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admin
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Joined: 14 Jul 2005
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Location: Greater Boston
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 Posted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:27 am GMT Post subject: |
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| mpr wrote: |
A conservative *was* in office when "it" hit and the bank bailout was well underway before Obama assumed office.
You have absorbed the conservative meme that "it" happened under Obama. RealEstateGuy will probably now post some links showing that it actually did ! |
Oops, you're right. I don't normally absorb conservative memes, I think I was just remembering 2008 as both when it happened and also when Obama was elected. My mistake was that Obama took office in 2009. In my defense, this was a decade ago and I didn't see much economic distinction between the parties then.
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Real Estate Guy
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| Posted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:10 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Yes, but All the QE's were done on Obama's watch. It wasn't the Fed's appropriate decision to lower the fed fund rate that destroyed our country, it was increasing the balance sheet from 800 billion to 4.5 trillion without any approval needed, by bailing out the banks and manipulating the long term interest rates further. All which didn't work anyway. All we have now is bloated assets unsubstantiated by any real growth. GDP is anemic(unless you count all the corporations buying they're own stock back"at low rates" financing to artificially boost the earnings per share). As these companies reduce the number of shares outstanding, of course the PE's look better than they are. And even still PE's are still 20 times earnings!! What's the next round of bullshit government will throw at the market to distort the fact that there is no "real" growth in earnings? How about a tax cut?? Yup, that will decrease corp expenses and make the earning once again look better than they are because they are not based on true economic growth. Here's where Trump is smarter than all you Libs: Once they pass a tax plan, Trump worded a one time tax break for all corporations to bring cash back into the US(repatriation). He is tapping a 5 trillion dollar market here. When those corps bring in all that cash and "use it as required to repatriate)" for capital investment or further stock buy backs or whatever they choose, they will be liquidating billions in T bills. Corps hold most cash in T bills for better cash yields. They will be liquidated for use. Trump beats the Fucking Fed at their own game. My math estimates this has the potential to add 100 basis points to the long term rates for every 1.5 trillion liquidated. Check my math Einstein. This happens instantly, which is GREAT to normalize the rates sooner than later and NOTHING the FED can do. Combine that with Yellen out the door, and Trump putting int more Hawks(Read up on Warsh or Taylor) and "poof" there goes the bubble......if it hasn't gone already. I'm seeing a lot of price reductions and BOM's around Eastern Mass. Oh No, What will all the idiots who bought ion 2016 and 2017 do?? Keep paying your mortgage payments on real estate not worth the note. Have fun.
Now let's try being truly American and push to have Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen charged with Treason and fully prosecuted for robbing America's wealth from generations of true Americans that earned it. They are Filthy scum.
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Guest
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| Posted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:01 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Real Estate Guy wrote: | Yes, but All the QE's were done on Obama's watch. It wasn't the Fed's appropriate decision to lower the fed fund rate that destroyed our country, it was increasing the balance sheet from 800 billion to 4.5 trillion without any approval needed, by bailing out the banks and manipulating the long term interest rates further. All which didn't work anyway. All we have now is bloated assets unsubstantiated by any real growth. GDP is anemic(unless you count all the corporations buying they're own stock back"at low rates" financing to artificially boost the earnings per share). As these companies reduce the number of shares outstanding, of course the PE's look better than they are. And even still PE's are still 20 times earnings!! What's the next round of bullshit government will throw at the market to distort the fact that there is no "real" growth in earnings? How about a tax cut?? Yup, that will decrease corp expenses and make the earning once again look better than they are because they are not based on true economic growth. Here's where Trump is smarter than all you Libs: Once they pass a tax plan, Trump worded a one time tax break for all corporations to bring cash back into the US(repatriation). He is tapping a 5 trillion dollar market here. When those corps bring in all that cash and "use it as required to repatriate)" for capital investment or further stock buy backs or whatever they choose, they will be liquidating billions in T bills. Corps hold most cash in T bills for better cash yields. They will be liquidated for use. Trump beats the Fucking Fed at their own game. My math estimates this has the potential to add 100 basis points to the long term rates for every 1.5 trillion liquidated. Check my math Einstein. This happens instantly, which is GREAT to normalize the rates sooner than later and NOTHING the FED can do. Combine that with Yellen out the door, and Trump putting int more Hawks(Read up on Warsh or Taylor) and "poof" there goes the bubble......if it hasn't gone already. I'm seeing a lot of price reductions and BOM's around Eastern Mass. Oh No, What will all the idiots who bought ion 2016 and 2017 do?? Keep paying your mortgage payments on real estate not worth the note. Have fun.
Now let's try being truly American and push to have Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen charged with Treason and fully prosecuted for robbing America's wealth from generations of true Americans that earned it. They are Filthy scum.
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Trump won because of deranged angry white males like you. |
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Real Estate Guy
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| Posted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 2:09 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | rump won because of deranged angry white males like you. |
Oh please. Other than the deranged part, this is the closest thing you've ever said to being correct. What's insane are the American citizens either too stupid to see what's been going on, or worse still, those who know but prefer to do nothing about it. Wait......you are an American citizen, right? |
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Real Estate Guy
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Guest
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| Posted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:05 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Yes, but All the QE's were done on Obama's watch. It wasn't the Fed's appropriate decision to lower the fed fund rate that destroyed our country, it was increasing the balance sheet from 800 billion to 4.5 trillion without any approval needed, by bailing out the banks and manipulating the long term interest rates further. All which didn't work anyway. All we have now is bloated assets unsubstantiated by any real growth. GDP is anemic(unless you count all the corporations buying they're own stock back"at low rates" financing to artificially boost the earnings per share). As these companies reduce the number of shares outstanding, of course the PE's look better than they are. And even still PE's are still 20 times earnings!! What's the next round of bullshit government will throw at the market to distort the fact that there is no "real" growth in earnings? How about a tax cut?? Yup, that will decrease corp expenses and make the earning once again look better than they are because they are not based on true economic growth. Here's where Trump is smarter than all you Libs: Once they pass a tax plan, Trump worded a one time tax break for all corporations to bring cash back into the US(repatriation). He is tapping a 5 trillion dollar market here. When those corps bring in all that cash and "use it as required to repatriate)" for capital investment or further stock buy backs or whatever they choose, they will be liquidating billions in T bills. Corps hold most cash in T bills for better cash yields. They will be liquidated for use. Trump beats the Fucking Fed at their own game. My math estimates this has the potential to add 100 basis points to the long term rates for every 1.5 trillion liquidated. Check my math Einstein. This happens instantly, which is GREAT to normalize the rates sooner than later and NOTHING the FED can do. Combine that with Yellen out the door, and Trump putting int more Hawks(Read up on Warsh or Taylor) and "poof" there goes the bubble......if it hasn't gone already. I'm seeing a lot of price reductions and BOM's around Eastern Mass. Oh No, What will all the idiots who bought ion 2016 and 2017 do?? Keep paying your mortgage payments on real estate not worth the note. Have fun.
Now let's try being truly American and push to have Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen charged with Treason and fully prosecuted for robbing America's wealth from generations of true Americans that earned it. They are Filthy scum. |
Real estate guy, I disagree with your blame on Obama. I think the true cause of financial crisis 2008 directly related to a idiot who got manipulated by a DICK, to get into a war that blow away all surplus of the country. Then the idiot also got manipulated by the FED to tab on the real estate market to jack up economy. Obama inherit the issue, he didn't caused the issue from the first place. And from my point of view, his 8 years in managing the country, actually soften the result of economic crisis A LOT.
Yes, Obama allows QE 1,2,3 happened in his term, but unless there was other brilliant plan that can save the country from getting into a great depression, this is what any president could have done the best.
Most of Americans can not survive without a job and any income source for longer than 6 months. And QE 1,2,3 it is trying to keep the economy at float, so people will be able to have jobs again.
Now don't get me wrong, I hate QE as much as you hate it. I totally hate that my saving at the bank de-valuate, while the irresponsible get the bail out. I totally hate how my income is flat, which every necessity's cost in life go way up. But I would hate that idiot with the W on this name, rather than blame anyone who has to deal with the after math.
The national debt is a can being kick down the road, by Obama, and I think will be by Trump as well. I don't believed Trump can revert it, as everyone know whoever jack up the rate quick will kill the housing market, so goes the stock market and the economy.
Let's wait and see how Trump makes my saving interest rate great again. |
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Real Estate Guy
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| Posted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 6:14 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Real estate guy, I disagree with your blame on Obama. I think the true cause of financial crisis 2008 directly related to a idiot who got manipulated by a DICK, to get into a war that blow away all surplus of the country. Then the idiot also got manipulated by the FED to tab on the real estate market to jack up economy. Obama inherit the issue, he didn't caused the issue from the first place. And from my point of view, his 8 years in managing the country, actually soften the result of economic crisis A LOT.
Yes, Obama allows QE 1,2,3 happened in his term, but unless there was other brilliant plan that can save the country from getting into a great depression, this is what any president could have done the best.
Most of Americans can not survive without a job and any income source for longer than 6 months. And QE 1,2,3 it is trying to keep the economy at float, so people will be able to have jobs again.
Now don't get me wrong, I hate QE as much as you hate it. I totally hate that my saving at the bank de-valuate, while the irresponsible get the bail out. I totally hate how my income is flat, which every necessity's cost in life go way up. But I would hate that idiot with the W on this name, rather than blame anyone who has to deal with the after math.
The national debt is a can being kick down the road, by Obama, and I think will be by Trump as well. I don't believed Trump can revert it, as everyone know whoever jack up the rate quick will kill the housing market, so goes the stock market and the economy.
Let's wait and see how Trump makes my saving interest rate great again. |
Hi Guest. I understand you argument. In my heart of hearts I do not blame Obama or Bush, and certainly not Trump for this mess. Clearly my disdain is for the Federal Reserve. They are not accountable to any form of government, and I believe for this reason they are literally more powerful than than all the politicians including the President. They own most of them. Research any "abolish the Fed" bills and you will see the Senate divide and the lobbyist control. The QE's were pure theft, plain and simple. The decision to quadruple our debt to stimulate financial market and pay out banks should never have been allowed without the Americans voting for such a significant sell out of our wealth. Make no mistake about it, America may go down over this, and if not it will suffer for decades at best. I understand that Americans need to work. I understand the need for some type of central bank. However the only way the American people would have understood the severity of this decision would have been to let the depression happen. It's happening anyway. Americans standard of living is and will continue to go down as the dollar devalues. We are broke. True capitalism is severely damaged, if not destroyed by this QE decision. As I said, I also believe it is Private Wealth pulling the strings at the Fed Reserve, and they got bailed out at the cost of American Wealth and strength. Americans should be appalled. They should rise up against the Fed. Look at other economies that have failed. Observe the similarities. Research BRICS new currency and Central Bank. Russia and China were smart enough the kick the Rothschild and/or foreign usury control to the curb. Russia(the former Soviet Union) was destroyed by the same Central Bank economic warfare. More disturbing than all this, is that most Americans are clueless. A few laugh and joke as seen on this thread, but the cruel irony is that the jokes on them, and more unfortunately us.
As far as your interest rate, count on it going up over the next 2 years. With any luck Trump's economic policies and tax cuts will soften the blow to the job market and stocks. If he can get GDP up to 4%-5% it will offset some correction. If not, buckle up. Real Estate however won't be as fortunate. Although good job/wage growth would help if we get it, Job growth alone will not offset the sharper jump in yields set to come. And ultimately, even if Trump navigates us off Bubble Island, we will spend years/decades trying to reduce the deficit to prudent levels...that is if the Liberals(this is where I do get political), don't get back in office and continue to over spend while we're in such a mess. You'd think if they were at all patriotic or caring about this country they would see now is not the time for entitlements until we get strong again.....if we can. |
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Real Estate Guy
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mpr
Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 344
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| Posted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:59 am GMT Post subject: |
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| RealEstateGuy: Why are you so against QE ? Spell it out for me. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 12:40 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | I understand you argument. In my heart of hearts I do not blame Obama or Bush, and certainly not Trump for this mess. Clearly my disdain is for the Federal Reserve. They are not accountable to any form of government, and I believe for this reason they are literally more powerful than than all the politicians including the President. |
real estate guy, I disagree again with your argument that only the FED is the bad guys here. Either FED and Presidency, they all hijacked by the economy. Whenever the economy goes down, both entities will be expected to come up with solution to bring it back up.
US economy went down after tech bubble burst and 911, I supported that we go into afghanistan, give whoever produced 911 an eye for an eye. Then we should focus on dealing with bring back up the economy.
BUT, the idiot got pump up by a DICK, tried to get another quick win for his own cowboy glory, got the whole country sucked into another war that we could not get out, and we could not afford. In order to finance the war we took on debt. In order to bring back up the economy quickly, the FED showed the idiot of the master plan of "using your own house as ATM", and we all know what happened after.
| Quote: | | I understand the need for some type of central bank. However the only way the American people would have understood the severity of this decision would have been to let the depression happen. |
The truth is ugly. no one would like to see "the shit hits the fan" on his term.
If there was no true solution to the problem, the best way to deal with it is, kicking the CAN down the road. |
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Real Estate Guy
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| Posted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:10 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
RealEstateGuy: Why are you so against QE ? Spell it out for me. |
Hi MPR. A review of this thread should shed ample light on my position about it. Let me first ask you why you aren't? Explain to me why you support it and I'd be happy to elaborate. |
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Real Estate Guy
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| Posted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:34 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Quote: | The truth is ugly. no one would like to see "the shit hits the fan" on his term.
If there was no true solution to the problem, the best way to deal with it is, kicking the CAN down the road |
Hi Guest. I agree the wars have cost our country a lot. However I'm not sure you fully understand the magnitude of QE's on this country. The elite banks(Morgan, Sachs, etc) knowingly packaged bad loans and created an avenue to trade these as commodities. They knowingly sold them to Fannie and Freddie. Basically, they corruptly created and sold them to the US Government knowing they were bad loans and real estate was a bubble created by Greenspan. QE was the Fed(private bank) printing "our US currency" to free up the financial freeze after these same crooked banks refused to lend and flow money in the markets. The Fed Bank increased our debt from 7 trillion to over 20 trillion!!! This wasn't for war funding, or entitlements, it was to buy up all the "bad loans" from these samples so Americans could borrow again. The Fed Bank made sure their money was protected and taken and replaced with printed money, bad loans(MBS's) and now 20 trillion in debt. Assailed treasonous Bernanke, made a unilateral decision to indent our country with no need to request a vote from Congress, The house, The President or us citizens. How Absurd is it that this is happening and no one really gets it? Bernanke rolled the dice that this stupid scheme would put Americans back to work and once GDP got back to 5%, the big old US economy would eventually pull itself out of debt after like 10 years. WELL THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN. Einstein over looked what happens when you zap free markets with fake free money. Bullshit, that's what happens. No real growth. Tons of mal investment, then no investment as bubbles form, then the currency devaluates, then the bubbles pop. You mention you feel it's good to kick the can down the road. Was it worth it for 10 years to sacrifice the dollar? Our US strength and might? What did we get? Low paying jobs. Two incomes needed in most cases. Americans up to their eye balls in debt? No investment opportunities in capital markets. Absolutely disgusting. All of this instead of allowing free markets to correct in 2008? Now we will correct much worse. We are out of road. |
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mpr
Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 344
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| Posted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 8:11 pm GMT Post subject: |
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RealEstateGuy. I think you might be confused about what QE is. Don't confuse QE with the Fed's earlier programs to stabilize the banking sector. Those are indeed more controversial, but QE was about buying Treasuries and MBS to drive down long term interest rates.
It didn't "increase the debt". Strictly speaking it didn't have any impact on the "debt" which is a liability of the treasury. It did change the Fed's balance sheet, increasing both their liabilities (the cash created to do QE) and their assets (the assets purchased).
As, I said not sure what you find objectionable about QE. Unless you give me more info, all I can see is that you're upset about not getting a sufficient risk free return for your savings. Is that it ? |
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Real Estate Guy
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| Posted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:25 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Quote: | PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 8:11 pm GMT Post subject: Reply with quote
RealEstateGuy. I think you might be confused about what QE is. Don't confuse QE with the Fed's earlier programs to stabilize the banking sector. Those are indeed more controversial, but QE was about buying Treasuries and MBS to drive down long term interest rates.
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MPR. Yes, I understand there is no direct correlation on QE to our national debt. However the correlation is imbedded in that when the Fed prints money out of thin air to fund deficits we can't pay back(I believe our current deficit is 105% of GDP) they can/do devalue currency. By printing endless money(after we were taken off the gold standard), the dollar gets weak and inflation ensues. I believe inflation is much higher in real terms than the Fed discusses and they play with statistics to justify the absurdity.
QE(buying our own treasuries) and buying MBS yes are different, but I lump them together because they both do the same by artificially suppressing long term rates(mortgages). As a free market entrepreneur, I despise this. It distorts markets such that a business person no longer can rely prudent research about companies or markets, but rather make decisions based on what "the fed" will do. This is not freedom, it's called being controlled. The reason I hate it is that it creates bubbles. We have massive bubbles. Like I said, first this easy low rate money creates excessive mal investment because of manipulated cheap money. Then as investors realize things are too expensive(now), lack of investment occurs. Eventually we have a pop and many get hurt. Also, of course, we have interest rates on safe investments paying 1%(less than inflation) thus forcing investors scrambling for any investment(riskier) for yield. As an American, I do not want to invest based on what I think "the fed" might do every second. They have grossly distorted markets. Although 2007 was severe and I actually could agree on lowering the funds rate and possibly short term QE, ten years is ridiculous. All they've done is caused low yields and robot investors that foam at the mouth at their every word because the US economy is pretty much sole in their hands. This is not how America should be.
Lastly, I would add the risk of significant inflation and/or a spike in rates as they try to unwind this massive mess. In short, buy printing money to increase our budget/budget deficit we now have a budget our GDP can't even pay the interest on. GDP has not increased with this academic experiment so now what happens. My question to you is: What happens as rates rise and our debt is 20+trillion is still in deficit. It is possible GDP doesn't rise, yes? What happens the the value of our dollar if the "unwinding" causes crashes or corrections? Do you not think the floor will fall out of the dollar if the Fed starts another round of QE?
Free markets are just that: "Free". This is government controlled, and as is the case with any thing government touches, it fails. |
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mpr
Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 344
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| Posted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 1:00 am GMT Post subject: |
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RealEstateGuy: A lot to unpack there. Yes, QE and lower interest rates in general tend to reduce the value of the dollar, but why is this a bad thing ? (Hint: Better formulation of the question: For whom is this a bad thing ?) Your claim about inflation isn't supported by independent measures of inflation like the billion prices project which tracks CPI pretty well.
http://www.thebillionpricesproject.com/datasets/
I don't think your conception of QE 'artificially suppressing' rates is coherent. Artificially compared to what ? The Fed always sets sort rates, and an important (arguably the most important) input into long rates is the expected path of short rates: If I have a crystal ball which tells me short rates going forward and long rates aren't consistent with that, I can make an arbitrarily large amount of money by arbitrage. Here long rates means 'risk free' treasury rates. Rates for other borrowers are set off the risk free rate by adding a risk premium. So the whole system is always going off what the Fed will do. You can call it free or not free - its a government managed market in a government issued currency.
Unwinding QE is a deflationary exercise and will not cause inflation. Neither will it cause a spike in rates since these are set by arbitrage with the expected short rate.
Your point that QE and more generally Fed intervention to combat recent recessions has caused bubbles and malinvestment is arguably correct, but this is a symptom of a deeper problem in our system: an unsustainable distribution of financial claims (aka inequality). This is not a problem which is easily addressed with monetary policy. It requires fiscal and social policy changes. Absent these, the Fed is left to muddle along doing QE and blowing bubbles. |
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