• For Greater Boston real estate prices from 1987 through the present and looking several years into the future, see the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Boston snapshot with futures (both before and after inflation). The futures markets are probably the most unbiased predictor of where housing prices are headed.
• For a gauge of how overpriced the market is, see the latest report on the Massachusetts price to income ratio.
• See the latest report on Massachusetts single family home prices for prices as typically reported by the local media but adjusted for inflation.
• The population of the Greater Boston Area was declining as the housing market posted its most exceptional gains during the bubble. One of the fallacious arguments which was used to contest the existence of a housing bubble was that a growing population was pushing up the natural price of property. While that argument is flawed in general, it is especially wrong when the population is declining. [Boston Globe] [Boston Bubble]
• The Wall Street Journal has identified Boston as one of the metropolitan areas in the US where it is cheaper to rent than to buy. Their data goes from 2001, when it was already cheaper to rent, to 2004 when the difference was even more pronounced. The Economist also published an article showing that renting is cheaper, and although it does not focus on Boston, it is very thorough about including various expenses and tax benefits that the Wall Street Journal left out. [Wall Street Journal] [The Economist]
• Consumer Reports has rated real estate in the Boston market as "Overpriced" and pegged it at 24% over the affordable price as of Q4 2004. [Consumer Reports]
• The number of homes sold in Massachusetts has been plummeting. For the third quarter of 2006 (the most recently reported quarter as of this writing), home sales have fallen 23% compared with the same quarter one year earlier. This despite the fact that home sales were already on the decline in 2005. [Worcester Telegram] [WCVB] [Milford Daily News]
• Foreclosures are rising sharply in Greater Boston and Massachusetts. There were more foreclosures in the first nine months of 2006 than in all of 2005, and as of this writing (in November 2006), Massachusetts is on track to break the all time record in 2006. [Boston Globe] [Lowell Sun]
• Boston and Massachusetts are the typical exceptions that people use to qualify their statements when they say that real estate prices don't fall. Boston and Massachusetts prices have fallen in the past, even in nominal terms (when adjusted for inflation, the fall is even more pronounced). Bear in mind that even if prices decline merely by the same percent that they have in the past, the leverage (a.k.a., margin or mortgage) used to purchase the homes must be taken into consideration - the substantially higher number of zero down and negative amortization loans will leave a lot of people with heavy losses and negative equity. [BusinessWeek] [Wall Street Journal (sub)]
• To compensate for property that fails to sell, real estate agents in Boston are falling back on the deceptive practice of canceling the listing in MLS and then creating a new listing so that the property appears as new to the market. There were 10,606 MLS cancellations in the first six months of 2005, up from 9,722 cancellations in the first six months of 2004 and 3,736 in 2001. "The number of canceled listings in Massachusetts has nearly tripled since 2001... In a recent spot check of houses for sale on MLS in Middlesex County, Barry Nystedt, president of the Massachusetts Association of Buyer Agents, said one in four listings canceled between May 25 and June 25 was recreated by the same firm with a new MLS number." [Boston Globe]

• Visit Patrick Killelea's housing crash blog. It is a fantastic resource providing ample quantitative background into the housing bubble.
• Visit the Wikipedia article on the United States housing bubble for another excellent overview of the bubble on a national scale.
• It is actually now cheaper to rent than to buy in many areas even after you factor in accumulated equity and tax savings. [The Economist]
• Yale professor Robert J. Shiller released the first edition of his prophetic book warning of a stock market bubble weeks before the stock market began its epic crash in 2000. He recently released an updated second edition in late February, 2005 with similar warnings of froth in the real estate market. This book is very highly recommended and is quite readable despite the complexity of the subject. [Irrational Exuberance] [Amazon.com]
• The current nationwide housing boom has been fueled in large part by historically low interest rates and an increase in the use of risky mortgages. Buyers may find that their monthly payments will skyrocket once the introductory period of their mortgage ends and the adjustable rate kicks in. In 2005, only $83 billion, or 1 percent, of mortgage debt will switch to an adjustable rate. In 2007, this number will leap to $1 trillion, or about 12 percent. [Herald Tribune]

Boston Bubble News & Interesting Links

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2008-05-10			In mortgage market, "walkaway" homeowners may be urban myth
2008-05-09			NorthPoint buyer quits deal - Other bidders eye 40-acre project site
2008-05-09			Professor Case: Real estate market ready for rebound
2008-05-08			The Back Bay Bubble - List Price vs. Past Sales
2008-05-08			The Economist: American housing - Map of misery
2008-05-08			Foreclosures soaring in some of Massachusetts' wealthiest towns
2008-05-08			Foreclosures hurt many renters, study says
2008-05-08			Bush threatens to veto Barney Frank's housing bailout bill
2008-05-08			NARcasting The Future: May 2008 - Yun predicts US prices to fall 2.4% in 2008
2008-05-07			Mass. foreclosure activity continues to surge - Up 38% YOY in 2008 Q1
2008-05-07			Map of recent Boston area buyers underwater by town
2008-05-07			David Lereah does an about face: "We're not at the bottom... This thing is going to get worse before it gets better." However, also repeats incorrect claims that nobody saw it coming.
2008-05-06			Zillow: Boston nominal housing prices down 16% from peak, at 2003 levels
2008-05-06			Doubts Raised on Big Backers of Mortgages, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
2008-05-06			Mass. upholds ruling to halt Fremont foreclosures
2008-05-06			Frank to lenders: Take losses or face stiffer regulation
2008-05-05			Gas prices up, housing prices down
2008-05-05			Nouvelle at Natick update: both sides suffering in symbiotic relationship between mall and condos
2008-05-02			Boston Bubble Brief, Mar 2008: Record YOY decline of 11.90% in MA SFH real median, lowest March on record
2008-05-02			The Arlington Artifice: March 2008 - Sales down dramatically
2008-05-02			Condo sales in Boston drop off - Prices are also down in a market formerly seen as bulletproof
2008-05-02			Middlesex North Registry of Deeds Recording Statistics April 2008 vs April 2007: deeds and mortgages both down 17%, foreclosures up 130%, orders of notice down 11%
2008-05-01			Post-bubble planning: suggestions for future direction of bostonbubble.com?
2008-05-01			Construction Slump Hits Home
2008-05-01			New MA law extends foreclosure notification period
2008-05-01			Trend of reporting that bad state-wide numbers don't apply locally runs contrary to actual data
2008-05-01			President-Elect of Worcester Regional Association of Realtors: "(Veteran investors) believe we are at the bottom and are investing"
2008-04-30			State far outpacing US economy, report says
2008-04-30			Increased Foreclosures Spark Arson Concerns
2008-04-30			REX Agreement claims to allow Massachusetts homeowners to convert home equity into cash now without debt, interest or monthly payments
2008-04-29			Case-Shiller: Boston down 4.6% in Feb 2008 from Feb 2007
2008-04-29			Housing prices keep falling as slump enters its third year - Sellers lowering expectations to close deals
2008-04-29			Foreclosures help spark worst drop in state since 1990
2008-04-29			Q1 foreclosures spike 260% in Massachusetts, 112% nationally
2008-04-28			Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: March 2008
2008-04-28			Mortgage crisis hits prime borrowers in NH
2008-04-28			MA home prices slide in March, sales plunge - Warren Group: nominal SFH prices down 10.6% YOY, sales down 32% - MAR: nominal SFH prices down 8.4% YOY, sales down 32.3%
2008-04-28			Owners trash, strip their foreclosed homes
2008-04-27			U.S. middle class taps nest eggs to keep homes
2008-04-25			MA March preview: SFH nominal median down 8.4% YOY, sales down 32.3% YOY, multi-family nominal median down 28.4% YOY
2008-04-25			Pain of Foreclosures Spreads to the Affluent
2008-04-25			Dorchester builder Trinity Financial cuts condo prices at Carruth
2008-04-25			Government Got What It Asked for in Housing Bust - Policies favoring ownership distort market
2008-04-24			Mass. home foreclosures jump 140% YOY in March
2008-04-24			New-Home Sales Fall to Low Last Seen in 1990s