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Renting in Mass
Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 381
Location: In a house I bought in December 2011
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 Posted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 12:25 pm GMT Post subject: Boston area inventory up 20% in the third quarter |
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High inventory and a high month's supply point to downward pressure on prices.
Inventory in the Boston metro area is up 20% in the third quarter. That's the 7th largest increase in the country. |
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Renting in Mass
Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 381
Location: In a house I bought in December 2011
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| Posted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 12:39 pm GMT Post subject: |
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"Excess inventories are the mortal enemies of of prices."
~ Gary Shilling 10/22/10 |
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Renting in Mass
Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 381
Location: In a house I bought in December 2011
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| Posted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 1:53 pm GMT Post subject: |
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I'm sure the September MAR numbers will get their own thread, but here's the deal.
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There were 2,952 detached single-family homes sold this September, a 13.8 percent decrease from the 3,426 homes sold the same time last year. On a month-to-month basis, home sales were down 10.4 percent from 3,293 homes sold this past August.
The median selling price for single-family homes in September was $295,000 an increase of 1.7 percent compared to $290,000 in September 2009. This is the 11th straight month of year-over-year gains. On a month-to-month basis, the September median selling price was down 10.6 percent from $330,000 in August 2010.
The inventory of single-family homes as of September 30, 2010 increased 13.0 percent from September 2009 (28,676 listings in 2009 to 32,475 listings in 2010) which translates into 9.9 months of supply in September 2010. This is up from 8.4 months of supply last year and up from 9.5 months in August 2010. This was the seventh straight month of inventory gains.
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In summary, if you're a seller, it's time to capitulate. Things aren't going to look any better any time soon. That's probably the last positive year-to-year price change for a long time.
Has there ever been a double digit month-to-month price drop before? |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
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| Posted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 2:34 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Renting in Mass wrote: | That's probably the last positive year-to-year price change for a long time.
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The Warren Group's median change is already negative, after adjusting for inflation.
| Renting in Mass wrote: |
Has there ever been a double digit month-to-month price drop before? |
I'm not aware of any and nothing jumps out from eyeballing the chart. Of course, I'd credit the tax credit for this - I doubt the declines will continue to be so steep.
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Renting in Mass
Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 381
Location: In a house I bought in December 2011
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| Posted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 5:11 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | I'd credit the tax credit for this |
The tax credit definitely distorted the market, but why would it manifest itself as a huge price drop from August to September? |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
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| Posted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 5:23 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Renting in Mass wrote: |
The tax credit definitely distorted the market, but why would it manifest itself as a huge price drop from August to September? |
I didn't mean that the entirety or even majority of the drop was due to the tax credit, just that the drop was a little larger than normal due to the expiration of the credit. Last September, the (nominal) month-over-month drop was 7.9% and in 2008 it was 9.2%. The 10.6% drop this year is larger, but not massively so. I suspect it was a little larger than usual because of the hangover from the credit has started to hit.
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Renting in Mass
Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 381
Location: In a house I bought in December 2011
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| Posted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 5:39 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Gotcha. Agreed. |
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