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For the last several years, real estate has been in a pricing bubble. Prices have been substantially higher than historical relationships to incomes and rents would justify. While prices have started to decline, they are still abnormally high compared to these core fundamentals. This website is focused on analyzing the housing bubble, its aftermath, and real estate in general as it pertains to the Greater Boston Area.
 
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Boston-Specific Info

  • Boston Futures: For Greater Boston real estate prices from 1987 through the present and looking several years into the future, see the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Boston snapshot with futures (both before and after inflation). The futures markets are probably the most unbiased predictor of where housing prices are headed.
  • Price/Income: For a gauge of how overpriced the market is, see the latest report on the Greater Boston price to income ratio.
  • Inflation Adjusted: See the latest report on Massachusetts single family home prices for prices as typically reported by the local media but adjusted for inflation.
  • Price/Rent: Comparing prices to rents can help illuminate an overpriced market since many hypothetical justifications for higher home prices should raise rents as well. See the latest report on the Boston MSA price to rent ratio.
  • The population of the Greater Boston Area was declining as the housing market posted its most exceptional gains during the bubble. One of the fallacious arguments which was used to contest the existence of a housing bubble was that a growing population was pushing up the natural price of property. While that argument is flawed in general, it is especially wrong when the population is declining. [Boston Globe] [Boston Bubble]
  • The Wall Street Journal has identified Boston as one of the metropolitan areas in the US where it is cheaper to rent than to buy. Their data goes from 2001, when it was already cheaper to rent, to 2004 when the difference was even more pronounced. The Economist also published an article showing that renting is cheaper, and although it does not focus on Boston, it is very thorough about including various expenses and tax benefits that the Wall Street Journal left out. [Wall Street Journal] [The Economist]
  • Consumer Reports has rated real estate in the Boston market as "Overpriced" and pegged it at 24% over the affordable price as of Q4 2004. [Consumer Reports]
  • The number of homes sold in Massachusetts has been plummeting. For the third quarter of 2006 (the most recently reported quarter as of this writing), home sales have fallen 23% compared with the same quarter one year earlier. This despite the fact that home sales were already on the decline in 2005. [Worcester Telegram] [WCVB] [Milford Daily News]
  • Foreclosures are rising sharply in Greater Boston and Massachusetts. There were more foreclosures in the first nine months of 2006 than in all of 2005, and as of this writing (in November 2006), Massachusetts is on track to break the all time record in 2006. [Boston Globe] [Lowell Sun]
  • Boston and Massachusetts are the typical exceptions that people use to qualify their statements when they say that real estate prices don't fall. Boston and Massachusetts prices have fallen in the past, even in nominal terms (when adjusted for inflation, the fall is even more pronounced). Bear in mind that even if prices decline merely by the same percent that they have in the past, the leverage (a.k.a., margin or mortgage) used to purchase the homes must be taken into consideration - the substantially higher number of zero down and negative amortization loans will leave a lot of people with heavy losses and negative equity. [BusinessWeek] [Wall Street Journal (sub)]
  • To compensate for property that fails to sell, real estate agents in Boston are falling back on the deceptive practice of canceling the listing in MLS and then creating a new listing so that the property appears as new to the market. There were 10,606 MLS cancellations in the first six months of 2005, up from 9,722 cancellations in the first six months of 2004 and 3,736 in 2001. "The number of canceled listings in Massachusetts has nearly tripled since 2001... In a recent spot check of houses for sale on MLS in Middlesex County, Barry Nystedt, president of the Massachusetts Association of Buyer Agents, said one in four listings canceled between May 25 and June 25 was recreated by the same firm with a new MLS number." [Boston Globe]
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National (US) Info

  • Visit Patrick Killelea's housing crash blog. It is a fantastic resource providing ample quantitative background into the housing bubble.
  • Visit the Wikipedia article on the United States housing bubble for another excellent overview of the bubble on a national scale.
  • It is actually now cheaper to rent than to buy in many areas even after you factor in accumulated equity and tax savings. [The Economist]
  • Yale professor Robert J. Shiller released the first edition of his prophetic book warning of a stock market bubble weeks before the stock market began its epic crash in 2000. He recently released an updated second edition in late February, 2005 with similar warnings of froth in the real estate market. This book is very highly recommended and is quite readable despite the complexity of the subject. [Irrational Exuberance] [Amazon.com]
  • The current nationwide housing boom has been fueled in large part by historically low interest rates and an increase in the use of risky mortgages. Buyers may find that their monthly payments will skyrocket once the introductory period of their mortgage ends and the adjustable rate kicks in. In 2005, only $83 billion, or 1 percent, of mortgage debt will switch to an adjustable rate. In 2007, this number will leap to $1 trillion, or about 12 percent. [Herald Tribune]
>>> Discuss the national and worldwide housing bubbles now!
 

Boston Bubble News & Interesting Links

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2008-01-31
Info/Broken? - Globe revenue slumps, weak real estate ad sales partially to blame
Discuss - Globe revenue slumps, weak real estate ad sales partially to blame
Globe revenue slumps, weak real estate ad sales partially to blame
2008-01-31
Info/Broken? - Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales: December 2007
Discuss - Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales: December 2007
Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales: December 2007
2008-01-31
Info/Broken? - Boston's new houses of shame
Discuss - Boston's new houses of shame
Boston's new houses of shame
2008-01-30
Info/Broken? - Paulson says U.S. housing correction "necessary"
Discuss - Paulson says U.S. housing correction "necessary"
Paulson says U.S. housing correction "necessary"
2008-01-30
Info/Broken? - Middleton condo auction nets $15.6M
Discuss - Middleton condo auction nets $15.6M
Middleton condo auction nets $15.6M
2008-01-30
Info/Broken? - City of Boston presses for upkeep of foreclosed properties
Discuss - City of Boston presses for upkeep of foreclosed properties
City of Boston presses for upkeep of foreclosed properties
2008-01-29
Info/Broken? - S&P/Case-Shiller Index for Boston down 3.01% nominally in Nov 2007 vs Nov 2006
Discuss - S&P/Case-Shiller Index for Boston down 3.01% nominally in Nov 2007 vs Nov 2006
S&P/Case-Shiller Index for Boston down 3.01% nominally in Nov 2007 vs Nov 2006
2008-01-29
Info/Broken? - 60 Minutes full video: House Of Cards - Steve Kroft reports on US sub-prime mortgage meltdown
Discuss - 60 Minutes full video: House Of Cards - Steve Kroft reports on US sub-prime mortgage meltdown
60 Minutes full video: House Of Cards - Steve Kroft reports on US sub-prime mortgage meltdown
2008-01-29
Info/Broken? - 60 Minutes interview with couple walking away from mortgage even though they can afford the payments
Discuss - 60 Minutes interview with couple walking away from mortgage even though they can afford the payments
60 Minutes interview with couple walking away from mortgage even though they can afford the payments
2008-01-28
Info/Broken? - Mass. housing market decline offers little hope for '08 recovery
Discuss - Mass. housing market decline offers little hope for '08 recovery
Mass. housing market decline offers little hope for '08 recovery
2008-01-28
Info/Broken? - A crisis rumbles along Route 2 - Low incomes, economic isolation fuel foreclosures in northern Worcester County; some salvage credit by selling for less than they owe
Discuss - A crisis rumbles along Route 2 - Low incomes, economic isolation fuel foreclosures in northern Worcester County; some salvage credit by selling for less than they owe
A crisis rumbles along Route 2 - Low incomes, economic isolation fuel foreclosures in northern Worcester County; some salvage credit by selling for less than they owe
2008-01-28
Info/Broken? - US new home sales: Biggest drop ever - Weak December sales caps 2007's record slide, with prices for the month off sharply from a year earlier
Discuss - US new home sales: Biggest drop ever - Weak December sales caps 2007's record slide, with prices for the month off sharply from a year earlier
US new home sales: Biggest drop ever - Weak December sales caps 2007's record slide, with prices for the month off sharply from a year earlier
2008-01-28
Info/Broken? - Dec 2006 vs 2007 for MA SFH: Warren Group reports nominal price plummet of 10.5%, 23.3% drop in sales; MAR reports nominal price decline of 3.6%, 20.0% drop in sales, states 2007 "was actually pretty good"
Discuss - Dec 2006 vs 2007 for MA SFH: Warren Group reports nominal price plummet of 10.5%, 23.3% drop in sales; MAR reports nominal price decline of 3.6%, 20.0% drop in sales, states 2007 "was actually pretty good"
Dec 2006 vs 2007 for MA SFH: Warren Group reports nominal price plummet of 10.5%, 23.3% drop in sales; MAR reports nominal price decline of 3.6%, 20.0% drop in sales, states 2007 "was actually pretty good"
2008-01-28
Info/Broken? - Droop in home sales infects even the subsidized market
Discuss - Droop in home sales infects even the subsidized market
Droop in home sales infects even the subsidized market
2008-01-28
Info/Broken? - Brockton condo prices fall
Discuss - Brockton condo prices fall
Brockton condo prices fall
2008-01-27
Info/Broken? - Regulator opposes stimulus plan's mortgage fix - Government agency takes stand against letting Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae buy higher-cost loans
Discuss - Regulator opposes stimulus plan's mortgage fix - Government agency takes stand against letting Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae buy higher-cost loans
Regulator opposes stimulus plan's mortgage fix - Government agency takes stand against letting Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae buy higher-cost loans
2008-01-27
Info/Broken? - Shaky economy has worried consumers cutting back
Discuss - Shaky economy has worried consumers cutting back
Shaky economy has worried consumers cutting back
2008-01-27
Info/Broken? - Five local mortgage fraud stories
Discuss - Five local mortgage fraud stories
Five local mortgage fraud stories
2008-01-26
Info/Broken? - Owners lose home, and pets suffer, too
Discuss - Owners lose home, and pets suffer, too
Owners lose home, and pets suffer, too
2008-01-26
Info/Broken? - More on recent foreclosure delayed by protests - owner not a victim of predatory lending or loan resets
Discuss - More on recent foreclosure delayed by protests - owner not a victim of predatory lending or loan resets
More on recent foreclosure delayed by protests - owner not a victim of predatory lending or loan resets
2008-01-26
Info/Broken? - A tipping point? "Foreclose me ... I'll save money"
Discuss - A tipping point? "Foreclose me ... I'll save money"
A tipping point? "Foreclose me ... I'll save money"
2008-01-25
Info/Broken? - Misleading home buyers: Buyers agents cited for conflict of interest and complicity in price inflation
Discuss - Misleading home buyers: Buyers agents cited for conflict of interest and complicity in price inflation
Misleading home buyers: Buyers agents cited for conflict of interest and complicity in price inflation
2008-01-25
Info/Broken? - Lowell foreclosures tripled in '07
Discuss - Lowell foreclosures tripled in '07
Lowell foreclosures tripled in '07
2008-01-25
Info/Broken? - Globe creating list of Boston real estate Web sites
Discuss - Globe creating list of Boston real estate Web sites
Globe creating list of Boston real estate Web sites
2008-01-25
Info/Broken? - MA Realtors' song and dance (literally)
Discuss - MA Realtors' song and dance (literally)
MA Realtors' song and dance (literally)
2008-01-25
Info/Broken? - Holden Lewis of Bankrate.com: prices will remain down despite lower rates, predicts mortgage rates to rise over next 2 months
Discuss - Holden Lewis of Bankrate.com: prices will remain down despite lower rates, predicts mortgage rates to rise over next 2 months
Holden Lewis of Bankrate.com: prices will remain down despite lower rates, predicts mortgage rates to rise over next 2 months
2008-01-24
Info/Broken? - Profits privatized, risks socialized - Economic stimulus a wealth transfer from the middle class to the rich and the reckless
Discuss - Profits privatized, risks socialized - Economic stimulus a wealth transfer from the middle class to the rich and the reckless
Profits privatized, risks socialized - Economic stimulus a wealth transfer from the middle class to the rich and the reckless
2008-01-24
Info/Broken? - NAR: 2007 first year on record to see national price drops
Discuss - NAR: 2007 first year on record to see national price drops
NAR: 2007 first year on record to see national price drops
2008-01-24
Info/Broken? - Herald Op-Ed: Bad borrowers send rest of us to poorhouse
Discuss - Herald Op-Ed: Bad borrowers send rest of us to poorhouse
Herald Op-Ed: Bad borrowers send rest of us to poorhouse
2008-01-23
Info/Broken? - Housing prices to free fall in 2008 - Merrill Lynch report: home prices to fall 15% in 2008, 10% in 2009, and more in 2010
Discuss - Housing prices to free fall in 2008 - Merrill Lynch report: home prices to fall 15% in 2008, 10% in 2009, and more in 2010
Housing prices to free fall in 2008 - Merrill Lynch report: home prices to fall 15% in 2008, 10% in 2009, and more in 2010
2008-01-23
Info/Broken? - Foreclosures in Mass. Rise 150% in 2007; December Sees Largest Increase Since August, According to The Warren Group; Auction Announcements More Than Double Compared With 2006
Discuss - Foreclosures in Mass. Rise 150% in 2007; December Sees Largest Increase Since August, According to The Warren Group; Auction Announcements More Than Double Compared With 2006
Foreclosures in Mass. Rise 150% in 2007; December Sees Largest Increase Since August, According to The Warren Group; Auction Announcements More Than Double Compared With 2006
2008-01-22
Info/Broken? - Dice jobs report: Boston IT salaries beat the national average, but jobs keep leaving Massachusetts
Discuss - Dice jobs report: Boston IT salaries beat the national average, but jobs keep leaving Massachusetts
Dice jobs report: Boston IT salaries beat the national average, but jobs keep leaving Massachusetts
2008-01-22
Info/Broken? - Local group plans to physically block evictions
Discuss - Local group plans to physically block evictions
Local group plans to physically block evictions
2008-01-22
Info/Broken? - Emergency rate cut to 3.5% - Citing weakening economic outlook, Federal Reserve cuts key interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point
Discuss - Emergency rate cut to 3.5% - Citing weakening economic outlook, Federal Reserve cuts key interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point
Emergency rate cut to 3.5% - Citing weakening economic outlook, Federal Reserve cuts key interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point
2008-01-22
Info/Broken? - The Arlington Artifice: December and Annual 2007
Discuss - The Arlington Artifice: December and Annual 2007
The Arlington Artifice: December and Annual 2007
2008-01-21
Info/Broken? - 'McMansion' ruling may cause homeowner headaches
Discuss - 'McMansion' ruling may cause homeowner headaches
'McMansion' ruling may cause homeowner headaches
2008-01-20
Info/Broken? - Mass. banks launch mortgage relief program
Discuss - Mass. banks launch mortgage relief program
Mass. banks launch mortgage relief program
2008-01-20
Info/Broken? - Inventory of unlisted homes may be approaching the number of active listings in MA
Discuss - Inventory of unlisted homes may be approaching the number of active listings in MA
Inventory of unlisted homes may be approaching the number of active listings in MA
2008-01-20
Info/Broken? - Mortgage foreclosures triple in MA in 2007 vs 2006, almost nine times 2005
Discuss - Mortgage foreclosures triple in MA in 2007 vs 2006, almost nine times 2005
Mortgage foreclosures triple in MA in 2007 vs 2006, almost nine times 2005
2008-01-19
Info/Broken? - Survey: would tax rebate affect your home buying plans?  Plus, release info for previous survey.
Discuss - Survey: would tax rebate affect your home buying plans?  Plus, release info for previous survey.
Survey: would tax rebate affect your home buying plans? Plus, release info for previous survey.
2008-01-18
Info/Broken? - The housing market has a new problem: ageing Americans
Discuss - The housing market has a new problem: ageing Americans
The housing market has a new problem: ageing Americans
2008-01-18
Info/Broken? - Sorting Out the New Housing Market
Discuss - Sorting Out the New Housing Market
Sorting Out the New Housing Market
2008-01-18
Info/Broken? - Bay State economy takes turn for the worse - Slowdown directly related to declining housing market
Discuss - Bay State economy takes turn for the worse - Slowdown directly related to declining housing market
Bay State economy takes turn for the worse - Slowdown directly related to declining housing market
2008-01-17
Info/Broken? - Slow Going For Bay State Economy - Tech A Small Bright Point
Discuss - Slow Going For Bay State Economy - Tech A Small Bright Point
Slow Going For Bay State Economy - Tech A Small Bright Point
2008-01-17
Info/Broken? - Mass. unemployment rises
Discuss - Mass. unemployment rises
Mass. unemployment rises
2008-01-17
Info/Broken? - Massachusetts price declines blamed for ripple effect on Connecticut properties
Discuss - Massachusetts price declines blamed for ripple effect on Connecticut properties
Massachusetts price declines blamed for ripple effect on Connecticut properties
2008-01-17
Info/Broken? - High end Boston properties allegedly "doing really well"
Discuss - High end Boston properties allegedly "doing really well"
High end Boston properties allegedly "doing really well"
2008-01-16
Info/Broken? - As baby boomers retire, home markets will hurt, Northeast to be hit hard
Discuss - As baby boomers retire, home markets will hurt, Northeast to be hit hard
As baby boomers retire, home markets will hurt, Northeast to be hit hard
2008-01-16
Info/Broken? - State asks court to halt 500 foreclosures by Fremont
Discuss - State asks court to halt 500 foreclosures by Fremont
State asks court to halt 500 foreclosures by Fremont
2008-01-15
Info/Broken? - Lori Dobson, Maine Senate Candidate, proposes to "outlaw, ban and prohibit" all home foreclosures nationally
Discuss - Lori Dobson, Maine Senate Candidate, proposes to "outlaw, ban and prohibit" all home foreclosures nationally
Lori Dobson, Maine Senate Candidate, proposes to "outlaw, ban and prohibit" all home foreclosures nationally
2008-01-14
Info/Broken? - Nouvelle at Natick buyer interviewed by blogger who has previously critiqued the project
Discuss - Nouvelle at Natick buyer interviewed by blogger who has previously critiqued the project
Nouvelle at Natick buyer interviewed by blogger who has previously critiqued the project
2008-01-14
Info/Broken? - 2007 foreclosure insights from Middlesex North Registry of Deeds in Lowell
Discuss - 2007 foreclosure insights from Middlesex North Registry of Deeds in Lowell
2007 foreclosure insights from Middlesex North Registry of Deeds in Lowell
2008-01-14
Info/Broken? - Springfield foreclosures jump 107% over 2006
Discuss - Springfield foreclosures jump 107% over 2006
Springfield foreclosures jump 107% over 2006
2008-01-13
Info/Broken? - Foreclosure filings take leap in Essex County
Discuss - Foreclosure filings take leap in Essex County
Foreclosure filings take leap in Essex County
2008-01-11
Info/Broken? - Will Massachusetts prices get a bump in 2008 from delayed wave of H1B visas?
Discuss - Will Massachusetts prices get a bump in 2008 from delayed wave of H1B visas?
Will Massachusetts prices get a bump in 2008 from delayed wave of H1B visas?
2008-01-10
Info/Broken? - Reflecting on big busts from New England and Japan, and projections for Massachusetts
Discuss - Reflecting on big busts from New England and Japan, and projections for Massachusetts
Reflecting on big busts from New England and Japan, and projections for Massachusetts
2008-01-10
Info/Broken? - National Lenders Manipulating Local Foreclosure Stats
Discuss - National Lenders Manipulating Local Foreclosure Stats
National Lenders Manipulating Local Foreclosure Stats
2008-01-10
Info/Broken? - SouthCoastToday.com on McMansion expansion
Discuss - SouthCoastToday.com on McMansion expansion
SouthCoastToday.com on McMansion expansion
2008-01-09
Info/Broken? - NARcasting The Future: January 2008 - further revisions to the NAR's 2007 forecast
Discuss - NARcasting The Future: January 2008 - further revisions to the NAR's 2007 forecast
NARcasting The Future: January 2008 - further revisions to the NAR's 2007 forecast
2008-01-09
Info/Broken? - Expired & canceled listings soar in MA as Petitions to Foreclose approach MLS sales
Discuss - Expired & canceled listings soar in MA as Petitions to Foreclose approach MLS sales
Expired & canceled listings soar in MA as Petitions to Foreclose approach MLS sales
2008-01-09
Info/Broken? - Worst slump in nation - Region's "jumbo" mortgages blamed
Discuss - Worst slump in nation - Region's "jumbo" mortgages blamed
Worst slump in nation - Region's "jumbo" mortgages blamed
2008-01-08
Info/Broken? - Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren: U.S. housing market on track for worst performance in half a century
Discuss - Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren: U.S. housing market on track for worst performance in half a century
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren: U.S. housing market on track for worst performance in half a century
2008-01-08
Info/Broken? - Northeast Is Toughest Place in U.S. to Sell Home, Realtors Say
Discuss - Northeast Is Toughest Place in U.S. to Sell Home, Realtors Say
Northeast Is Toughest Place in U.S. to Sell Home, Realtors Say
2008-01-08
Info/Broken? - R.I. home, condo sales fall in November
Discuss - R.I. home, condo sales fall in November
R.I. home, condo sales fall in November
2008-01-08
Info/Broken? - Barnstable County among hardest hit by foreclosures
Discuss - Barnstable County among hardest hit by foreclosures
Barnstable County among hardest hit by foreclosures
2008-01-07
Info/Broken? - Bay State foreclosures continue to rise
Discuss - Bay State foreclosures continue to rise
Bay State foreclosures continue to rise
2008-01-07
Info/Broken? - 'Subprime' named Word of the Year
Discuss - 'Subprime' named Word of the Year
'Subprime' named Word of the Year
2008-01-07
Info/Broken? - Cape property sales tank
Discuss - Cape property sales tank
Cape property sales tank
2008-01-04
Info/Broken? - Brokerage probed in big loss for Springfield due to subprime mortgage implosion
Discuss - Brokerage probed in big loss for Springfield due to subprime mortgage implosion
Brokerage probed in big loss for Springfield due to subprime mortgage implosion
2008-01-04
Info/Broken? - Foreclosures hit most exclusive Boston suburbs
Discuss - Foreclosures hit most exclusive Boston suburbs
Foreclosures hit most exclusive Boston suburbs
2008-01-04
Info/Broken? - Thousands of MLS page views over 2 to 4 years: Will Bubble-wary buyers extend wait thru 2008?
Discuss - Thousands of MLS page views over 2 to 4 years: Will Bubble-wary buyers extend wait thru 2008?
Thousands of MLS page views over 2 to 4 years: Will Bubble-wary buyers extend wait thru 2008?
2008-01-03
Info/Broken? - Springfield's investment nightmare
Discuss - Springfield's investment nightmare
Springfield's investment nightmare
2008-01-03
Info/Broken? - Mortgage broker oversight tightens in Massachusetts and six other states
Discuss - Mortgage broker oversight tightens in Massachusetts and six other states
Mortgage broker oversight tightens in Massachusetts and six other states
2008-01-02
Info/Broken? - Middlesex North Registry of Deeds 2007 Statistics: All figures way below average, except for foreclosures and homesteads, which were way above average
Discuss - Middlesex North Registry of Deeds 2007 Statistics: All figures way below average, except for foreclosures and homesteads, which were way above average
Middlesex North Registry of Deeds 2007 Statistics: All figures way below average, except for foreclosures and homesteads, which were way above average
2008-01-02
Info/Broken? - Fixes made in 2007 not enough to halt foreclosures - Lawmakers, advocates look to stem tide in the year ahead
Discuss - Fixes made in 2007 not enough to halt foreclosures - Lawmakers, advocates look to stem tide in the year ahead
Fixes made in 2007 not enough to halt foreclosures - Lawmakers, advocates look to stem tide in the year ahead
2008-01-01
Info/Broken? - Lowell Sun Editorial: Grow jobs first, save seat second
Discuss - Lowell Sun Editorial: Grow jobs first, save seat second
Lowell Sun Editorial: Grow jobs first, save seat second

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