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GBAR: Boston home values have ‘likely peaked’

 
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Agree, prices likely peaked
This is Boston, prices never go down
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 198
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:42 pm GMT    Post subject: GBAR: Boston home values have ‘likely peaked’ Reply with quote

Summary of BostonAgentMagazine story entitled, GBAR: Boston home values have ‘likely peaked.' Comments welcome below, on Twitter or over beer / coffee:

1. Median sales price of SF homes = record-high $605K in Sept but 1.7% rise YOY marks 5th month in 2019 w/ less 2 % increase YOY;

2. SF Sales off 32.4% from Aug

3. Condo median dropped 3rd consecutive month, off 4.1% record year ago to $549K

Invite homebuyers to crowdsource insights and share price reductions, seller concessions on Twitter using the hashtag #RETippingPoint.

http://bit.ly/BosRE_LikelyPEAK

If you'd like to correspon privately about timing the market, DM to be added to our peer-to-peer collaboration site on Basecamp.com.
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:07 am GMT    Post subject: Re: GBAR: Boston home values have ‘likely peaked’ Reply with quote

RealEstateCafe wrote:
Summary of BostonAgentMagazine story entitled, GBAR: Boston home values have ‘likely peaked.' Comments welcome below, on Twitter or over beer / coffee:

1. Median sales price of SF homes = record-high $605K in Sept but 1.7% rise YOY marks 5th month in 2019 w/ less 2 % increase YOY;

2. SF Sales off 32.4% from Aug

3. Condo median dropped 3rd consecutive month, off 4.1% record year ago to $549K

Invite homebuyers to crowdsource insights and share price reductions, seller concessions on Twitter using the hashtag #RETippingPoint.

http://bit.ly/BosRE_LikelyPEAK

If you'd like to correspon privately about timing the market, DM to be added to our peer-to-peer collaboration site on Basecamp.com.


Home prices always peak from April to June and take a dive in the winter months, but spring of 2020 looks to be another year of price increases because rents are still going up. We really need a recession or rent control to truly tank the housing market.

https://boston.curbed.com/2019/10/31/20942220/boston-apartment-rents-november-2019
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 198
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:35 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for your comment and link from Curbed Boston. Can we invite readers to address your assertions, not to be adversarial, but to inform homebuying and selling decisoins?

ASSERTION #1. Prices are seasonal, don't mistake the margin movements this Fall with softening overall.

REBUTTAL #1: Agree prices are seasonal and changes month to month are easily documented by graphs. However, the median prices cited by GBAR are Year over Year and inspired this quote:

"These conditions have the realtors association suggesting the once unthinkable: That the Boston-area housing market—so long the domain of ceaseless escalating prices, vicious bidding wars, and often paltry inventory—might be turning in favor of buyers.

'The sellers’ market is likely over, or at least the balance has shifted,' Jim Major, president of the Greater Boston Association of Realtors."

http://bit.ly/CurbCoolBosRE

ASSERTION #2. Rents are still going up so sales prices will likely increase in Spring 2020.

REBUTTAL #2: Rising rents do not increase purchasing power, they deplete it.
Further, the Curbed Boston article you shared ends by suggesting rents may begin to fall in 2020. "Perhaps now that the Boston area’s for-sale market is cooling a bit more tenants will jump into that and free up space in the rental market, thereby bringing rents down."

ASSERTION #3. We really need a recession or rent control to truly tank the housing market.

REBUTTAL #3: The lowest interest rates in three years juiced purchasing power and prices earlier this year, but there's only so much demand you can pull forward. Further, demography is destiny, so watch for more signs the housing market has reached a #RETippingPoint in 2020 as we enter the first phase of the Great Senior Sell-Off:

http://bit.ly/SrSellOff

+ + +

Glad to continue a friendly debate offline over coffee or beer nearly any evening. Working on a series of topics for #REonTap. What would others, particularly potential homebuyers or sellers who fear they may have missed the top of the market -- #PeakRE, like to discuss in a friendly, civil way? Hope the content and tone of what's written above attracts thoughtful responses, here, on Twitter or inside the RealEstateCafe's private discussion room:

http://bit.ly/PeakAt_PeakBosRE
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:26 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

RealEstateCafe wrote:
Thanks for your comment and link from Curbed Boston. Can we invite readers to address your assertions, not to be adversarial, but to inform homebuying and selling decisoins?

ASSERTION #1. Prices are seasonal, don't mistake the margin movements this Fall with softening overall.

REBUTTAL #1: Agree prices are seasonal and changes month to month are easily documented by graphs. However, the median prices cited by GBAR are Year over Year and inspired this quote:

"These conditions have the realtors association suggesting the once unthinkable: That the Boston-area housing market—so long the domain of ceaseless escalating prices, vicious bidding wars, and often paltry inventory—might be turning in favor of buyers.

'The sellers’ market is likely over, or at least the balance has shifted,' Jim Major, president of the Greater Boston Association of Realtors."

http://bit.ly/CurbCoolBosRE

ASSERTION #2. Rents are still going up so sales prices will likely increase in Spring 2020.

REBUTTAL #2: Rising rents do not increase purchasing power, they deplete it.
Further, the Curbed Boston article you shared ends by suggesting rents may begin to fall in 2020. "Perhaps now that the Boston area’s for-sale market is cooling a bit more tenants will jump into that and free up space in the rental market, thereby bringing rents down."

ASSERTION #3. We really need a recession or rent control to truly tank the housing market.

REBUTTAL #3: The lowest interest rates in three years juiced purchasing power and prices earlier this year, but there's only so much demand you can pull forward. Further, demography is destiny, so watch for more signs the housing market has reached a #RETippingPoint in 2020 as we enter the first phase of the Great Senior Sell-Off:

http://bit.ly/SrSellOff

+ + +

Glad to continue a friendly debate offline over coffee or beer nearly any evening. Working on a series of topics for #REonTap. What would others, particularly potential homebuyers or sellers who fear they may have missed the top of the market -- #PeakRE, like to discuss in a friendly, civil way? Hope the content and tone of what's written above attracts thoughtful responses, here, on Twitter or inside the RealEstateCafe's private discussion room:

http://bit.ly/PeakAt_PeakBosRE


#1
The seller's market might be over, but until you see a trend of YOY price decreases, you can't really say the market has turned in favor of buyers.

#2
Rising rents do not increase purchasing power, they deplete it. -- But only for renters who aren't in a position to buy. A few hundred dollars more for rent devastating for the 40% who live paycheck to paycheck, but for a dual income professional pulling in over 200k, it gets to be an incentive to buy.
There's a reason why the 3 highest rents burdened cities are also have the 3 highest home prices.

#3
Mortgage interest rates have a small effect on housing prices. Look at the historical chart of mortgage rates and housing prices. In many cases, rising mortgage rates were accompanied by rising housing prices and falling rates were accompanied by falling housing prices. Interest rates are the same in Boston and Birmingham, but the housing prices are way different.
The most important factors of housing prices are:
1. location
2. location
3. location
4. pool of potential buyers
5. average income of the potential buyers
6. inventory of houses for sale
7. children
8. time of commute to work
9. pets
10. interest rates
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 198
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:11 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear Guest, prefer to use real names but glad to respond to your perspective. Before I do, my strong preference is to hear from others, particularly real homebuyers or potential sellers. Two BostonBubble community members have reached out in recent weeks and one suggested meeting again offline for #REonTap -- talking about real estate overbeer.

Last time, we enjoyed an open-ended conversation at Cambridge Common. Would anyone like to suggest other locations, like Aeronaut Brewery in Somerville or specific topics to cover?

As has been the case since 1993, am attending the National Association of Realtor's annual convention (even though I consumer advocate / critic of the industry). But because I make a living as a buyer agent, am trying to participate in as many of these sessions as possible or use insights to help clients save money:

http://bit.ly/NARAnnual_VirtualRETables

Contrary to the Guest bulletpoint #3 below, NAR's chief economist said that falling interest rates magically revived the housing market after it began to cool in 2018, but cautioned that rising interest rates are in the future. Dont believe me, here's a tweet of one of his many, many slides:

https://twitter.com/travisclose/status/1192855720762327041/photo/1

If you'd like to see more of his slides, or review LIVE NOTES from other sessions, please text 617-661-4046 and let's talk about your interest.
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website AIM Address
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:28 am GMT    Post subject: Re: GBAR: Boston home values have ‘likely peaked’ Reply with quote

. We really need a recession or rent control to truly tank the housing market.

https://boston.curbed.com/2019/10/31/20942220/boston-apartment-rents-november-2019[/quote]

Don't count on a recession during an election year. The impending recession has thus far been thwarted by massive government sending ($1 T deficit this year) and lowering of interest rates.
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