bostonbubble.com

Renting in Mass · Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 1:07 pm GMT Post subject: New Data on Zillow

Zillow has some new data out. Lots of nice maps and charts, and you can download a spreadsheet for various metro areas (including Boston). If you zoom in on the map, you can see data for each town.

I'm not sure if this is a new feature, but I've never noticed it before.

http://www.zillow.com/reports/RealEstateMarketReports.htm

One highlight: 30% of the homes sold in the Boston area in the last quarter sold for a loss.

samz · Joined: 19 Feb 2008 Posts: 102 Location: Medford, MA

Nice. Cool graphs -- although I found the interface was a little buggy.

So, as much as I enjoy "The Arlington Artifice" monthly column in the Paper Economy blog, I couldn't help noticing that Arlington really does stand out in the data. I've heard all the arguments about low sales counts, but wouldn't those arguments apply everywhere? I don't get it. Prices in Arlington basically doubled over the last 6-8 years, and now they are down 1%.

Boston ITer · Guest

Arlington's a sort of sticky town in the sense that a lot of people don't want to leave once they settle down there. It's too close to the city (including Cambridge {Somerville} Davis/Porter/Harvard) along with that definition and at the same time, quiet and near Lexington-like but without the pomp and attitude. And believe it or not, it's a lot friendlier than most other suburbs esp Nouveau Riche glutches like Newton and Wellesley. It's almost like living in western Mass or Vermont, from a particular p.o.v. but with an urban locus. So Arlington will probably be the lagging factor in the regional housing decline but don't worry, it'll also go down as no area is immune.

admin · Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:36 pm GMT Post subject:

john p · Joined: 10 Mar 2006 Posts: 1820

As far as what Zillow does capture is the price point and profile segment of people and that are buying.

I mean if a $350k price point is moving within a given town it will be clear that the prices are relatively competitive relative to the number of buyers targetting those properties.

I would like to know how this might transfer to the Case Shiller "matched pairs" index that aims at comparing quality apples to apples as opposed to just a price point. What I mean by this is, big deal if certain price points are moving, they reflect the general affordability reach of the region. What is important is what you get for the money, a condo or a house, etc. Boston hasn't crashed like some cities, but in some of those other cities your money went much further to begin with. If people are still willing to pay $350k for one floor in a triple decker here and you can get a nice 3 bedroom with a pool in Florida, who cares if Florida houses have dropped, you still get more for your money (if you're retiring and income isn't an issue).

Basically, I look at Zillow for the price trends for a town, and then actually look at the assessed values for each property. Town Assessors categorize properties and set assessments at what they feel reflects a Fair Market Value. Obviously, their assessments are based on a certain time period, and some towns have assessments that are based on prior year's sales. What you do get is an understanding of the price structure, so if one rung in the price ladder has a price elevation height of say $350k and it was assessed at $385k back in 2005, it gives you an idea of what a $450k assessed house in 2005 might be going for. (I don't know, say $418). Also, if you see that very, very few sales are in a certain price point, a house may go at a real value because simply, not many people look at certain towns for certain price points.

Do you think Zillow's algorithms capture quality or scope of property relative to price?

admin · Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:27 pm GMT Post subject:

Renting in Mass · Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:45 pm GMT Post subject:

JCK · Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Posts: 559

Renting in Mass · Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 3:32 pm GMT Post subject:

Yeah, it's possible that it's sticky, but it seems fishy that they can't figure out that if 3 townhouses in the same unit sell for $300K, the value of the other townhouses isn't $350K (especially 6 months later in a down market).

It doesn't really matter if their algorithm stinks or there's some bias creeping in; either way, the end result isn't very useful.

Guest · Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 9:44 pm GMT Post subject:

"At least in the closer-in towns like Cambridge, Somerville, and in Boston proper, you can have million dollar homes less than a quarter mile from absolute dumps."

I agree, except that they are sometimes RIGHT NEXT DOOR! javascript:emoticon(' Surprised

')

Not kidding here. I have seen million dollar places with a triple-decker that sways in the wind right next door with paint peeling off in strips so large you would not believe they would not break off.

steverino · Guest

In Cambridge and Somerville, you can have million dollar properties that are absolute dumps.

And sadly for the Globe, it looks like the market has popped Arlington's cherry. Median prices in the now-deflowered city dropped about 10% in the past year, and single families are down from 550 at the peak to 430 today.

But, I'm sure the Globe will still run an article about rising prices among odd-numbered Arlington houses on streets beginning with the letter "F."

JCK · Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Posts: 559

You guys are too funny. And, of course, you're right.

admin · Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:13 pm GMT Post subject:

steverino · Guest

Let's ask realtor Lisa Drapkin why she still can't sell that condo on Meacham Street two years later.

Nobody in their right mind ever listed Cambridge and Somerville among the "immune" towns, not even Binyamin Applebaum. Sales and prices have plunged in both towns by as much as 30%, depending what you're measuring.