bostonbubble.com Forum Index bostonbubble.com
Boston Bubble - Boston Real Estate Analysis
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

SPONSORED LINKS

Advertise on Boston Bubble
Buyer brokers and motivated
sellers, reach potential buyers.
www.bostonbubble.com

YOUR AD HERE

 
Go to: Boston real estate bubble fact list with references
More Boston Bubble News...
DISCLAIMER: The information provided on this website and in the associated forums comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY, expressed or implied. You assume all risk for your own use of the information provided as the accuracy of the information is in no way guaranteed. As always, cross check information that you would deem useful against multiple, reliable, independent resources. The opinions expressed belong to the individual authors and not necessarily to other parties.

Demographic Shift - A Receipe for Disaster?
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    bostonbubble.com Forum Index -> Greater Boston Real Estate & Beyond
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 10:35 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

You know they say economists who work in the financial institution almost have to be bullish because it is in their companies best interest for them to be that way.

The flip side is that if they are removed from the real world companies they will be the academic out of touch types (which Bernake is often accused of).

I guess I'm pretty down on the whole Kennedy School of Government because they seem to be too academic and they don't seem to produce leaders that are battle tested or have any connectivity to real people or real problems. They ought to send those kids down to a public hearing in Brighton and watch the local politicians work the room. Mitt Romney would be doing better if he could work the room like Mike Huckabee, who was a preacher. Those preachers usually stay after mass and small talk everyone and they are always doing public addresses. Their leaders are almost emblematic of what they are doing over there, complete steamroller gentrification and attack with air superiority though spending. They don't take the time to build bonds one at a time or have to follow through; they go to Harvard for a pedigree so they don't have to get their hands dirty. You get these kids from these schools that feel entitled to be our leaders without taking the time to sit down and solve any problems or get callouses on both sides of their hands you know. The people in the real world who have to operate with modest means are often are the most creative and resourceful and the ones we ought to be listening to. Deval Patrick, from Harvard hasn't done one thing that is creative or resourceful. He promised the moon. The fact that he didn't disclose his disposition on casinos before the election was completely wrong; and I love the study from the guy from Harvard that said that casinos don't have a negative impact on communities. Hey, I've got an idea, how about putting it as one of the centerpieces in Harvard's new Allston Campus? Better yet, knock down Harvard Yard like they want to knock down Alston and put the casino there. Deval is like a little kid that uses the "casino revenues" in ten different ways: fix all our roads and bridges, fix the MBTA, add more local aid, put more cops on the street, etc. etc. etc. If he has no other ideas to fix problems other than casinos he should have said that before the election. I really want to root for Harvard because they are the local Ivy, but I just see too many lightweights that tend to help the predators and not stick up for regular folks.

I think we're in a generation where people are going to have to stay involved and feed good ideas into our government.

My point basically is that Alan Greenspan was an academic and said he had no idea that there would be mass amounts of fraud with subprime lending when he significantly dropped rates to unprecedented levels. He was an academic that was revered and nobody ever asked basic questions; they looked up to him like everyone looks up to Harvard. Well he and Harvard have not produced anything great in a long time and I think our society needs to do a bit more vetting of these highly polished lightweights. I think if people had more confidence in what they know to be fundamentally true (trusted their common sense) and weren't embarassed to ask questions when things don't make sense to them, we wouldn't be run by these pedigree lightweights.

Jeez, when my rants start to sound like William F. Buckley, I know it's time to have some Jack Daniels and listen to Skynard. I'm talking to you like the academics will eat your brain out like aliens.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 10:46 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hunter S. Thompson describes what I'm talking about much better. I'm saying live as far away from the "screwheads" as possible. Live with the "doomed".

Quote:
[Thompson, posing as a reporter for The Washington Post, is alone in an airport restroom when the "Candidate" (Richard Nixon) enters and starts using the urinal.]

Dr. Hunter S. Thompson: Hi sir, it's Harris from the Post. Can I get you anything sir?

Candidate: How's the family Harris?

Dr. Hunter S. Thompson: Oh the family, well that's bad news. The screwheads finally came and took my daughter away. Let me ask you a question sir, what is this country doing for the doomed? There are two kinds of people in this country, the doomed and the screwheads. Savage tribal thugs who live off their legal incomes, brow deep out there; no respect for human dignity. They don't know what you and I understand, you know what I mean.

Candidate: You ever play football, Harris?

Dr. Hunter S. Thompson: Yes sir, thank you sir. I played in college, and they're gonna get your daughter too sir. I've heard their rallies, they like Julie but Tricia... and they really hate you sir. You know that one and a half of the State Senate of Utah are screwheads. You know I was never really frightened by the bopheads and the potheads with their silliness never really frightened me either, but these goddam screwheads, they terrify me. And the poor doomed, the young, and the silly, the honest, the weak, the Italians ... they're doomed, they're lost, they're helpless, they're somebody else's meal, they're like pigs in the wilderness.

Candidate: Come here Harris, come here. Fuck the doomed!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Boston ITer
Guest





PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 10:58 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well essentially, what ivy schools do is produce bankers and management consultants. There's no authentic product there besides elitism which is why I don't place Yale/New Haven on my college town "retirement retreat" list because you have basically, cloistered elitists living next to a de-gentrified slum. In effect, once retailers leave Harvard Sq, the same thing may happen around here.

On the other shoe, the elitists of Madison WI will attend the Kennedy school or Gtown FS in the future so why worry about 'em when they're simply doing a low cost college in a place, not too far from mom and dad. The majority of the attendants at UW are middle classers who need a college education to find work in an office or are interested in getting a basic postHS education.

Realize, the caste system is in effect nowadays where the Goldmans recruit from the Ivies (ala Wharton Business) but not places like Madison for fear of leveling the playing field. So in effect, you see the type of inbred thinking and banana republic type of politicking among leaders because that's essentially their original breeding ground.
Back to top
Guest






PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 3:44 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Realize, the caste system is in effect nowadays where the Goldmans recruit from the Ivies (ala Wharton Business) but not places like Madison for fear of leveling the playing field.


This is nearly 100% on the mark. Places like Goldman Sachs resist hiring graduates from CUNY and pretty much exclusively hire from Columbia Univ in the NY metro area with the exception of a few mathematicians from NYU.

This whole notion of having merit as a way of getting into a high caliber career is fading away. When we were growing up, the 'A' student, from a middle class background, attended post-graduate Harvard or Columbia Law and got a great job in the city with a chance for partnership in eight years. Today, those same exact kids are spinning their wheels making the investment banking overlords happy with the hope of getting a sliver of their bonuses. Oh yes, these kids get a $120K-$160K/yr income but they work 90 hrs/wk for them and many are burnt out by year number six on the field. By then, the bankers have cashed out with $10-20+ million in the drawer.
Back to top
john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 4:32 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I never, ever got this whole financial or academic branding thing. I mean you research and pick winners in the market. What do you need a brand name on your back to do that?

I think you get certain kids who need to be stroked and they need to fall into a track or program. They are more concerned with getting a promotion or validation than to get money. If they were true hunters they would be independent and focused on the money and not be the weenie types that brag about how many billions of dollars their company has under management.

If you look at any equities chart and look at the overlapping Dow, Nasdaq, or whatever index, they follow the same course for the most part. There are much fewer geniuses than people think.

Hey Boston IT'er check out Vergennes, Vermont; very cool...
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
admin
Site Admin


Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 4:59 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

john p wrote:
I never, ever got this whole financial or academic branding thing. I mean you research and pick winners in the market. What do you need a brand name on your back to do that?


Because:

john p wrote:

There are much fewer geniuses than people think.


They aren't selling performance, they are selling a perceived peace of mind that you tried your best by going with the best. It is extremely hard (others would say impossible) to beat the market consistently over the long term, and so if you want any shot at doing so, you had better not take any chances that you are working with anything less than the absolute best. The problem is, you only know who is the best in retrospect, and so the reputation of their school gets used as a proxy. It's a lousy way to do it, but if the companies doing the hiring know that their chances of beating the market are slim to none regardless of who they hire, I think they will opt to hire those who provide the most recognizable credentials as they offer the best "we tried our best" defense. It is unlikely that they will be outshone by others who hire based on ability since ability rarely beats the market, so they opt to cover their behinds. (This isn't to say that those from the ivies lack ability, just that the best go to other schools as well.)

- admin
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Boston ITer
Guest





PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 5:05 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
check out Vergennes, Vermont; very cool.


Yeah, that Champlain region is gorgeous. The next time I'm in Burlington or Stowe, I'll check it out. I think you get what I'm talking about because one spouse can work at UVm while the other combs the nation for high paying white collar work. And judging from what I've seen, there isn't this Oxbridge snobbery up there, the town and gown are friendly and interdependent.

As for the whole banking and management consulting scam, well... it's what you'd imagine, a den of cronies who pass projects to one another and they tend to stick to organizations like the Yale Club to exchange information. All and all, the branding is about connections and separating oneself from the outsiders. In effect, a successful quant trader or program director from an outside school, like let's say UConn, would have been making it on his own for ages before let's say making contact with someone at Salomon Bros to help him take his software project a/o firm public. And then what the cronies do is market among themselves, these private deals for the public offering down the road or for the global private equity markets, another insiders club involving now London Universities, Dubai oilmen, Shanghai Triads, etc.
Back to top
Boston ITer
Guest





PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 5:12 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
They aren't selling performance, they are selling a perceived peace of mind that you tried your best by going with the best.


That was the mindset of the '60s to the '90s. Today, it's about having access and keeping the clubhouses, exclusive. Many participants, in banking, are only a step or two away from being a car salesmen, in talent and mentality, and even the so-called great mathematicians/engineers there are propping up Brownian motion theories which most actual money making prop traders can tell you don't work in hedging trading risks esp when the typical programs do the same thing. These are behavior patterns widely prevalent in banana republics which is why I don't expect Wall Street to save our nation's technological future.
Back to top
admin
Site Admin


Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 5:45 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boston ITer wrote:
These are behavior patterns widely prevalent in banana republics which is why I don't expect Wall Street to save our nation's technological future.


Even without rampant cronyism, I wouldn't expect Wall Street to save anything. Stocks are rather richly priced right now, and I don't see much potential for an upside. Much of their historical rise comes from the extended bull market which started in the early 80's and which also corresponded with falling inflation and falling interest rates. Falling rates caused asset prices to rise as other investments became relatively less attractive. I don't think there is much room for rates to fall further without spawning inflation, and in fact I expect there to be upward pressure on rates at some point once China et al decide to stop subsidizing the dollar, so I would expect the process which made stock prices rise faster than normal to kick into reverse and start to impede their natural growth, at some point in the not too distant future. Given that stocks have typically only returned 1.6% above inflation, with much of that being due to the recent bull market, I wouldn't count on Wall Street to rescue anything, even allowing for competence. (At the risk of veering too far off topic, I Bonds are returning 1.2% above inflation right now, which looks pretty good in comparison to the Dow, though the US Treasury is very curiously lowering the maximum yearly purchase from $60K to $10K at the end of the month. Are they preparing for inflation?)

- admin
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
JCK



Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 559

PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 6:11 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boston ITer wrote:
[
As for the whole banking and management consulting scam, well... it's what you'd imagine, a den of cronies who pass projects to one another and they tend to stick to organizations like the Yale Club to exchange information.


But who cares? It only matters if you want to be part of that world, and, frankly, the whole B-school/Management consulting gig seems pretty pointless to me. It's not like McKinsey is running the world from a secret office, so none of this causes me any lost sleep.

In any case, with respect to technological innovation, it's not the big Wall Street Firms or the consulting firms that are funding or controlling innovation; it's the U.S. government, who funds the university level research (where, frankly, some great stuff is happening); and the venture capitalists, who fund the early stage companies.

Ironically, the same universities that produce the crony networks you're complaining about are also doing some of the best research as well. So it's not all bad.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Boston ITer
Guest





PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 6:13 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

True, the current phenomena, from a critical mass effect, is a result of the ongoing bull market since '82.

My concern about the Street is that they're the gatekeepers of both, up and coming companies as well as how traditional companies, breakup and divest their holdings onto other companies in addition to traditional and non-traditional (i.e. derivatives) investment vehicles. And since there's so much cronyism within investment banking, private equity, and management consulting, we have wildly overvalued and undervalued companies/divisions and investment pools out there. It's a charade of round robin pump 'n dumps as well as keeping players out of the bidding. And what do many of these fellows have in common? Many are ivy leaguers with parental resources and have met through various clubs and associations and what they do is control the financial resources of the nation. Originally, I used to think that they were smart people who made it on their own merit et al (ok, perhaps their parents got them their first car/apartment) but over the years and various projects, meetings with execs, etc, I've found that it's basically a charade and that there's little real merit at the core.
Back to top
JCK



Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 559

PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 6:15 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

admin wrote:
john p wrote:
I never, ever got this whole financial or academic branding thing. I mean you research and pick winners in the market. What do you need a brand name on your back to do that?


Because:

john p wrote:

There are much fewer geniuses than people think.


They aren't selling performance, they are selling a perceived peace of mind that you tried your best by going with the best. It is extremely hard (others would say impossible) to beat the market consistently over the long term, and so if you want any shot at doing so, you had better not take any chances that you are working with anything less than the absolute best. The problem is, you only know who is the best in retrospect, and so the reputation of their school gets used as a proxy. It's a lousy way to do it, but if the companies doing the hiring know that their chances of beating the market are slim to none regardless of who they hire, I think they will opt to hire those who provide the most recognizable credentials as they offer the best "we tried our best" defense. It is unlikely that they will be outshone by others who hire based on ability since ability rarely beats the market, so they opt to cover their behinds. (This isn't to say that those from the ivies lack ability, just that the best go to other schools as well.)

- admin


Yeah, it's more about risk management. There are great people everywhere and idiots who go to top schools, but both the floor (i.e., the lowest level people) and average levels are higher at the elite universities.

And firms (and the client companies who are paying top dollar) for professional services like the "security" of knowing they have a Yale/Harvard/<insert prestigious school here> graduate.

Of course, taking this approach creates the clubby atmosphere described, which is certainly a problem in and of itself..
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Boston ITer
Guest





PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 6:18 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
it's the U.S. government, who funds the university level research (where, frankly, some great stuff is happening)


Well, the 60s-to-90s are over. You'll see less and less great work and more and more fluff papers in the years ahead. You can't use the American century govt/univ/nasa saga from 1945 till 2000 and say that it's a permafrost on our society. Today, the idea of market-directed research is becoming the main group think and the Richard Feynmans are disappearing into the wilderness.
Back to top
Boston ITer
Guest





PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 6:22 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

JCK, you might want to stop hanging out with engineers and start hanging out with bankers and executives if you're still idealistic about a meritocratic society. It's change your perspective on things.
Back to top
john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 7:07 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I get that some of these top universities are cranking out great research, I just see that there are lots of bad practice that cruises with the Veritas Flag.

I am most critical of the engineering and political sides of the Ivies. I have total respect for their math and medical and even law to some degree. In engineering you need to get your hands dirty. In politics you need to really get out there and meet people and sincerely listen to them, not have a listending tour and then do whatever you want regardless. A doctor doesn't brag about how many patients he or she can see in a day, because at a certain point one begins to wonder if they are spread too thin. Because most Ivies want it all, and don't want to be anchored in the grind and rather hover in the clouds, they actually shortchange themselves. Because they want to live among other elites and not with the "doomed" they never learn the basic common sense that makes things happen in the world or at least how to create and work the toolkit that the majority of people can access.

Henry Ford, Einstein, Edison, Marconi, Franklin all got their hands dirty. If people worked with their hands, they could think with their hands and that would add another dimension to their study.

I look at the Ivies like a natural resource which needs to be cultivated properly and I don't like to hear stories that kids aren't getting proper guidance or have teacher's assistants and professors that aren't dialed into teaching etc. When I talk to Harvard students I often hear that they are asked to work on a thesis topic that has really never been addressed. I don't understand why that is a requirement. It is like they need to dive into an obscure subject or perspective that puts a completely talented resource on a bizzare tanget.

I just think that if I were managing that kind of brainpower, I'd focus some of it on curing the common cold, cancer, creating a better democracy etc. You wouldn't see politicians saying that the only viable economic solution for one of the most advanced State's in the Union is casinos.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    bostonbubble.com Forum Index -> Greater Boston Real Estate & Beyond All times are GMT
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next
Page 2 of 3

 
Jump to:  
You can post new topics in this forum
You can reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Forum posts are owned by the original posters.
Forum boards are Copyright 2005 - present, bostonbubble.com.
Privacy policy in effect.
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group