "we're still in a broad period of stabilization"
2008-11-07
Info/Broken? - Globe chronicling experiment of group trying to flip a property starting now
Discuss - Globe chronicling experiment of group trying to flip a property starting now
Globe chronicling experiment of group trying to flip a property starting now
2008-11-06
Info/Broken? - Boston 2009 Forecast: -12.5%
Discuss - Boston 2009 Forecast: -12.5%
Boston 2009 Forecast: -12.5%
2008-11-06
Info/Broken? - Tonight: Moses Greeley Parker Lecture on the Foreclosure Crisis
Discuss - Tonight: Moses Greeley Parker Lecture on the Foreclosure Crisis
Tonight: Moses Greeley Parker Lecture on the Foreclosure Crisis
2008-11-06
Info/Broken? - $1B budget deficit looms, despite spending cuts and defeat of ballot question to eliminate income tax
Discuss - $1B budget deficit looms, despite spending cuts and defeat of ballot question to eliminate income tax
$1B budget deficit looms, despite spending cuts and defeat of ballot question to eliminate income tax
2008-11-05
Info/Broken? - Middlesex North Registry of Deeds Oct 2008 Stats: "Situation is deteriorating," deeds down 9%, mortgages down 25%, foreclosures up 11%, orders of notice up 48%
Discuss - Middlesex North Registry of Deeds Oct 2008 Stats: "Situation is deteriorating," deeds down 9%, mortgages down 25%, foreclosures up 11%, orders of notice up 48%
Middlesex North Registry of Deeds Oct 2008 Stats: "Situation is deteriorating," deeds down 9%, mortgages down 25%, foreclosures up 11%, orders of notice up 48%
2008-11-05
Info/Broken? - The Arlington Artifice: September 2008 - Lowest sales since 1991, year-to-date median continues decline
Discuss - The Arlington Artifice: September 2008 - Lowest sales since 1991, year-to-date median continues decline
The Arlington Artifice: September 2008 - Lowest sales since 1991, year-to-date median continues decline
2008-11-05
Info/Broken? - Boston area cities, towns, and neighborhoods with most price reductions
Discuss - Boston area cities, towns, and neighborhoods with most price reductions
Boston area cities, towns, and neighborhoods with most price reductions
2008-11-05
Info/Broken? - Complaints of too many for-sale signs on the rise in the Back Bay
Discuss - Complaints of too many for-sale signs on the rise in the Back Bay
Complaints of too many for-sale signs on the rise in the Back Bay
2008-11-04
Info/Broken? - Massachusetts voters have rejected almost two-thirds of overrides this year
Discuss - Massachusetts voters have rejected almost two-thirds of overrides this year
Massachusetts voters have rejected almost two-thirds of overrides this year
2008-11-03
Info/Broken? - Marked down to move - A battered housing market is forcing sellers in top-tier communities to cut prices
Discuss - Marked down to move - A battered housing market is forcing sellers in top-tier communities to cut prices
Marked down to move - A battered housing market is forcing sellers in top-tier communities to cut prices
2008-11-03
Info/Broken? - House valuations drop, but tax bills won't
Discuss - House valuations drop, but tax bills won't
House valuations drop, but tax bills won't

News & Interesting Links Index
Recent | All
  Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014 10 11 13 6 6 3 4 3 4      
2013 25 14 13 6 12 18 11 18 8 15 11 9
2012 24 23 27 19 16 6 9 11 7 7 8 13
2011 38 46 45 44 38 45 41 33 21 22 26 31
2010 51 40 63 63 42 48 45 42 40 52 36 43
2009 52 52 59 63 56 37 53 50 52 68 56 54
2008 76 79 77 71 69 51 56 49 66 61 42 48
2007 63 36 85 60 55 45 62 59 52 76 60 60
2006 24 19 40 46 59 45 34 42 44 50 57 49
2005               41 28 18 17 23

All content on this website Copyright 2005 - 2014, BostonBubble.com, except where noted. All rights reserved. Privacy policy in effect.

DISCLAIMER: The information provided on this website and in the associated forums comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY, expressed or implied. You assume all risk for your own use of the information provided as the accuracy of the information is in no way guaranteed. As always, cross check information that you would deem useful against multiple, reliable, independent resources. The opinions expressed belong to the individual authors and not necessarily to other parties.