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Feb 2008 MA SFH sales fall 22.9% YOY, median price down 4.6%

 
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news



Joined: 14 Jul 2007
Posts: 0
Location: Greater Boston
PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 2:25 pm GMT    Post subject: Feb 2008 MA SFH sales fall 22.9% YOY, median price down 4.6% Reply with quote
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Description: Feb 2008 MA SFH sales fall 22.9% YOY, median price down 4.6% nominally. Condo sales down 34.6%, median price down 6.7% nominally.
URL: http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2008/03/collapsedachusetts-existing-home-sales.h ...truncated...
Info/Broken?: http://www.bostonbubble.com/link_info.php?id=1565

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Brian C
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 2:41 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote
My guess for Feb 08 I guess was a little off.
Quote:
While we can't really use these numbers (sales I followed) to represent the entire state, we can guess that sales will be down about 25-30% below Jan 2008's numbers.

The difference between Jan 2007 and Feb 2007 sales was only -12% so with a expected 25-30% drop in Feb 2008, we should seeing 1389-1488 sales or 38% to 42% drop YOY for Feb 2008.

Rule: a small sample area (and price range) can't represent the projected state-wide numbers. real estate is local...blah..blah blah.

I will attempt to do the same counts for March 2008 and see where we stand.
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spork



Joined: 23 Oct 2007
Posts: 25
PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 3:09 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote
I am still seeing similar sales trends or worse in the towns I am looking at for March also. If March ends up worse or is about the same as Feb in sales-that is roughly a 50% decline in home sales YOY- a 50%+ decline is not unreasonable...

Of course it is not the whole state that I am looking at, but I review many towns/cities. You see a significant sales pick up come march previous years...and once again, more homes close at the end of the month, but I would bet on a horrible March! It looks bad from my perspective as of now.
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Brian C
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 3:14 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote
here are my quick numbers for March

PROPERTY TYPES: Single Family
PRICE RANGE: Up to $475,000
COMMUNITIES: FRAMINGHAM, NATICK, NEEDHAM, WALTHAM, WATERTOWN

TIME FRAME: MARCH 1st to MARCH 21st

2007
SFH: 45

2008
SFH: 39

March 2008 vs March 2007 - 13% drop
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CJ
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 4:15 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote
This sounds right to me. I checked MLS listing very often. It looks like they are not moving at all.
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spork



Joined: 23 Oct 2007
Posts: 25
PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 8:27 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote
Brian C wrote:
here are my quick numbers for March

PROPERTY TYPES: Single Family
PRICE RANGE: Up to $475,000
COMMUNITIES: FRAMINGHAM, NATICK, NEEDHAM, WALTHAM, WATERTOWN

TIME FRAME: MARCH 1st to MARCH 21st

2007
SFH: 45

2008
SFH: 39

March 2008 vs March 2007 - 13% drop


You are looking at only a few towns and have a price cap...these are all issues if you want to project the data out like you alluded to in your first post.

I am only looking at central mass. There might be significant error in our projections due to this not being a representative example of the state as a whole. Also it seems like more than half of the properties close in the last few days of the month.

Unless we had easier access to the data, it seems is too much work to go in and try to track this by yourself (why I don't)-just wait until it is published. All I know is that like I said, if sales are flat compared to Feb 08, March would be around a 50% decline.
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