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Description: Dec 2006 vs 2007 for MA SFH: Warren Group reports nominal price plummet of 10.5%, 23.3% drop in sales; MAR reports nominal price decline of 3.6%, 20.0% drop in sales, states 2007 "was actually pretty good"
URL: http://boston.bizjournals.com/boston/stories/2008/01/28/daily2.html?jst=b_ln_hl
Info/Broken?: http://www.bostonbubble.com/link_info.php?id=1421

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[admin]

Note: the article doesn't appear to include a December 2006 vs December 2007 comparison from The Massachusetts Association of Realtors. It only gives the numbers for 2006 vs 2007 as a whole. The December comparison referred to above can be found at:

http://www.marealtor.com/content/monthly_reports.htm

- admin

[Shoeshine,]

[admin]

In inflation adjusted terms, the December 2007 median was only a whisker above the median for December 2002, as estimated last month. Inflation would account for 17.8% of the nominal increase (they probably got their 23.8% increase from 2002 by comparing with January or the whole year). So there actually isn't much of that 23.8% increase left to eat away, and I wouldn't count on that as a reason to expect more declines. However, the increases in 1999 - 2001 were also very steep, so there is plenty of potential fuel left for the fire from then. If they had used a year earlier than 2002 as their baseline, the nominal gain would have been much higher.

- admin

[JCK]

[admin]

I think Shoeshine was saying that the fact that prices are still up 23.8% over 2002 means that there is plenty of room left for further declines. That's why I posted my response above - you have to account for inflation when looking at that 23.8%. Once you do so, there isn't that much fat left to trim since 2002, but yes, I would go back further for a baseline.

- admin

[JCK]