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RealEstateCafe
Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 235
Location: Cambridge, MA
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 Posted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:11 pm GMT Post subject: DISCUSS: What can today's buyers & sellers learn from 9/ |
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FLASHBACK: The Fed dropped Interest rates 14 times after 9/11 to stimulate the economy & housing market, and by 2005 it was clear that housing was grossly overvalued and the subsequent real estate recession nearly took down the economy.
By 4Q2018, it was again becoming clear that the latest housing market cycle had reached a #RETippingPoint. Since then, the Fed has reduced rates 4 times -- including today's cut, the sharpest drop since 2008 -- despite a strong economy.
What are the implications for consumers? If you're a homeowner, is this a welcomed extension, giving you another chance to sell at the top of a market? If you're a homebuyer, do you worry about buying into an artificially inflated housing market that may cause you to be upside down on your mortgage by 2025?
Please read before responding:
http://bit.ly/SrSellOff
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe |
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optimus
Joined: 23 May 2008
Posts: 39
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| Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:32 am GMT Post subject: |
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| The Federal Reserve will do whatever it takes to prop up the housing market even if it means buying up every single mortgage security. They will not let prices fall because the housing market drives the rest of the economy. |
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RealEstateCafe
Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 235
Location: Cambridge, MA
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| Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:31 am GMT Post subject: |
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Optimus, Worth fact checking you confidence against the reality of boom bust cycles, first in this tweet and then quote below. Note prediction of recession post election 20 years ago and compare to today plunge on the stock market because of recession fears:
https://twitter.com/realestatecafe/status/1066768001159045122?s=21
+. +. +
In an article published on August 13, 2001 entitled “Feds Report: Housing Starting to Weaken“, nationally-syndicated columnist Lew Sichelman cautioned that:
Deputy Comptroller of the Currency Nancy Wentzler reminded reporters recently that housing values dropped 8 percent on average during the last recession in 1991. Not only could it happen again, she said, it could “happen rather abruptly.”
In the first federal reserve district, the Boston bank reported that while the overall housing market is still strong, “signs of softening are emerging.”
Housing prices, as the Boston Foundation wrote, had risen to a median sales price of nearly $300,000 in Greater Boston, a jump of more than 50 percent over three years. That defied predictions made in November 1999 by James Smith, former Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, that a recession would occur after the Presidential election of 2000, followed by a two to three year downturn in the housing market.
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe |
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Guest
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| Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:14 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Technically a recession is 2 negative GDP quarters. A recession wouldn't be declared for months. But I wonder what the covid-19 crisis will do to the spring RE market (the active season). Owners aren't going to allow open houses, and aren't even want to have private showings. |
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RealEstateCafe
Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 235
Location: Cambridge, MA
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Guest
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| Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:06 am GMT Post subject: |
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| My point is that inventory might be very low for my reasons stated. Or sellers might go to people like Anthony Lamacchia (we've all seen his ads), so they won't have to list. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:59 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Anonymous wrote: | | My point is that inventory might be very low for my reasons stated. Or sellers might go to people like Anthony Lamacchia (we've all seen his ads), so they won't have to list. |
Inventory may not be low when people start to die and their houses go on the market. The majority of people over 60 are homeowners. I personally would not buy this year and would wait for natural selection to produce more inventory. You might get some really good deals in really good neighborhoods. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:28 am GMT Post subject: |
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| The season is getting under way right about now I would think. Is there a realtor out there that can compare the current inventory with that of last year at the same time? |
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RealEstateCafe
Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 235
Location: Cambridge, MA
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| Posted: Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:07 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Anonymous wrote: | | My point is that inventory might be very low for my reasons stated. Or sellers might go to people like Anthony Lamacchia (we've all seen his ads), so they won't have to list. |
@Guest, are you referring to selling properties Pre-MLS or Off-MLS? If so, you may be aware that hidden listings go by various names -- pocket listings, exclusive listings, private inventory, coming soon. Regardless of how listing agents spin the practice, they are risking a class-action lawsuit for gaming the housing market. With all of the uncertainty in the housing market right, would any buyers want to help call out #GamesREAgentsPlay and work with @MassAGO to create an EMERGENCY Real Estate Transparency Act?
If you visit the tweet below, you'll see that I complete a sentence that Lew Sichelman, a nationally-syndicated real estate reporter with five decades of experience, starts explaining the impact "off-market as a strategy":
| Quote: | | “off-MLS listings not only skew market data & reduce buyer/seller choice,” |
..."they extract already low inventory, driving #BiddingWars & prices higher while brokers enjoy double pay days"
https://bit.ly/CovidRE_ExposeLISTINGS
What's your take?
+ + +
Other @Guest, do you think the pandemic will expedite or delay the Great Senior Sell-Off? It's been predicted since 2013, some would argue earlier:
http://bit.ly/SrSellOff[/quote]
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe |
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Guest
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| Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:54 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| RealEstateCafe wrote: |
Other @Guest, do you think the pandemic will expedite or delay the Great Senior Sell-Off? It's been predicted since 2013, some would argue earlier:
http://bit.ly/SrSellOff |
The vast majority of people who are dying from the coronavirus so far are minorities in the poor neighborhoods and seniors in nursing homes. I'm not sure if their deaths will result in massive sell-off. It's possbile the pandemic will cause people to migrate away from the densely packed inner cities and back to the suburbs. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:30 am GMT Post subject: |
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| RealEstateCafe wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | My point is that inventory might be very low for my reasons stated. Or sellers might go to people like Anthony Lamacchia (we've all seen his ads), so they won't have to list. |
@Guest, are you referring to selling properties Pre-MLS or Off-MLS? If so, you may be aware that hidden listings go by various names -- pocket listings, exclusive listings, private inventory, coming soon. Regardless of how listing agents spin the practice, they are risking a class-action lawsuit for gaming the housing market. With all of the uncertainty in the housing market right, would any buyers want to help call out #GamesREAgentsPlay and work with @MassAGO to create an EMERGENCY Real Estate Transparency Act?
If you visit the tweet below, you'll see that I complete a sentence that Lew Sichelman, a nationally-syndicated real estate reporter with five decades of experience, starts explaining the impact "off-market as a strategy":
| Quote: | | “off-MLS listings not only skew market data & reduce buyer/seller choice,” |
..."they extract already low inventory, driving #BiddingWars & prices higher while brokers enjoy double pay days"
https://bit.ly/CovidRE_ExposeLISTINGS
What's your take?
+ + +
Other @Guest, do you think the pandemic will expedite or delay the Great Senior Sell-Off? It's been predicted since 2013, some would argue earlier:
http://bit.ly/SrSellOff |
[/quote]
I'm not sure I get how it's "gaming the housing market" to sell your house in good faith to an investor. Especially in the time of a pandemic where you can reasonably not want strangers entering you house. |
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