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Will low inventory off-set seasonal savings for homebuyers?

 
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 228
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2019 8:09 pm GMT    Post subject: Will low inventory off-set seasonal savings for homebuyers? Reply with quote

Moments after asking the question above discovered that CNBC had just aired a story on "where the housing shortage is the worst." Replied to share some stunning / potentially discouraging Boston stats from 1997 to 2005:

http://bit.ly/CNBC_LowInventoryBosRE

Glad to discuss those, a controversial new MLS policy that may make the problem of hidden inventory worse, and the opportunity for seasonal savings over beer this weekend, aka #REonTap. Here's an excerpt from the latest:

+ + +

In the past, nearly 1 in 5 homes offered accepted between Thanksgiving and New Year’s across Massachusetts resulted in homebuyer savings of at least 10% off the original asking price. As the housing market enters it’s traditional “slow-season,” let’s talk about two alternative scenarios this weekend at #REonTap:

1. Will near-record low-interest rates make savings opportunities even greater because of reduced monthly payments (see image above), or

2. Will low inventory of homes for sale and record-low mobility rates offset seasonality denying homebuyers the bargaining power they once enjoyed?

+ + +


Proposed #REonTap topic for discussion over beer (or coffee): Are interest rates above good news or bad news? Will low inventory levels off-set seasonal savings homebuyers have enjoyed by timing the market?

http://bit.ly/Time4RESavings_REonTap

Willing to discuss OnDemand this weekend at Cambridge Common Restaurant. Text 617-661-4046 if you'd like to propose a time or location.

Welcome comments below, on Twitter (use #REonTap so others can follow), or in person.
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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Guest






PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 2:07 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

"In the past, nearly 1 in 5 homes offered accepted between Thanksgiving and New Year’s across Massachusetts resulted in homebuyer savings of at least 10% off the original asking price"

I would like to point out that at any given time, 1 in 5 homes had original listing prices of 20% or more over actual sale prices. If I were a broker and actually sold the house below at the current asking price, I could claim that I saved my buyer hundreds of thousands of dollars, but it would be misleading and I would have screwed them because the house isn't even worth the current asking price.

https://www.redfin.com/MA/Boston/63-Edgemere-Rd-02132/home/85680376

Buying a home in the winter months means that you won't compete with as many buyers and are highly likely to buy something at below summer sale prices. You are highly unlikely to engage in a bidding war.

Happy Holidays everyone!
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 228
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 2:39 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guest,

Sounds like you've done some comp work. Yes, some real estate agents overvalue homes to "win" listings -- that's one of the 10 Hidden Costs of Traditional Housing Hunting. Even so, a claim like this demands cross examination. Can you support this with quantifiable data?

Quote:
I would like to point out that at any given time, 1 in 5 homes had original listing prices of 20% or more over actual sale prices.


If your response is simply to compare asking prices to values assesssed for tax purposes, that'a valid but only up to a point as local property tax policies vary and unlike a Zestimate don't seek to be real-time valuations.

However, what will be unrefutable evidence of a #RETippingPoint, is when properties begin selling under their assessed value. See 33 references to "below assessed value" in @RealEstateCafe's blog dating back to 2005:

http://bit.ly/RECafe_BelowAV

Invite you and others to continue posting signs of #RETippingPoint. Did you see the story in the WSJ this weekend? Hint -- some of use have been waiting for signs of the Great Senior Sell-Off and now the WSJ is writing about it. 20% price reductions ahead. In fact, they're already happening in Manhattan.

Any buyers or sellers want to talk about any of the above, or your own questions over coffee or beer this weekend? Will buy first beer sampler at Cambridge Common Restaurant.

Text #REonTap to 617-661-4046 with your preferred time.

Bill

PS. Wish more readers would be transparent about their identity, at least whether they are a real estate professional or consumer, buyer or seller.
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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