bostonbubble.com Forum Index bostonbubble.com
Boston Bubble - Boston Real Estate Analysis
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

 
Go to: Boston real estate bubble fact list with references
More Boston Bubble News...
DISCLAIMER: The information provided on this website and in the associated forums comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY, expressed or implied. You assume all risk for your own use of the information provided as the accuracy of the information is in no way guaranteed. As always, cross check information that you would deem useful against multiple, reliable, independent resources. The opinions expressed belong to the individual authors and not necessarily to other parties.

Boston area inventory up 20% in the third quarter

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    bostonbubble.com Forum Index -> News & Reference Suggestions
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Renting in Mass



Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 381
Location: In a house I bought in December 2011

PostPosted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 12:25 pm GMT    Post subject: Boston area inventory up 20% in the third quarter Reply with quote

High inventory and a high month's supply point to downward pressure on prices.

Inventory in the Boston metro area is up 20% in the third quarter. That's the 7th largest increase in the country.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Renting in Mass



Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 381
Location: In a house I bought in December 2011

PostPosted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 12:39 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Excess inventories are the mortal enemies of of prices."

~ Gary Shilling 10/22/10
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Renting in Mass



Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 381
Location: In a house I bought in December 2011

PostPosted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 1:53 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm sure the September MAR numbers will get their own thread, but here's the deal.

Quote:

There were 2,952 detached single-family homes sold this September, a 13.8 percent decrease from the 3,426 homes sold the same time last year. On a month-to-month basis, home sales were down 10.4 percent from 3,293 homes sold this past August.

The median selling price for single-family homes in September was $295,000 an increase of 1.7 percent compared to $290,000 in September 2009. This is the 11th straight month of year-over-year gains. On a month-to-month basis, the September median selling price was down 10.6 percent from $330,000 in August 2010.

The inventory of single-family homes as of September 30, 2010 increased 13.0 percent from September 2009 (28,676 listings in 2009 to 32,475 listings in 2010) which translates into 9.9 months of supply in September 2010. This is up from 8.4 months of supply last year and up from 9.5 months in August 2010. This was the seventh straight month of inventory gains.


In summary, if you're a seller, it's time to capitulate. Things aren't going to look any better any time soon. That's probably the last positive year-to-year price change for a long time.

Has there ever been a double digit month-to-month price drop before?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
admin
Site Admin


Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1818
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 2:34 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Renting in Mass wrote:
That's probably the last positive year-to-year price change for a long time.


The Warren Group's median change is already negative, after adjusting for inflation.

Renting in Mass wrote:

Has there ever been a double digit month-to-month price drop before?


I'm not aware of any and nothing jumps out from eyeballing the chart. Of course, I'd credit the tax credit for this - I doubt the declines will continue to be so steep.

- admin
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Renting in Mass



Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 381
Location: In a house I bought in December 2011

PostPosted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 5:11 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I'd credit the tax credit for this


The tax credit definitely distorted the market, but why would it manifest itself as a huge price drop from August to September?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
admin
Site Admin


Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1818
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 5:23 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Renting in Mass wrote:

The tax credit definitely distorted the market, but why would it manifest itself as a huge price drop from August to September?


I didn't mean that the entirety or even majority of the drop was due to the tax credit, just that the drop was a little larger than normal due to the expiration of the credit. Last September, the (nominal) month-over-month drop was 7.9% and in 2008 it was 9.2%. The 10.6% drop this year is larger, but not massively so. I suspect it was a little larger than usual because of the hangover from the credit has started to hit.

- admin
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Renting in Mass



Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 381
Location: In a house I bought in December 2011

PostPosted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 5:39 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gotcha. Agreed.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    bostonbubble.com Forum Index -> News & Reference Suggestions All times are GMT
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You can post new topics in this forum
You can reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Forum posts are owned by the original posters.
Forum boards are Copyright 2005 - present, bostonbubble.com.
Privacy policy in effect.
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group