bostonbubble.com

[watching]

There's not a lot of new data here, but the publicity is something else: dropping prices is now a mainstream story. Once "don't rush in" becomes common wisdom, what will happen?

http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2014/11/16/very-strange-housing-recovery-mass/gSd1y7Zt37YDlj5NfUiqnM/story.html

"A year ago, it seemed nothing could stop the Massachusetts housing market recovery.

"Bidding wars broke out for properties, sales jumped, and prices followed. Foreclosures declined and new home construction rebounded. Everything seemed to be coming together, five long years after the financial crisis that followed last decade’s housing bust.

"Flash forward to today: Sales are down, foreclosures are up, and buyers are walking away from pending deals. Construction of new housing is falling again. To top it off: Single-family home prices in September fell compared with the same month in 2013, the first such price decline in two years, according to the Warren Group, a real estate research and publishing company."

[RealEstateCafe]

@Guest Looks like we were writing at the same time... so I'll edit my original post, and reply to your question.

First, would like to agree with your assumption that falling prices will get more coverage by mainstream press, and "don't rush in" will become new normal. From my perspective as someone who has blogged for the past two years about the iCovery -- ILLUSION of recovery -- both are appropriate.

However, the conventional real estate industry has a seller bias and ability to spin the story by focusing on data and markets where prices are still rising; and in an effort to be unbiased the press and some bloggers will continue to sensationalize bidding wars anecdotes.

This time of year, it's not uncommon for more than 1,000 listings statewide to expire or be canceled every week. In an effort to get paid for months of marketing, some listing agents will convince sellers to slash prices to stimulate bidding war frenzy. So don't be surprised if a falling market brings a bounce, particularly when 1Q2015 stats are compared to the polar vortex market of 1Q2014.

In the meantime, anyone want to MEET OFFLINE for a Bubble Hour to develop different scenarios about what might happen in the market, and share strategies to time decisions? Assume that most BostonBubble readers are buyers, but curious what sellers are thinking -- particularly if they fear they missed the optimal time to sell.

MeetUp at iYoCafe in Somerville this week to talk? Or meet at the SkillShare event tomorrow in Somerville to share perspectives on the housing market?
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe

[RealEstateCafe]

Here's an example of how some bloggers continue to sensationalize bidding wars:

Extreme Over-Asks in the Hub: Where They Happen the Most
http://bit.ly/OverAskHub

The blogger points to Cambridge, but fails to make a distinction between the pace of bidding wars during 2Q2014 and the sharp drop in September when sales dropped a stunning 42%, falling from 122 in July to just 71. More details are the RECafe's blog post below:

Bidding War Scorecard: Is Designated Agency having a bipolar impact in Cambridge?

http://bit.ly/AgencyFraud
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe

[Guest]

Big surprise here. When every POS 1,200 SF outhouse built in 1890 on 2,000 SF goes for $600K, something's got to give.

Boy, am I glad I walked away from a tiny $515K Arlington crapshack last year.

[Guest]

+1