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kenfeyl
Joined: 21 Apr 2006
Posts: 11
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 Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 3:20 pm GMT Post subject: August 2006 MAR Data |
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Anyone read this article yet? The data's not online yet, but the numbers are in this story. http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20060925005406&newsLang=en
There's a problem, however:
| Quote: | | The median sale price fell 8.0 percent to $331,000 from $360,000 in August 2005. |
| Quote: | | Meanwhile, Nantucket's median single-family sale price rose by the state's biggest figure - 8.5 percent - and Worcester's 5.6 percent median sale price decline was the state's steepest. |
So there was an overall decline of 8.0% yet Worcester's 5.6% decline was the state's steepest? Impossible!
The good news is that I didn't buy. The Realtors were trying to sweet talk me into ignoring obvious problems with the units I was considering, so I pulled out completely. |
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westsidebubble
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| Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 3:26 pm GMT Post subject: Re: August 2006 MAR Data |
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Not impossible- the numbers reported are median, not average. Nantucket is a very small percentage of the # of sales across the state.
It's possible that this could skew the average upwards, however, since the $ amount for Natucket sales is much higher than everywhere else. I doubt it. |
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kenfeyl
Joined: 21 Apr 2006
Posts: 11
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| Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 3:41 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Is that really possible? If the median dropped 8% overall, then there necessarily has to be at least one neighborhood that dropped at least 8%. |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
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| Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 3:49 pm GMT Post subject: |
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That's actually data from The Warren Group, not the Massachusetts Association of Realtors. The MAR is also set to release their August data today at http://www.marealtor.com/content/monthly_reports.htm , although I don't see it there just yet. Last month there was a pronounced discrepancy between the data for the two groups - I guess we will know shortly if they diverge again. I would consider The Warren Group's data to be more thorough given that the MAR only includes sales from the MLS.
Yes it's possible for the statewide median to decrease more than the median for any given city. As an example, let's say that in the previous time period there were 100 sales in city A at a median price of $200K and 100 sales in city B at a median price of $300K. If in the current time period there are again 100 sales in city A at a median price of $200K but only 1 sale in city B at a median price of $300K, the median price for the two cities combined will have gone down (probably to around $200K) even though the median for the individual cities is unchanged. In other words, a drop in the median can be effected by a disproportionate decrease in the number of sales from the more expensive regions. |
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westsidebubble
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| Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 4:15 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| kenfeyl wrote: | | Is that really possible? If the median dropped 8% overall, then there necessarily has to be at least one neighborhood that dropped at least 8%. |
I assume you know what median means. In case you don't, it means that 50% of the data points (house prices) were below x and 50% were above.
The average sale price on Nantucket is most likely way above 50% of sale prices across the state. In fact, it is probably in the 90% range. Therefore, changes in price on Nantucket have no impact on where the median is. They could go up 100% and not change the median.
They do, however effect the average, since all prices get added together and divided by the number of sales.
Median can be deceiving, especially in a tough market, since more desirable properties generally don't go down that much, but mid range and undesirable properties do (in my experience). Would be nice to see what the 75% percentile does YoY.
Of course average is deceiving also, since a number of high priced property sales can bring up an average. That's why they use median. |
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codfish
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| Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 6:25 pm GMT Post subject: |
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The difference is more simply due to different reporting periods.
The median price decline of 8.0% for the whole state is based on year-to-year, or August 2005 to August 2006 numbers.
The 5.6% decline in Worcester is based on year-to-date, or January 2006 to August 2006 numbers.
From the press release:
| Quote: | | For the year-to-date period, Hampshire was the only Massachusetts county not to see single-family home sales decline. Hampshire sales stayed steady at 1,013. Nantucket's fell the hardest, by 22.1 percent. Meanwhile, Nantucket's median single-family sale price rose by the state's biggest figure - 8.5 percent - and Worcester's 5.6 percent median sale price decline was the state's steepest. |
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