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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
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 Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2005 5:07 am GMT Post subject: Knowing the burst when it hits |
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How will we know that the burst has started once it hits? When the stock market crash began in 2000, it wasn't apparent until the crash was well underway that it was indeed a crash. Given that real estate is much less liquid, will the signs be substantially more spread out over time? How will we know when we are in the midst of the burst? Perhaps it has already started.
Here are some ideas for gauging whether the burst has begun:
- Seasonally adjusted volume of sales drops substantially. (This has already happened.)
- Seasonally adjusted median sale prices drop for several consecutive months.
- Median time on the market increases substantially.
What is the most reliable metric? What resources can be used to measure each?
Any other suggestions?
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john p
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820
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| Posted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 1:17 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Remember this post Admin? |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
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| Posted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 1:37 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| john p wrote: | | Remember this post Admin? |
Yep. That was two months before the year over year change in inflation adjusted median price went negative. That would have been a decent metric, especially coupled with a moving average to smooth out anomalies, which also went negative six months later:
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