bostonbubble.com

[admin]

Hmmmm... good point. The graph should probably be for the ratio of price to income of the buyers. As you point out, owners who aren't recent buyers will most likely have bought in more affordable times and may not need dual incomes to support their purchase. Their lower incomes could push down the median, which could exaggerate the irregularity of the price to income ratio. I'll create a new graph if anybody can recommend a more granular data source for income.

I think the price to rent ratio would be helpful here too. All of the population and income inputs that you mentioned should push up rents in the same way as prices. I would strongly suspect that ratio to be irregular as well, because I think that loose credit and psychology were the primary causes of the bubble, but possibly less extreme since it wouldn't be as distorted by demographics.

- admin

[john p]

I just offer these thoughts because my generation seemed to go through this backslide of buying power all the way through.

For example, kids used to be able to pay for their own college or at least a much larger portion. Kids right out of college used to be able to pay for their own rent, it was my generation where you had to live at home for a year or two and save. Hell, kids before me were renting right out of high school. In fact, some kids were "running away" from home because they could economically survive hitchhiking and having all the resources they needed by finding a job pumping gas. I remember seeing 17 year old pizza delivery guys buying new IROC Z-28's. I was told by a contractor that times were so good that he had trouble getting guys to show up on Friday's because they made all they needed by Thursday and they would head up to Montreal to the strip clubs for a party weekend. I was also part of the generation that saw that you needed two incomes to get a place.

All along, you were made to feel like a loser because prior generations paid for their own college, rented right out of school, bought houses in their mid 20's with one income etc. etc.

[john p]

Holy smokes, I was right.

http://www.tbf.org/indicators/shared/printable.asp?id=1201&title=0

[john p]

Sorry for the rant.... It just bothers me when someone does research and detects something (isolates an obvious condition) and then fail to dig a little deeper. It's like wouldn't your curiosity start to grow if you found something that stood out. I would think the momentum would build and to see these obvious loose ends not tied up is baffling.

Here is an interesting ad going in newspapers.... Check out the stats. I missed that Q3 went up 10% compared to last year....

http://www.gbreb.com/gbar/documents/NARFALL07.pdf

[john p]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:United_States_Income_Distribution_1967-2003.svg

So here is a nice chart showing the widening gap between rich and poor

Here is another one showing the breakdown of family types.

http://www.censusscope.org/us/chart_house.html

What we're seeing are more independent women. More indpendent women means more "households" and if people aren't paired up or living together, you increase the demand on housing.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/03/06/earlyshow/living/money/main1374747.shtml

Guy's I'm sorry, we've got more to worry about than just the real estate bubble here. My fear is coming true, women might not need us anymore and our days here could be numbered. We've got to pull together on this one. I have never been able to prevail with a woman one on one so again, we need to band together, circle the wagons...

[john p]

http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/markettrends/20041124-lisle.html

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/12/17/REGBFMVTEE1.DTL

http://www.seattlewomanmagazine.com/april05-3.htm

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/7172006_Woman_Home_Buyers.asp

http://www.isucceed.com/Single-Women-Take-No-2-Spot-in-Home-Market/real-estate-news/56154/

http://www.cook-county-real-estate.net/blog/26-of-home-buyers-in-illinois-are-single-women.html

[admin]

[admin]

john p,

Here's a book which sounds like it probably supports your hypothesis:

The Two-Income Trap: Why Middle-Class Mothers and Fathers Are Going Broke

- admin

[former Owner]

I've been noticing the target of single women by the Real Estate industry for the last 2-3 years.

I think the Real Estate Industry understands the psychology that makes women and men very different.

1. Single guy is less likely to want or feel the need to buy a home - they know not to waste money targeting Single Men.

2. Women are more interested (in general) in living in a home that is comfortable and attractive - in general- Men are less interested in this. My Wife keeps our home looking great and is the person to initiate improvements in the decor. It seems that single women seem to feel the need to settle down in a home (In my experience single men don't experience this need as often).

3. Women are more likely not to be interested in having their Money in the best investment and are often less likely to follow twist-turns of the economy. The Wealthy Single guy with money may be more interested in having his money invested Financial Investments and to drive a great car.

I know all my comments sound very Sexist and I apologize for that - but, I've spent the last few years as the Stay-At-Home parent. The differences between Men and Women and their views towards money and Real Estate/Homes are very apparent if you pay attention to details of our society.

In a Market down turn the tendency for women to be optimistic (I think women tend to be more optimistic than men - in general) means they won't worry about a Market downturn reducing the value of their Real Estate Investment and they will buy.

[john p]

I thought I was sexist as well, but there was an awful lot of chatter out there about it. I think it is safe to say that you'd find more women than men that value a nicer setting more.

I remember when my mother came to visit my apartment and she saw that I didn't have any furniture to put my clothes in. I used green trash bags by my bed. My mother asked why did I go out and buy a new sportscar while at the same time put my clothes in green trash bags.

The other thing is that I think you'll find that women mature in certain ways faster; a maturity that aligns with the corporate world. Even in fashion, you can tell a male intern (white socks, wrinkled clothes, Doc Martens, toilet paper on his shoe), but women can pull off a much more sophisticated look. Of course, these are generalizations, but I wouldnt' be surprised if in 5-10 years you'd see women up to 30 earning more than men. I didn't come close to maturity until about early 30's. I think that part of the reason why more women are buying is like you said, they value the environment more and they are earning more than before. I caught a glimpse of what a "Wedding Shower" is all about. They do this thing with a little umbrella, the food is very good and the environment is very nice and they get all dolled up. My little brother arranged my bachelor party and it was quite the opposite experience, but I wouldn't have traded it in any way. I also think they miss out on the juvenille bliss. I think when guys find that healthy balance and their gears start to connect, they get a bit more traction in the workplace... I'll let you know when it happens for me.

[Guest]

[admin]