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BostonRealEstate
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bsg61
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 Posted: Wed May 11, 2016 4:33 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Again I find it interesting that boston.com has disabled any ability to comment on these RE articles. Now it has to be done on their Facebook page which requires much scrolling to find any RE articles (buried in the many Tom Brady posts).
In the past I was entertained and informed by the likes of REMaven, FormerlyFrank, gbaladi, Nolongerbostonian and other cranks commenting on the past, current and future state of the nutty RE market in Boston and its environs. The commenters could be pretty brutal to the writers, especially Scott VV, perhaps explaining their sudden disappearance. Nothing good lasts forever, including affordable places to live (in or close to the city). |
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Guest
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| Posted: Wed May 11, 2016 6:14 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Eh, so what. Any good property goes for five or six figures over ask. That's why they're priced so low, to create a frenzy. It works.
Full disclosure, I just bought in Arlington for a hefty sum over ask. Got my appraisal from bank. It matches my bid to the dollar. I think I did well relative to recent sales of smaller houses on smaller lots with higher sales prices. |
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Anon202
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| Posted: Wed May 11, 2016 7:01 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Anonymous wrote: | Eh, so what. Any good property goes for five or six figures over ask. That's why they're priced so low, to create a frenzy. It works.
Full disclosure, I just bought in Arlington for a hefty sum over ask. Got my appraisal from bank. It matches my bid to the dollar. I think I did well relative to recent sales of smaller houses on smaller lots with higher sales prices. |
Got any tips on how to figure out what a house will appraise for approximately? |
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Guest
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| Posted: Wed May 11, 2016 10:45 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Anon202 wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | Eh, so what. Any good property goes for five or six figures over ask. That's why they're priced so low, to create a frenzy. It works.
Full disclosure, I just bought in Arlington for a hefty sum over ask. Got my appraisal from bank. It matches my bid to the dollar. I think I did well relative to recent sales of smaller houses on smaller lots with higher sales prices. |
Got any tips on how to figure out what a house will appraise for approximately? |
Wish I could tell you, but I figure it's impossible to really know. It's subjective. You're relying on an appraiser's guess. All I can say is don't do a batshit crazy overbid. Unless the place is priced way too low. Don't walk away from the deal feeling like a sucker. If it feels wrong, GTFO. |
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Dudeman
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| Posted: Thu May 12, 2016 2:45 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Got any tips on how to figure out what a house will appraise for approximately? |
This basically depends on similar house or condo's recent sold price near by. You can get the recent sold property price in real estate websites or many town's assessor webpages. This only give you the around number, then location, interior condition, environment etc will add or subtract amount from that around number.
The truth is, appraisal is 'seasonal'. Because it depends on 'RECENT' sold prices.
In this type of low inventory seller's market, just don't expect you will pay below market price on any decent property. If you found a 'deal' in current market, be extra careful to check all things in details, as almost always there will be hidden ugliness between lines. |
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Richthofen
Joined: 02 Apr 2014
Posts: 69
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| Posted: Fri May 13, 2016 12:54 pm GMT Post subject: |
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I mean appraisals are mostly useless during a bubble. Banks hire appraisal firms that tell them what they want to hear so they collect closing costs. Then the loan is sold to Fannie or Freddie so who gives a shit if the market turns and the house loses 30% in value?
When I bought my condo in 2006 the appraisal came right in line at 200k. When I sold short in 2011 the new buyers appraisal agreed with our $100k price. The appraisal is useless during a bubble and is only there to make sure blatant mortgage fraud is not committee (something Fannie/Freddie can send the loan back for). Whereas if it's just a bubble Fannie Freddie are fucked and get a bailout. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Fri May 13, 2016 1:47 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Richthofen wrote: | I mean appraisals are mostly useless during a bubble. Banks hire appraisal firms that tell them what they want to hear so they collect closing costs. Then the loan is sold to Fannie or Freddie so who gives a shit if the market turns and the house loses 30% in value?
When I bought my condo in 2006 the appraisal came right in line at 200k. When I sold short in 2011 the new buyers appraisal agreed with our $100k price. The appraisal is useless during a bubble and is only there to make sure blatant mortgage fraud is not committee (something Fannie/Freddie can send the loan back for). Whereas if it's just a bubble Fannie Freddie are fucked and get a bailout. |
I get what you're saying, but when the appraisal and offer price agree, and they are in line with comp sales, or even *undercut* comp sales (as in my case), you have a pretty good indication that you didn't fuck up on offer price. As long as there is no crash, that is. If there's a crash, and you are forced to sell, all bets are off. |
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Dudeman
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| Posted: Fri May 13, 2016 3:35 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Dudeman wrote: | http://realestate.boston.com/buying/2016/05/11/low-home-appraisals-no-longer-a-problem/
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Hard to interpret this as the buyers fucking up, the appraisers fucking up, a combination of the two, or neither. Typical boston.com bullshit. |
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Guest432
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| Posted: Fri May 13, 2016 5:20 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Oh sale prices are getting too high? Let's just increase the appraisals to make them seem more reasonable. All these banks and mortgage companies haven't learned a single lesson from the housing crisis. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Fri May 13, 2016 5:49 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Guest432 wrote: | | Oh sale prices are getting too high? Let's just increase the appraisals to make them seem more reasonable. All these banks and mortgage companies haven't learned a single lesson from the housing crisis. |
Thing is, there's actual underwriting standards now. The economy is stratifying - the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer. Boston is becoming richer. Hence housing prices go up, and those who aren't able to keep up are being pushed out.
Honestly, I think it sucks. But a bubble it does not make. Notice that the middle class in Boston is shrinking, while the upper class is growing: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/13/upshot/falling-middle-class.html |
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Dudeman
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| Posted: Fri May 13, 2016 6:10 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Notice that the middle class in Boston is shrinking, while the upper class is growing |
Just try to make sure I read it right here, in the article, did it say 3 people family with $125,000 annual income as middle class or upper class?!
If it try to say that is upper class, please just drag the writer of this article out to the field and put an bullet in his or her head for me, please! |
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Guest
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| Posted: Fri May 13, 2016 7:34 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Dudeman wrote: | | Quote: | | Notice that the middle class in Boston is shrinking, while the upper class is growing |
Just try to make sure I read it right here, in the article, did it say 3 people family with $125,000 annual income as middle class or upper class?!
If it try to say that is upper class, please just drag the writer of this article out to the field and put an bullet in his or her head for me, please! |
You read correctly, family of 3 making $125K is middle class, according to this study by by the Pew Research Center. My family of 3 has an income just over twice that number, and we still feel like we're middle class in this city.[/i] |
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Richthofen
Joined: 02 Apr 2014
Posts: 69
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| Posted: Wed May 18, 2016 2:56 pm GMT Post subject: |
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It's not just Boston. This type of thing is happening ALL OVER. Portland, ME is really getting hammered despite the lack of good paying jobs up there:
http://tides.bangordailynews.com/2016/05/05/home/portland-woman-pens-epic-post-about-citys-rental-market/
Rental prices in Providence are also increasing, due to lack of inventory:
http://www.providencejournal.com/article/20160116/NEWS/160119659
There's a lot of money being created by the Fed. And a lot of money being onshored to escape China (we sent 5 trillion in trade deficits to China over the last 20+ years, hence the 'great moderation' where there was no inflation. we exported it. and now its coming back). And this new money is chasing too-few real resources/hard assets. So the money pours into Boston, and the have-nots in Boston go to Portland and Providence, and the have-nots there go to... ?
It's the same reason Fine Art is exploding in price.
http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-32700575
CPI is not capturing this inflation because gradually, CPI was modified over time to be more heavily weighted towards consumer goods imported from China and other places. Note that CPI does not care about house prices (rather OER, which is badly a lagging indicator), college tuition or medical costs.
Is it a bubble? That depends. Can these empty luxury units in South Boston continue to float if interest rates are forced upwards? The only things I see changing this trend, having been looking at this for god, 10+ years, are a lack of faith in central banks (a major central bank failure or devaulation), causing interest rates to rise... or political instability. I think the political instability caused by economic disenfranchisement is underrepresented in markets. I almost secretly hope Trump is elected just to see the FIRE economy edifice really burn down. Unless Trump is just a salesmen and its business as usual if he's elected. Who knows at this point. |
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