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CC
Guest
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 Posted: Thu Apr 22, 2010 6:53 pm GMT Post subject: Current trend around greater Boston? |
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I probably will wait a while but may consider buying a house later this year or early next year. It really sucks. If the Fed and government didn't inflate the market, I probably had bought a house already.
Anyway, any idea about current trend around greater Boston (about 25 miles driving)?
Thanks! |
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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| Posted: Thu Apr 22, 2010 11:18 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Stabilizing seems to be the trend to me. |
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GenXer
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703
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| Posted: Thu Apr 22, 2010 11:19 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Why does it suck? I guess we don't mind renting, so actually, the longer we can put this 'inevitability' away - the better. As far as 25 miles, I think I'm 17 away from work, and it is at the logical limit - any more than that and it would become a burden. There are very few buyers right now - and those who buy are mostly after cheaper places. There is still a lot more to go as far as prices - I don't believe the declines are over. If they are, we're going to be in trouble a lot sooner than we think as a country (and as a state for that matter). Bottom line is this: if prices don't fall much further, something will give - and that something (i.e. higher taxes, massive bailouts) will lead us on a death spiral towards another crash. Rents are crashing down. You can now rent luxury condos much cheaper. I see prices are slashed across the board now - almost all of the declines happening within the past several months. Rentals are standing empty...just enjoy the ride. Not sure why you are so anxious. |
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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| Posted: Thu Apr 22, 2010 11:25 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Rents dropped a bit but they don't seem to be dropping anymore. I think we may be looking at another 5 years. |
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CC
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| Posted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 1:31 am GMT Post subject: |
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| GenXer wrote: | | .........I don't believe the declines are over. If they are, we're going to be in trouble a lot sooner than we think as a country (and as a state for that matter). Bottom line is this: if prices don't fall much further, something will give - and that something (i.e. higher taxes, massive bailouts) will lead us on a death spiral towards another crash. Rents are crashing down. You can now rent luxury condos much cheaper. I see prices are slashed across the board now - almost all of the declines happening within the past several months. Rentals are standing empty...just enjoy the ride. Not sure why you are so anxious. |
I don't believe the declines are over too but it's just wasting time because of this prolongation. And I hate my mom or some relatives always ask me why I still don't buy a house when I have already saved enough down payment. |
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mpr
Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 344
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| Posted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 1:46 am GMT Post subject: |
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| GenXer wrote: | | There is still a lot more to go as far as prices - I don't believe the declines are over. If they are, we're going to be in trouble a lot sooner than we think as a country (and as a state for that matter). Bottom line is this: if prices don't fall much further, something will give - and that something (i.e. higher taxes, massive bailouts) will lead us on a death spiral towards another crash. |
I thought it was impossible to make short term (or any kind of ) predictions
about house prices.  |
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CC
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 2:09 am GMT Post subject: |
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| mpr wrote: | | GenXer wrote: | | There is still a lot more to go as far as prices - I don't believe the declines are over. If they are, we're going to be in trouble a lot sooner than we think as a country (and as a state for that matter). Bottom line is this: if prices don't fall much further, something will give - and that something (i.e. higher taxes, massive bailouts) will lead us on a death spiral towards another crash. |
I thought it was impossible to make short term (or any kind of ) predictions
about house prices. |
Why is it impossible? Robert Shiller did it, so are many normal people.
It' almost impossible to predict exact timing for peak or bottom, but for trend it's not hard to have an educated guess. |
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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| Posted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:21 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Free markets only work when people actually rationally and for them to do so requires that they make and act on predictions. Even the EMH depends on it - a small number of active investors quickly bring efficiency to the market, allowing a large number of passive investors to follow their lead. |
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GenXer
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703
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| Posted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 11:19 am GMT Post subject: |
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| balor123 wrote: | | Rents dropped a bit but they don't seem to be dropping anymore. I think we may be looking at another 5 years. |
From 1800s all the way down to 1500s? That's a LOT in a short period of time. True, rents didn't drop all throughout, but right now we are still seeing the effect of the lower rates on everybody else. It is a spiral of sorts - it may even overshoot. Not too many ways to make cash now - so rents have nowhere to go but down. A typical rent I'm looking at went down 12%, and the deals are getting better. |
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GenXer
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703
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| Posted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 11:20 am GMT Post subject: |
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| mpr wrote: | | GenXer wrote: | | There is still a lot more to go as far as prices - I don't believe the declines are over. If they are, we're going to be in trouble a lot sooner than we think as a country (and as a state for that matter). Bottom line is this: if prices don't fall much further, something will give - and that something (i.e. higher taxes, massive bailouts) will lead us on a death spiral towards another crash. |
I thought it was impossible to make short term (or any kind of ) predictions
about house prices. |
Since when am I making predictions? I'm simply waiting for the clock to be wrong twice  |
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GenXer
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703
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| Posted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 11:27 am GMT Post subject: |
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| balor123 wrote: | | Free markets only work when people actually rationally and for them to do so requires that they make and act on predictions. Even the EMH depends on it - a small number of active investors quickly bring efficiency to the market, allowing a large number of passive investors to follow their lead. |
This is way too simplistic. I'd stay away from generalizations like that. Markests are a lot more complex than that, and certainly nowhere near 'efficient'. Its a deterministic pipe dream cooked up by people who didn't know what they were talking about - they simply saw the markets in some sort of 'classical' light, which is not even wrong.
One thing we know for sure - markets can have multiplicative effects when a bunch of players all jump in at the same time (or jump out at the same time). This actually drives the markets more than anything else. This causes abnormal gains/losses. Why and how, and for how long - nobody knows. Nothing 'efficient' about that. The only thing that's 'efficient' about the markets right now is the ability of buyers/sellers to fight it out instantaneously at the click of a mouse. And the ability of a lot of not very bright players to participate as well. This makes things fun for those who stick around and don't try to time the crowd - which is indeed impossible, and more so recently, now that the sheer magnitude and speed of transactions makes it quite impossible (if it was ever possible) |
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GenXer
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703
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| Posted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 5:32 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| CC wrote: | | GenXer wrote: | | .........I don't believe the declines are over. If they are, we're going to be in trouble a lot sooner than we think as a country (and as a state for that matter). Bottom line is this: if prices don't fall much further, something will give - and that something (i.e. higher taxes, massive bailouts) will lead us on a death spiral towards another crash. Rents are crashing down. You can now rent luxury condos much cheaper. I see prices are slashed across the board now - almost all of the declines happening within the past several months. Rentals are standing empty...just enjoy the ride. Not sure why you are so anxious. |
I don't believe the declines are over too but it's just wasting time because of this prolongation. And I hate my mom or some relatives always ask me why I still don't buy a house when I have already saved enough down payment. |
Just proves the rule that buying a house is emotional more than it is not. Maybe I should offer 'family therapy' sessions - bring the key 'naggers' so that I can teach them something about financial planning and risk management. I know certain types of immigrant families believe an outside authority, so maybe they won't be so hard on their kids I'm sure you are also an exception to the rule - most kids dutifully plunge. |
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GenXer
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703
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| Posted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 5:36 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| CC wrote: | | mpr wrote: | | GenXer wrote: | | There is still a lot more to go as far as prices - I don't believe the declines are over. If they are, we're going to be in trouble a lot sooner than we think as a country (and as a state for that matter). Bottom line is this: if prices don't fall much further, something will give - and that something (i.e. higher taxes, massive bailouts) will lead us on a death spiral towards another crash. |
I thought it was impossible to make short term (or any kind of ) predictions
about house prices. |
Why is it impossible? Robert Shiller did it, so are many normal people.
It' almost impossible to predict exact timing for peak or bottom, but for trend it's not hard to have an educated guess. |
Schiller didn't do it, actually. He did in a general sense, just like Nassim Taleb called this crash. But not in enough detail to know
1) The duration
2) The timing
3) The magnitude
You remove these three, and you don't have a timing system anymore - you have a gambling one. No amount of education will change it. This is why people keep trusting charlatans and charlatans keep losing people's money. People never learn because there will always be somebody who claims to be an oracle with super-natural abilities to predict the stock market. Anybody who claims to be able to do so, whether through divine providence or through non-parametric GARCH Monte Carlo simulations, it makes no difference - something that's physically impossible to do will still be impossible. |
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mpr
Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 344
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| Posted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:25 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| GenXer wrote: | | mpr wrote: | | GenXer wrote: | | There is still a lot more to go as far as prices - I don't believe the declines are over. If they are, we're going to be in trouble a lot sooner than we think as a country (and as a state for that matter). Bottom line is this: if prices don't fall much further, something will give - and that something (i.e. higher taxes, massive bailouts) will lead us on a death spiral towards another crash. |
I thought it was impossible to make short term (or any kind of ) predictions
about house prices. |
Since when am I making predictions? I'm simply waiting for the clock to be wrong twice |
Sorry, but I think this is disingenuous. You claim that one cant predict
timing, duration or magnitude of house price movements, but what you
wrote above becomes meaningless if you dont impose any kind of timing
assumptions.
"I dont believe the declines are over" surely means you expect the
a move down. But without any claim on timing what does this mean ?
That there will be a move down within the next 100 years ?
The last sentence makes some kind of vague macro economic predictions
which is subject to the same kind of criticisms but I think I'll leave it there. |
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GenXer
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703
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| Posted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:59 pm GMT Post subject: |
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I already told you that I'm not betting on predictions. I'm betting on me being able to afford to buy when I need to, and that either happens or it doesn't. Thus the broken clock analogy. It's actually 100% spot on.
Its safe for me to make any prediction I want. There is a huge difference between my 'predictions' and those of other people who actually put their money on theirs. I would discourage anybody to put money on my predictions.
Do you see the difference? I've made that point several times before, but every time I have to make it again because people don't see the difference. I expect to make money whatever happens. Maybe not as much as if I 'guessed' it right, but at least I will not risk losing it if I'm wrong. |
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