bostonbubble.com

[RealEstateCafe]

Yesterday, Boston Globe ran a story on Peak Rents, today another indication that 2016 is turning point:

51 towns & Metro #Boston suburbs have begun 2016 on home price losing streak

http://bit.ly/MetroBosREDown

Anyone want to meet at Cambridge Common near Harvard Square or Joshua Tree in Davis Square to talk about the implications of these emerging trends, and whether it's possible or wise to "time the market."
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe

[Guest]

Good, let the shit burn down. The Boston housing market is detached from reality. There are only so many families that can afford a $750K shitbox that needs another $200K of work to make it reasonable. I hope the flippers get their asses handed to them.

[RealEstateCafe]

Know anyone who's suffering from buyer's remorse, wondering if they were manipulated into overpaying in the past two years? Will we see a "Bidding War Backlash" in the next 18 months and a repeat of regrets like those in 2008?

http://bit.ly/Misled2014

+ + +

Rather than taking legal action two years from now, what's the best way to be preemptive -- calm bidding wars during the next 100 days?

My hypothesis: By mid-August, the pre-election pause will cool currently overheated areas expanding the count of communities with falling housing prices.

What's your prediction?
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe

[Richthofen]

I have a friend who is trying to buy new construction in Ashland. Paying like $700K or so. The house is almost done, but they found that the concrete floor in the basement split and cracked, so half the floor is sloped now. Occupancy permit was still signed off on as it is cosmetic not structural.

My friend said, fix this dude. Contractors lawyer says, hey, we will gladly refund your deposit/down payment and sell into the hotter market this year. So Contractors are willing to burn existing offers with financing and cash already, expecting this year to be even more lunacy than last year.

[RealEstateCafe]

I'm not offering specific legal advice about your friends situation, but can say that the publisher of a leading real estate news site recently expressed concerns that there's "stupid money" in the market and asked readers if they are seeing evidence that 2016 will be a turning point.

You're not likely to hear that concern from Realtor news sources because they have a built in member / seller bias. Data cited in the Boston Globe article about falling prices comes from Banker & Tradesmen and includes MLS & non-MLS sales.
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe

[Richthofen]

I think the turning point was last year. Lots of little signs that things are changing:

New York and Miami are collecting real names behind LLCs buying property, slowing money laundering. China's financial situation has deteriorated, and the US dollar is much stronger than it was in 2012 compared to world currencies. The presidential election could be a total shitshow and increase geopolitical risk in the USA, halting foreign money and giving pause to domestic buyers.

LOTS of property above $1 million for sale. Right now if I were buying in Newton, Wellesley, or similar neighborhoods and had $1 million I could wring out concessions no problem. Oversupply of rental and luxury condos in South Boston, the Fenway, Cambridge.

Real Estate bubbles are a process, not an event. I think last year will be seen as the peak year, 2015 is exactly 10 years after 2005's peak. I bought my condo in Malden in 2006 (and later short sold) and I remember the market being similar, starting to see some cracks and deals. Now comes the discipline part, can I wait and avoid the falling knife?

[RealEstateCafe]

Good points, and yes, process and perceptions take time to change but single events can also be like flashing red or yellow traffic signals.

Predictions can help calm markets, too. For those who missed them in Curbed Boston, here's a replay of predictions for Fall 2015:

1. Condo Price-Chops Becoming the Norm

2. A Universal Truce in Bidding Wars

http://bit.ly/REFallTrending

+ + +

Those predictions were based on that assumption that "mortgage rates will creep steadily up from their historic lows." Instead, rates are actually LOWER right now that 2015 and "...very close to the lowest levels in 3 years. In fact, since mid-May 2013, we’ve only seen rates any lower than today 2-3 times, depending on the lender." Source: http://bit.ly/Near3yrLow

So what's happening in 51 towns in Metro Boston?

Despite what might happen in the next 100 days, one could argue that intergeneration cycles will have a more profound impact than real estate cycles. Are we already beginning to see what MIT's Aging Lab calls Disruptive Demographics?

http://bit.ly/SrSellOff

Here's what that might look like locally:

http://bit.ly/MassSellOff
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe

[Richthofen]

The senior sell off is largely a myth. Most seniors would rather eat dog food than sell their ranch in Winchester.

Millenials are a larger generation than the Boomers (makes sense since the birth rate for boomers was around 2.1 per woman during their prime fertility years, now for current women its 1.88 but that won't show up for another generation).
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/01/16/this-year-millennials-will-overtake-baby-boomers/
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-birthrate-hits-turning-point-1434513662

Now, its true the Millenials can't cash out the boomers at current prices due to their student loans. But what if anti-establishment candidates like Trump or Sanders forgives federally guaranteed student loans? Millenials want to buy. There's plenty of demand, just not at current prices.

I don't buy the 'bubble burst because boomers are cashing out'. Instead, I think what might cause the bubble to burst is that a large portion of housing (upwards of 25%) purchased in the last five years has been hot money from emerging economies. What happens when that money stops, or reverses? (what good is housing as a piggy bank if you can't 'raid' it, aka sell?)

[Guest]

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6-Iroquois-Rd-Arlington-MA-02476/56402508_zpid/

03/16/16 Listed $679,900. Sold $850,000, per my Redfin email today. All cash, no contingencies (mine was one of 17 bids on this place). I thought about bidding $750, but figured it wasn't worth it because there is pretty much no backyard at all (due to a monstrous, stupid addition). So I cut back my bid a little. The putz that bid this up to $850K probably left a lot of money on the table.

[RealEstateCafe]

Guest, I've been a long time critic of BLIND bidding wars and recently have gotten the attention of some elected officials who expressed a willingness to listen to a stories. Towards that end, I've drafted this text several weeks ago for use on a virtual town hall provider:

MOBILIZING RESPONSE TO BLIND BIDDING WARS

Would you and / or others on BostonBubble like to participate in an emergency town Hall meeting, online or off? Why, consider this blog post written two years ago:

http://bit.ly/BidReform

And this warning:

https://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe/status/717972225966649345

+ + +

DRAFT INTRO: Virtual Town Hall

From Canada to Cambridge, global investors are driving real estate speculation, sometimes bidding $100,000 or more over asking price. Beyond individual homes, investment funds are purchasing starter condos effectively removing rungs from the housing ladder (sometimes before units are ever offered for sale).

When homes are listed in the MLS, ordinary buyers are easily manipulated by a BLIND bidding process which plays on fear of loss; as a result, buyers overpay sometimes bidding against themselves or a phantom bidders.

The bottomline according to the New Yorker Magazine, is that owning a home becomes IMPOSSIBLE (emphasis added) for much of the city’s population.

Some communities are exploring or implementing policies to deter investors and calm housing markets but local victims feel powerless when they can't compete with cash investors. The goal of this town hall is three-fold:

1. Give bidding war VICTIMS a place to be heard,

2. Learn more about the impacts, positive & negative, of global investors; and

3. Invite housing advocates and policy makers from cities around the world to share best practices and ways to regulate BLIND bidding wars.

Our hope is to learn from communities around the world, and to identify and share best practices over time. During this Easter week, think of it as a Holy War on Bidding Wars. Want to join us?
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe

[RealEstateCafe]

Why has the Boston housing market "normalized" bidding wars? What role are #FakeBuyerAgents playing?

https://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe/status/860249418758586368

Look at image in link below to see the surprisingly low bidding war volume in April 2012:

http://bit.ly/BidWars412v17

If a #FakeBuyerAgent (aka #DesignatedAgent) has advised you to bid #100KoverAsk, please consider crowdfunding one of both of these campaigns at a micro-fraction of that cost:

Compare Bidding Wars: April 2012 vs April 2017
http://bit.ly/BidWars412v17

Use class w/ Nader to organize homebuyers #RECALL
http://bit.ly/CrwdFndNaderClass
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe