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Use this forum thread to discuss the following link.

Description: Lynn Cohen of Keller WIlliams in Newton: "People now realize that they've seen the bottom... People are trying very desperately to get into a property before they are priced out."
URL: http://money.msn.com/home-loans/article.aspx?post=b285f727-7b1e-46cd-a14e-2fcfda ...truncated...
Info/Broken?: http://www.bostonbubble.com/link_info.php?id=4018

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[admin]

Everybody had better buy now or everybody will be priced out forever! Deja vu.

The rest of the article provides a more likely explanation for the recent 8 - 10% price rice in Newton that Ms. Cohen cites as evidence that the bottom has passed, if you connect the dots (which the author apparently did not do - simply look at when rates most recently plummeted and seasonality). The article's title and initial focus is Rising rates, prices panic would-be homeowners, which has been a topic of speculation here on these forums before the rise began. Things could start to get interesting soon.

- admin

[balor123]

Some friends of mine are trying to buy a 3br place pretty much anywhere around 95 belt with good schools right now. They're not too picky except on 1 item: under $500k, a decent budget by pretty much any standard. I was shocked to see that right now, there's virtually nothing on the market meeting those criteria! When you search for recent sales lots of stuff but market is picked clean right now.

Hot but not as hot in Austin right now. Things have slowed down some last 1-2 months. Homes sell in 1-2 months now instead of 1-2 weeks

[admin]

Here's one under $500K that just got listed:

http://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/48-Oakland-Ave-02476/home/8457982

Of course, it looks like it needs a ton of work.

I don't know how your friends are determining what qualifies for good schools, so that might be an issue too. Arlington High was "only" at the top of the average range, last I checked on GreatSchools. The top of the average range would be good enough for me, provided that the ranking criteria were representative of actual quality - that is a huge sticking point, though, as I have yet to see ranking criteria for schools that actually seems like a good way to measure quality.

I was at an open house in Winchester a few weeks ago, and the Realtor was trying to talk up the school district as a strong selling point for the house (despite all of the schools in Winchester being relatively good, by the coarse criteria I remember seeing). She said that it was in the best district, which I was already aware of, if you go by test scores (not a great way to do it, but perhaps better than nothing for very coarse granularity). But then she proceeded to elaborate and ended up making me even more suspicious of school comparisons than I already was. She said that the school was better because 1) it was 30% Asian and 2) they ship all the special needs kids off to some other school. That's great. Assuming those things explain the aggregate test scores for the respective schools, how exactly would they affect my kid's individual education? She was implying that Asians bring the average up and special needs kids bring it down, but going to a particular school isn't going to change whether my kid is Asian or special needs. If anything, it made me think that homes which use the school that they segregate the special needs kids to would be a better value because people would draw invalid conclusions about the relative performance of the school by only looking at the average. I discussed this with friends later, one of whom pointed out that they might back out special needs scores from the aggregates, but that then made me wonder if that's a backdoor for gaming scores that some towns could abuse.

- admin

[balor123]

They're in Arlington now and I think they'd be happy to stay there. The schools look good to me and as I recall are generally well regarded. One that I'm not so clear on is Waltham, which their Realtor recommended given their budget. People don't say good things about it but GreatSchools lists Plympton as a 7/10, which covers them for 7-8 years. That should be good enough, no? Worst case, once the average home price in Boston reaches $5mil, they get stuck in Waltham and have to send their kids to middle and high school there, which are 5/10. Not great but not slum either. Main problem with this plan is their kids would have to make new friends between elementary and middle school. I had radically different friends at all levels personally.

I'm surprised the Realtor mentioned the percentage of Asians to you in Winchester. They aren't supposed to discuss demographics, right? I'm wary of schools which are ranked too highly. It means the environment is probably not a very diverse one.

[admin]

[balor123]

I don't know about them but I wouldn't touch that new listing in Arlington with a ten foot pole. It's a total fixer upper. By itself, that's not a problem (though they'd need a lower price point) but the ideal fixer upper is one which was well maintained but grossly out of style. It doesn't even look like they're bothering to hide the mold in this one.

There's some new town homes in Newyon that just popped up for closer to $600k that look nice. Other than being over budget and stone's throw from the pike, seems like a nice property in this market. Of course, selling a property like that in a down market could be a real pain. I wonder how loud the Pike is inside.

[admin]

Here's another one that just popped up in Arlington under $500K:

http://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/23-Clyde-Ter-02474/home/8437631

The listing says "add your finishing touches..." but the pictures say total fixer upper again.

- admin

[balor123]

That one looks much better, though it'll be closer to $550k once renovated.

[admin]

Here's one that just showed up in Lexington for $489K:

http://www.redfin.com/MA/Lexington/12-Watertown-St-02421/home/8542887

According to Zillow, they tried to sell in 2010, gave up in 2011, and are now trying again with the price jacked up $50K / 11%. They may succeed, too, given the lunacy that has emerged this year.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/12-Watertown-St-Lexington-MA-02421/56487829_zpid/

- admin

[balor123]

Is it just me or does that resemble a mobile home (and an old not updated one at that)? At $489k for .29acres, though, it's not priced much above the cost of land. Redfin claims the land is worth $290k from tax records. What do you think?

[admin]

Yeah, you're right. It does remind me of a mobile home, even more so if you look at it on Google Street View. That, and the street looks busy. Using Google's satellite view and "What's here?" on the surrounding area was interesting too.

- admin