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news · Joined: 14 Jul 2007 Posts: 0 Location: Greater Boston

Use this forum thread to discuss the following link.

Description: Fed expects 10 year Treasuries to return to ~4% by 2018
URL: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-staff-forecasts-that-the-fed-accid ...truncated...
Info/Broken?: http://www.bostonbubble.com/link_info.php?id=4161

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admin · Posted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 11:34 am GMT Post subject:

This is highly relevant because mortgage rates follow 10-year Treasury yields, and the whiplash housing turnaround that started a few years ago was precipitated and continues to be fueled by historically low mortgage rates (plus anemic inventory). Note the graph in the article of the 10-year Treasury yields and how the plunge in yields exactly corresponds to the strong buyers market in housing. The amount of predictive power that the Fed has is an entirely separate (and questionable) matter, so I would still consider the timing a return to 4% yields up in the air.

- admin

showgunx · Joined: 14 Jul 2005 Posts: 60

With this kind of future prediction of rate hike trend, we should always be smarter and ask why it would happen instead of believing it should and/or will happen.

Can someone please tell me why 10-year Treasury yield would go up to 4% by 2018? What good would it do to the economy? Or this could be a side effect of an unforeseeable global event that is looming for the past few years?
If we can spot the reason supporting yield hike as final outcome, then we can allocate our wealth before hands to benefit from the situation.