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Boston ITer



Joined: 11 Jan 2010
Posts: 269

PostPosted: Sat Aug 14, 2010 11:21 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpr wrote:


Meanwhile all those bright people go into trading rather than doing
something useful like becoming engineers, scientists etc.

A simple soiution would be to impose a small transaction tax.
This wouldn't really effect legitimate investors since it would be
fraction of 1 percent. The argument is that the activity would go
overseas. Well that would be good. At least it would allow us recapture
some of the wasted human capital.



mpr, the genie's out of the bottle. There are fewer and fewer American youths, who want to become engineers, given the long term spectre of offshoring. And no amount of hand waving and pretenses of *eminent shortage* will change the current vector. Realize, when there's an authentic shortage, salaries increase. Here, jobs simply end up in Vietnam or China and executives get bonuses.

Bright people will go into trading because it's really the only game in town besides becoming a doctor or a patent lawyer. Adding scalping fees will either make stateside traders more 'position traders' or just move the volume of high churn scalps over to the Eurex or HKMEx. All and all, the world is finance is more powerful than Main St.
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mpr



Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 344

PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:12 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boston ITer wrote:


mpr, the genie's out of the bottle. There are fewer and fewer American youths, who want to become engineers, given the long term spectre of offshoring. And no amount of hand waving and pretenses of *eminent shortage* will change the current vector. Realize, when there's an authentic shortage, salaries increase. Here, jobs simply end up in Vietnam or China and executives get bonuses.

Bright people will go into trading because it's really the only game in town besides becoming a doctor or a patent lawyer. Adding scalping fees will either make stateside traders more 'position traders' or just move the volume of high churn scalps over to the Eurex or HKMEx. All and all, the world is finance is more powerful than Main St.


I think this is too pessimistic and I dont buy what you're saying,
especially in the absence of any data.

Its well known that there is a shortage of domestically trained people
in engineering. Thats why the US imports many of them every year.
Its called the H2B visa program. Of course this importation helps
to bridge the shortage, but in any case it isn't true that in a shortage
situation wages would necessarily rise until the shortage disappeared;
in this case the supply curve is probably pretty inelastic.
By the way, by "engineer" I dont just mean software engineer,
the category which is perhaps most susceptible to being off shored.

This is actually one part of the US system which works well: because
its an attractive place to live the US still attracts the best human capital.

Of course with the advance of technology more and more jobs will become
commoditized and susceptible to off shoring. Thus we can expect the trend
where the top few people capture a larger and larger portion of GDP to
continue. The Tea party types would do well to consider the social implications of this: there is no law of economics which says the
average person can produce enough economic value to make a decent
living.

There's no real reason why various kinds of trading can't be regulated
and/or taxed out of existence. If they go overseas, thats fine.
They'll be using up the bright people in other countries and will
make US capital markets more attractive for real investors.

I'm not optimistic that any of this will happen (perhaps we can agree there)
because the average US voter seems to have a hard time identifying
there own self interest. But that doesn't mean that there is some intrinsic
reason it couldn't be done.
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balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204

PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 1:20 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Certainly wages don't have to rise just because there is a shortage. The business conditions have to support it for starters. Google and Goldman Sachs make about the same per employee. The supply vs demand curve needs to support high pay as mentioned as well but we know that there's a shortage. Even with high demand, paying more needs to motivate employees. Google might pay more if it thought that would keep people from leaving and I suspect that this is part of the problem. Bankers are among the most greedy works on the planet and will jump ship in a heartbeat over money but eningeers typically will not so companies don't use it as a way to retain employees.
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balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204

PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 1:26 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

As an engineer, though, I find it unfair that when tech companies have trouble hiring talent America generously allows them to import talent rather than having to pay to poach from foreign employers. But when there's a shortage of doctors, we're all forced to pay the rising costs even though there are many qualified doctors who would love to immigrate and bring the cost down. If engineers pursued such a policy, then the opportunities would naturally migrate overseas as companies in Asia would naturally displace American companies. Doctors, lawyers, bankers, etc don't have this problem. They can erect barriers and force others to pay them. The only way their professions can become less lucrative is if America as a whole becomes poorer and they are unable constrain supply enough to make up for it. This "rent" have been rising for years.
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Boston ITer



Joined: 11 Jan 2010
Posts: 269

PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 6:54 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

balor123 wrote:
But when there's a shortage of doctors, we're all forced to pay the rising costs even though there are many qualified doctors who would love to immigrate and bring the cost down. If engineers pursued such a policy, then the opportunities would naturally migrate overseas as companies in Asia would naturally displace American companies. Doctors, lawyers, bankers, etc don't have this problem. They can erect barriers and force others to pay them.


Balor, if the AMA was completely busted and the US granted work visas to all of the world's neurosurgeons, the salaries would drop from $500K to $100-125K w/o a problem. They know this and thus, limit those who can get a residency in top specialties, to insure a steady stream of graduates at a similar clip as back in the early 80s.


balor123 wrote:
Google and Goldman Sachs make about the same per employee.


Google is a more an advertising agency or TV network than a tech company. I doubt that most regular tech companies, which design batteries, switches, chemical processes, etc, make the same per employee as Goldman or some other hedgie.


balor123 wrote:
Its well known that there is a shortage of domestically trained people in engineering.


If this is so then why are there so many PhDs and postdocs, who're not being actively recruited by companies? The various companies where I've worked, seldom hire these persons. In real shortage situations, even if let's say salaries were slightly depressed, they certainly beat the grad school/postdoc stipends. Likewise, even undergrads, who lack an 'exactly' matching CO-OP/internship, face a similar situation in tech.

In contrast, when a science/engineering undergrad even has a single project which is business related, like fixing a tax assignment dll in someone's code base, they're immediately hirable by an Accenture or PriceWaterHouseCoopers. Thus, once again, a science person leaves for a more business-like role than R&D. Management consulting strikes again!

BTW, here's Prof Matoff's opinion on the matter ...

http://heather.cs.ucdavis.edu/h1b.html


balor123 wrote:
I'm not optimistic that any of this will happen (perhaps we can agree there)


Sure, and thus, the vector is for bright students to enter finance over R&D. Honestly, we do live in a hierarchical world and it makes little sense for young people not to go for where the power and money lie.

And even in my aforementioned example, involving management consulting firms, many young associates realize that that's a better path towards becoming a VP or Director of something than in going through the technical route at a company. Lou Grestner was a McKinsey Consultant & AMEX VP, who later became the CEOs of Nabisco and IBM. He wasn't an EE R&D team lead or a patent holder on a new type of surface chemistry adhesive but yet, he was running one of America's largest tech companies.
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Boston ITer



Joined: 11 Jan 2010
Posts: 269

PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 7:13 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry, this quote was by mpr, not Balor.

mpr wrote:
Its well known that there is a shortage of domestically trained people in engineering.
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mpr



Joined: 06 Jun 2009
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 8:52 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

BostonITer

Everything you write is just anecdotal, so its very hard to argue with
or take seriously.

Why dont you find some data - which should be easily available -
comparing the starting and median salaries of doctors, various types of
engineers and bankers.

You talk about how much a neurosurgeon earns. But thats a very highly
skilled specialty - actually subspecialty - which probably takes 10-15
years just to get the qualification. You cant compare that to someone
writing code out of college. Probably you should compare it to
some very senior high level software engineer at a top company.
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balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:03 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Primary care makes about $150k - $200k. Specialists make from $200k - $500k. Salaries do not vary much by skill level I think, as there's a massive shortage of doctors and the payers don't discriminate based on it. I wouldn't be surprised if their salaries dropped a lot if the floodgates were opened but I suspect neurosurgeons would probably still make a lot more than engineers. I imagine an engineer with a Phd might make about the same as a specialist. Part of the reason why American doctors make so much is that producing them is so woefully inefficient (itself a roadblock they've erected). America is the only country which requires doctors to go through a lihberal arts education before going to medical school. Due to the competitiveness, they are forced to go to the best and most expensive schools just to even have a shot of getting accepted. That's $150k in debt to begin with and they've learned nothing relevant to their careers. MCAT requires 1.5 years of preparation and a few thousand for the training course. Subsequent exams cost about the same. Medical schools themselves are usually very expensive in part because they have to hire expensive doctors to teach at them. Afterwards they are required to go through lengthy residencies. While they learn on the job, I suspect the long hours are partly a form of hazing and for the hospital to extract as much value out of them as possible, though they are subsidized by Medicare. We could save a lot by eliminating the liberal arts education, building more medical schools so all qualified applicants can enter the field, and reducing the workload during residency to just that which is useful for learning. I suspect if you did that you'd end up with European cost doctors. In the UK a primary care makes about $80k adjusted for local wages. Of course, doctors hate the brutalness of the field but I think given a choice most prefer the American system over the European one because, like all of us, they're willing to work harder for the extra pay, even if it's inefficient.

As for engineers, they start at about $60k with BS, $75k with MS, and $90k w/Phd. Regardless of degree, they'll saturate at about $140k in the Boston area. Some make more but usually as managers. Skill level is a combination of talent, resume, and luck - there's only so much you can do to make yourself a top employee. As you get older and make more job stability goes down significantly - that pay may not be reproducible at another employer. Engineers older than 40 often have a hard time finding employment, a big problem right now. These numbers are for the Boston area.
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Boston ITer



Joined: 11 Jan 2010
Posts: 269

PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2010 2:19 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

As Balor has stated above, salaries for MDs are in the ranges above and mainly vary between starting physicians, their area of work, and one's with a certain amount of experience.

http://www.allied-physicians.com/salary-surveys/physicians/

As you can see, general internal medicine pays the least and even that starts at ~$150K. The worst graduate from medical school can find a general internist job at a rural clinic somewhere.

Experienced specialists, for most areas, all earn above $200K w/o issues.

Engineering salaries, however, vary considerably, however, the top end isn't as well delineated in typical salary.com & payscale.com type of sites however, glassdoor.com does have engineering salary surveys from various elite tech companies.

DuPont:

http://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/Dupont-Chemical-Engineer-Salaries-E215_D_KO7,24.htm


Merck:

http://www.glassdoor.com/Salaries/merck-salary-SRCH_KE0,5.htm


QualComm:

http://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/QUALCOMM-Senior-Software-Engineer-Salaries-E640_D_KO9,33.htm

Motorola:

http://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/Motorola-Salaries-E451.htm


As you can see from the above, the top experienced engineers tend to be slightly above $100K but remain in a tight band not exceeding $140K, even at places like QualComm and Motorola. At mainstay places like DuPont or Merck, many peak out at ~$100K. These places are considered highly competitive (& prestigious) tech companies to be recruited into.
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Boston ITer



Joined: 11 Jan 2010
Posts: 269

PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2010 2:47 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Due to the competitiveness, they are forced to go to the best and most expensive schools just to even have a shot of getting accepted


Balor, I'm suspecting that some of that might be these overpriced colleges trying to dupe newcomers into attending.

Harvard Extension has a post-bachelors, premed program. Really, it's just 2 years Chemistry, 1 yr Biology, 1 yr Physics plus extras.

http://www.extension.harvard.edu/2010-11/programs/hcp/sponsor

From what I'd heard from them, anywhere from 80-90% get accepted to a single medical program from there. I suppose they do a good job of pre-screening, however, I don't think a 3.2(+) baseline is unreasonable for a medical school applicant.

I presume one could get an undergrad in accounting, work a few years, and then do the postbacc before attending medical school. That might be a way of splitting the risk factor so that the undergrad part isn't diluted in the typical unmarketable fields like general Biology or Humanities.
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mpr



Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 344

PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2010 3:04 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think its perfectly reasonable to compare an engineering PhD
with someone in general medicine. The number of years of
training is comparable, or even slightly more for a doctor.

When you talk about management positions (and since
you seem to insist engineer means software engineer)
I imagine that this could still be a senior engineering position.
For example, to take someone recently in the news, Eric Schmidt
used to be the head of Java development for Sun. Presumably
this was not because he new nothing about software engineering.

I'm not sure there's a shortage of doctors in the US (sources ?),
except possibly in some rural areas. As you point out, there are huge embedded costs in medical training in the US, and I'm not sure whether those salaries include the cost of liability insurance when the doctor is in private practice.

In any case, to return to the source of the discussion, I'd be quite happy
if some of those traders became doctors. But there are also plenty
of other gainful specialties. You seem to be focused on one particular
kind of engineering which may be impacted by the H1B program
maybe by about 20% (according to one of BostonITer's links),
and which also happens to be the most offshorable. I dont believe this is the primary reason college kids don't go into engineering.
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Boston ITer



Joined: 11 Jan 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:44 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

One of the reasons why I added in DuPont and Merck is that those places tend to hire more chemical engineers than IT types but yet, they also have trouble in keeping headcount.

http://www.industryweek.com/articles/dupont_slashes_2000_more_jobs_19097.aspx

http://prescriptions.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/08/merck-sheds-15-of-workforce/?src=twt&twt=nytimesbusiness

Quote:
You seem to be focused on one particular
kind of engineering which may be impacted by the H1B program
maybe by about 20% (according to one of BostonITer's links),
and which also happens to be the most offshorable. I dont believe this is the primary reason college kids don't go into engineering.


At least from my interactions with students from various programs, the main reason is the lack of stability of the tech fields, the threat of offshoring, and more lucrative opportunities in management consulting, finance, law, or medicine.

Here's an MC vs finance article, which indicates even MC losing out over finance related careers ...

http://managementconsulted.com/consulting-jobs/the-truth-behind-consulting-salaries-from-analyst-thru-partner/

I suspect that if trading starts to die down, then the shift will be more towards MC than tech.
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mpr



Joined: 06 Jun 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2010 5:21 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boston ITer wrote:

I suspect that if trading starts to die down, then the shift will be more towards MC than tech.


You may be right there. I dont know how that extra brainpower will be
absorbed. I don't regard MC or even regular banking, or even regular
investment managing as the same as pure trading. They're all activities
with real economic, at least potentially.
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Boston ITer



Joined: 11 Jan 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2010 5:43 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I don't regard MC or even regular banking, or even regular
investment managing as the same as pure trading. They're all activities
with real economic, at least potentially


The problem is that they're non-tradable goods/services, along with medicine and law, whereas science and engineering have a direct correlation to generating new products, industries, and service lines.

When the US white collar workforce is aligned so much away from the actual work, which generates true income generating potential for a first world economy, then you might as well have a global casino since then, our best and brightest can scalp profits from savings/pensions from around the globe.

MCs and IBs won't have the potential to shave off the global pool of capital for pure profiteering & are stuck in the mode of washing each others' laundry stateside.

Realize, futures and currency traders don't depend upon the NYSE/Nasdaq for their quick dollars. Those exchanges are worldwide.
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mpr



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PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2010 6:50 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boston ITer wrote:

The problem is that they're non-tradable goods/services, along with medicine and law, whereas science and engineering have a direct correlation to generating new products, industries, and service lines.


Why do you think MC (say) is further removed from "real products"
than software engineering which also doesn't produce anything
"tangible" (in the most literal sense). I also dont know what you mean
by non-tradable. Certainly MC's help lots of multinationals who then
"trade".

Boston ITer wrote:

When the US white collar workforce is aligned so much away from the actual work, which generates true income generating potential for a first world economy, then you might as well have a global casino since then, our best and brightest can scalp profits from savings/pensions from around the globe.


I have to say that as a general rule I am very skeptical about claims
that such and such a profession is not "real" work or doesn't
produce real economic activity. This is what the market is meant to determine. Especially in a modern, globalized economy such claims
are tough to prove.

This may seem odd, since I am the one arguing that trading is such an
activity, but I think thats a special case. Your argument about scalping
from the rest of the world may be correct, cynical though it is. Certainly
it makes sense if you're as negative about the rest of the US economy as
you are. For me its a bit like saying lets reintroduce privateering on the
high seas.
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