bostonbubble.com

[balor123]

Anyone have any idea how well house sales are doing in Boston after the tax credit expiration? How about after the turbulence this week (does the stock market even shake the confidence of buyers?)?

[CC]

It's too early to tell, but I think the market will decline again probably 2 months from now.

We will see!

[JCK]

Unless you're keeping tabs on the number of places going under agreement (which I don't know how to do), you won't see the change in sales for a couple months.

The real question is how much demand was pulled forward by the tax credit. If the credit was very important to buyers, then we should see a big slump now. If not, then things will continue as they were.

I suspect the credit has little impact in the "immune" towns that most on this board are concerned with, as I doubt that most of the immune town buyers are FTHBs. (And the $6500 credit for repeat buyers is nothing next to an $800k home.)

[balor123]

The immune towns will be affected but it will take longer. Boston has a huge pipeline and if the beginning of the pipeline isn't filling up at the same rate you can bet the end will eventually be emptying at a slower rate as well.

[jfunk138]

What I have noticed from my daily Redfin updates on areas of interest is the pace of new listings has slowed considerably from March and April. While I didn't see this coming, I'm starting to think now that not only was "demand" pushed forward by the credit, "supply" was also pushed forward. While buyers rushed to find houses, sellers also rushed to get their's on the market. Now that the pressure is gone both supply and demand are lower.

[balor123]

Interesting observation and makes sense. I wouldn't have thought that would be the case. Doesn't mean anything for prices except that RE lobbies will fight hard to spur demand even if no one is in trouble.

[balor123]

Google chart tracking the term “Boston Real Estate”

As expected... I suppose there's a chance people aren't using the internet to buy houses anymore.

[Brian C]

Two houses in my neighborhood aggressively dropped their prices from $430k to $399k in April to draw in interest. Well the open houses were packed and they did see offers because they were taken off the market 3-4 times over the month.

But the deal or financing feel apart because both properties are back on the market. One of the properties even went back to their original $430k price!

One property on my street was one the market for over 200days without a price drop. On May 1st, they took it off the market. Last I heard, they are renovating the kitchen and bathrooms so they can put it back on at their $440k price. FYI - my "project" house across the street sold for $310k.

My realtor friend told me that she has customers who are providing their own "rebate" by providing $8k towards closing or downpayment for the buyers. So far, its working since buyers felt like they missed the boat and she's moved 3 houses last week on those terms.

[CC]

[CC]

[Hard Rain]

" immune towns"

Name one...no such animal

[CL]

Brookline?

[Boston ITer]

[CL]

Re immune town: I initially thought immune town means the area where home price has the least downside risk. Brookline is special in a sense that it is very limited supply (especially newer housing stock) but very high demand (because of school system, proximity to Boston, easy commute, close to Longwood medical and BU think doctors and profs, etc), so there is structural reason why the price is high and defensive.

Re immune town as educated elite gathering spots: Of course not all the kids in these towns are going to Harvard and Oxbridge - that's fairly obvious.

The question is, all else equal, which school system give you a better chance to be successful, Newton or Watertown? Winchester or Woburn?

[Boston ITer]