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Hard Rain · Guest

http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/04/boston_real_estate_not_clinically_depressed_just_a_split_personality.html

One problem with the Redfin hypothesis, it's wrong. What's selling is new construction not old, it also is LESS expensive per square foot. What they failed to factor in to their equation is knockdowns.

Prime example:

74 Fairmont Avenue, Newton MA.

Sold for 2.9 million in March, the only million plus sale for the entire month ( there are now 93 listings over 1 million , but that is a tale for another day).

Trulia, Zillow and the City of Newton assessors list the house as having seven bedrooms, 3.5 baths, 3,424 sq ft with a build date of 1912. Problem is , the house when sold in march was 7,607 sq feet , 6 bedrooms and seven baths. This is the description taken from the listing ;

"Gracious new home with open layout and beautifully proportioned rooms. Abundant details include substantial moldings, wainscoting and built-ins. The glorious chef's kitchen has a full array of state-of-the-art appliances. Lavish master suite with dressing..."

So when Refin calculated the price per sq foot they more than doubled the actual cost and added 96 years to it's age. This is not an isolated example, three other higher priced sales in Newton during the month of march were all new construction of old properties;

66 Forest Ave : 825,000
75 Manet rd: 845,000
34 Beecher rd: 947,5000

Turns out what is happening is the exact opposite of what redfin claims, brand new lower priced properties offered by developers ( they get it) sell while over priced used homes offered by delusional sellers sit and sit....

admin · Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:10 pm GMT Post subject:

Thanks for pointing that out.

The Globe blog entry on this also has some comments attached about other ways in which Redfin's conclusion may be off:

http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/blogs/renow/2008/04/what_sells_big.html

- admin

jayman · Guest

Newton has 73 listings over $1M, and four $1M plus sales already in April.

168 in the last 12 months

john p · Joined: 10 Mar 2006 Posts: 1820

Hey, it looks like some of the boys are posting on the Globe's blog that you mentioned.

Sold at the Top, Hard Rain.

I love the "Fawn Liebowitz" name....

It looks like a "Marcus" dude took a swipe on a realtor for saying that there were bidding wars on new properties and the Globe guy asks "Marcus" to "play nice.." The Globe has always been too flowery. On the one hand, they make this pit bull of a guy who fights predatory lenders their "Man of the Year", and then even after the Federal and State Goverment have come to terms that there has been predatory lending and fraud in the Real Estate Industry, the Globe guy expects people to "play nice".

The guy who say's new condo developments are getting bidding wars is a realtor who brokers new condo developments:

http://boston.condodomain.com/

http://ezinearticles.com/?Boston-Condo-Market-In-Real-Estate-Frenzy&id=462994

It seems the guy predicted a buying frenzy of condos in Boston for 2007.

I thought the guy was harsh with the realtor, so that is outside the strike zone, but questioning the judgment is appropriate to me. Maybe this guy is in a bubble of high end buyers and has a totally different perspective; it is just that it seems that his prior comments are not specific enough, but this go-around, he qualified that "Yuck" condos are suffering.

admin · Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 8:41 pm GMT Post subject: Re: need accurate facts

john p · Joined: 10 Mar 2006 Posts: 1820

http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/articles/2008/04/23/downtown_condos_to_be_auctioned/

admin · Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:00 pm GMT Post subject:

john p · Joined: 10 Mar 2006 Posts: 1820

Right, but think about it like a consultant. Some consultants talk down to their clients and exude confidence. The confidence attracts weak individuals who want to be told what to do. It is a veiled predatory practice technique that is, again, meant to filter out smart people and target the weak. It is kind of like the used car salesmen who first approaches you like you're an idiot because if he detects you are, he'll hose you. The truth is that there are suckers out there, and salesmen are doing their best to use their Jedi mind trick to tractor beam them in. Again, the dumber they are, the more profit predators get. Imagine a building full of people like this. I'd imagine that building would be a magnet for vacuum cleaner salesmen and the like... People who think for themselves and are critical might be considered high maintenance for the dominatrix types. A strong buyer's agent, you'd want to leverage the buyer’s market advantage. I am not sure how he attracts buyers with this approach. I also imagine that in order to get the deals with the big developers you'd have to give the impression that you've drunk the Kool Aid and that you have lofty ideas about the prospects of buyers running with offers over asking. The whole audacity approach seemed to work in the bubble years, but long term credibility is a concern with some realtors and they have dialed back the propaganda. I mean if what he was saying was true, why are they auctioning off condos in pretty decent areas?

http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/articles/2008/04/23/downtown_condos_to_be_auctioned/

For the Globe guy to be defending him is a little sketchy.

admin · Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:47 pm GMT Post subject:

jayman · Guest

Admin-

His March number was wrong also- 3 SFH, and my April number is through 4/15. 36 $1M+ homes in the last six months. Not saying it's not much slower that last year, just not dead.

I have been on the bubble story since 2004, and all the gloom and doom predictions have not come about. People just don't understand how these markets work.

If you look to the last NE/Boston drop 15+ years ago, the biggest drop in any one year was 7%, and while condos in Dracut may have dropped 50% in that period, the total drop in Weston was only 15%. I thought the economy around here was much worse then.

The $1M+ home situation is an interesting point however. I think right now Andover has a five year supply on the market. Not sure what happens in that situation. The Globe had a story on this.

admin · Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 1:58 pm GMT Post subject: Re: corrections

samz · Joined: 19 Feb 2008 Posts: 102 Location: Medford, MA

Hard Rain · Guest

Jayman,

Please list the addresses of the other two March Sales. What else do you claim I got wrong? "His March number was wrong also- 3 SFH"

FYI, there have been 7 million plus properties added to the Newton inventory in the past week. Four sales for the month and seven new listings in a week, you do the math...

samz · Joined: 19 Feb 2008 Posts: 102 Location: Medford, MA

jayman · Guest

go to newenglandmoves.com. it draws from MLS. you have to register.

go to any town you want.

run the report for "recent sales"

it will give you all the info you want. newton 3/08 >> 15 harwich road, 74 fairmont avenue and 315 otis street if you're too lazy to do that

i'm not disputing that there are issues out there, but the point is that the nicer towns continue to sell okay and prices are probably back to 2003 (in my town andover at least), but it had it's biggest runup (%) in 1998-99 and is still very high.

the forclosure numbers of course are soaring on a percentage basis- they were at incredible lows. andover currently has only a couple foreclosure and a few more short sales, all on very marginal property and some involving flip renovations. big deal.

the crappy areas of boston metro are going to get killed. prices ran up (for a variety of reasons, some illegal) to levels far above demand and people who couldn't afford homes bought. many other areas will stagnate for a while with prices on a flat/down trend.