bostonbubble.com

[RealEstateCafe]

Market snapshot confirms seasonal price reductions even in desirable towns

FULL link: http://realestatecafe.com/market-snapshot-confirms-seasonal-price-reductions-even-in-desirable-towns/

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Short link: http://bit.ly/SavingsSnapshot
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe

[optimus]

What does this mean for the housing market in the short and long term for the Boston?

[RealEstateCafe]

@Optimus Some of us offered an opinion on your question earlier this year, pointing to comments from Zillow's economist:

#Zillow Economist: Homeprice Gains Not Normal, Sustainable, Believable http://bit.ly/SurREal #BiddingWarBacklash see http://bit.ly/Down18pct

http://snapbird.org/RealEstateCafe/timeline/BiddingWarBacklash

More recently, we pointed to Robert Shiller's warning:

RealEstateCafe .@GlobeHomes #DIY #Homebuyers see #RobertShiller's warning, Market Psychology: Thanksgiving vs TrustGiving in RE bit.ly/TrustGiving #VRM

http://snapbird.org/RealEstateCafe/timeline/RobertShiller
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe

[Former Arlingtonian]

How much more debt can we heap on to drive real estate higher?

According to this presentation by Freddie Mac,
www.freddiemac.com/investors/pdffiles/investor-presentation.pdf
Go to page 23 of this presentation

The current value of residential real estate in the US is $18.6 Trillion!

Of the $18.6 trillion - $9.3 Trillion is Mortgage Debt.

In 1990 it looks like Residentail R/E total value was $7 trillion and Mortgage debt was $2-2.5 trillion.

Debt is driving Real Estate - the value of residential real estate has been rising as Americans take of greater and greater amounts of debt as the cost of borrowing fell since the mid 1980s.

What happens as we now begin to reverse course?

[balor123]

Some neat stats. Do they break it down by location too? I bet its very regional.

Should be interesting to see how tapering down the mortgage limits affects the market. Places like San Francisco and Boston will probably be hit hard but not in all locations. The market as a whole shouldn't see that much of a hit so might not be on anyone's radar to fix, except if you have to live in one of these areas!

[RealEstateCafe]

@Balor123 wrote: "Places like San Francisco and Boston will probably be hit hard but not in all locations."

Can you elaborate on your hypothesis? Not disputing, in fact WANT to see that happen, but would like to layout a series of causal factors for what happened in 2013, and watch data and trends to follow in 2014 to identify downward trends.

Here's one data snippet: For all of the spin about low inventory, you would expect that there would be half as many expired and canceled listings in 2013 vs 2012. Not so.

From 9/26/13 to today, 12/18/13, there have been 11,003 expired and canceled MLS listings statewide in MA according to MLSPin. During the same period last year, there were 12,009 expired and canceled listings, or less than 10% more.

Anyone want to meet online or off to identify other stats and emerging trends, Bubble Hour-style? If we meet at a wifi-MeetUp friendly space, like the "classroom" in the rear of iYo Cafe in Davis Square or family-friendly play space at http://TogetherInMotion.com at One Broadway in Arlington, we could use Google Hangout or another web conferencing app to invite others to join us, even those now living out of state!

My experience is that their perspective on the Boston housing market is insightful because they are outside the distortion fields and able to see them with more clarity!
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe