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news
Joined: 14 Jul 2007
Posts: 0
Location: Greater Boston
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JCK
Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 559
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 Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 2:52 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Wouldn't surprise me that much; I'd imagine most (all?) of the buyers in Lincoln and Weston are not first time buyers, and would likely be competing with other buyers having significant equity, plus significant income.
If you bought a $200k house in 1990, and it's worth $600k today, and you've got less than $100k left on your mortgage, and you make $200-$300k/yr, it wouldn't be that much of a stretch for such a person to "trade up" to a $1m home...
In general, though, I think town-by-town analysis is suspect. Why is Belmont down, but Newton up? I can't imagine the buyer profile between the two towns is all that different.
Cambridge down 20% is a bit shocking to me, although I wonder how many SFHs actually trade hands in Cambridge (condos are most of the market...). |
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waiting
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| Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 8:32 pm GMT Post subject: bs |
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| I call complete bs. Notice that he cites "average." The average is not a reliable statistic because a few very high or low priced sales can move the figure wildly. Median prices can be misleading because if only very high priced properties are selling then the median will actually rise even if there is a large amount of inventory across lower priced segments of the market. If a bunch of properties in a town list for $5 mil. but sell for $4 mil. this is a 20% price drop, but if mostly $1 mil. non-comparable properties sold last year in the same town then YOY prices will surely appear to be rising. This is RE econ. 101. Fundamentals point to a worsening market, even at the highest end. |
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JCK
Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 559
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| Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 9:06 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Excellent points. Given the small numbers of sales, I'd really want to see the distribution over price.
But that would require actual analysis, something most reporters either cannot (due to time constraints) or will not do. |
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waiting
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| Posted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:11 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| The latter. It's quick and easy to calculate a range, and to make a graph, in excel. |
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waiting
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| Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 4:55 pm GMT Post subject: herald also censoring "comments" |
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| BTW, I have tried twice to post my original comment above on the Herald's "comments" thread for the article, but they appear to be blocking it. Hmmmm... |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
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| Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 5:24 pm GMT Post subject: Re: herald also censoring "comments" |
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| waiting wrote: | | BTW, I have tried twice to post my original comment above on the Herald's "comments" thread for the article, but they appear to be blocking it. Hmmmm... |
Maybe they are automatically flagging "bs"? Give it a try without that, just in case it might be hitting a filter.
- admin |
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waiting
Guest
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| Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 7:20 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| I actually used objective language, trying not to offend. IMO no filter, just cherry-picking posts. |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
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| Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 2:54 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| waiting wrote: | | I actually used objective language, trying not to offend. IMO no filter, just cherry-picking posts. |
That's certainly a possibility. However, their site also appears to have some technical problems. I just tried posting a comment on a different story and I had to reload the page about half a dozen times to get their captcha (anti-spam verification image) to show up. When I finally got an image, I typed and submitted my post only to be told that the verification code was wrong. I hit my browser's back button and triple checked the image, and I had entered it correctly. I tried again and finally submitted the message without getting an error, but there wasn't any indication of success either, so I'm pretty skeptical about the reliability of their comments system. This isn't to say that they couldn't be cherry-picking posts as well.
- admin |
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