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Mortgage mess cost: $3B - Study sees big '08 hit to Boston-a

 
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news



Joined: 14 Jul 2007
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Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2007 1:39 pm GMT    Post subject: Mortgage mess cost: $3B - Study sees big '08 hit to Boston-a Reply with quote

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Description: Mortgage mess cost: $3B - Study sees big '08 hit to Boston-area economy, putting it in the top 10 metro areas likely to be hardest hit
URL: http://news.bostonherald.com/business/general/view.bg?articleid=1048425
Info/Broken?: http://www.bostonbubble.com/link_info.php?id=1299

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JCK



Joined: 15 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2007 2:17 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great; more brain-dead reporting. The Boston Metro is a top 10 market, of course it's going to be harder hit in absolute dollars than, say, Harrisburg PA. NYC is number one; does that mean NYC is going to be hit harder than anywhere else? Somehow, I doubt it.

I'd like to see a per capita figure, rather than the "per metro area" figure, which is pretty meaningless...
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2007 2:24 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

JCK wrote:
Great; more brain-dead reporting. The Boston Metro is a top 10 market, of course it's going to be harder hit in absolute dollars than, say, Harrisburg PA. NYC is number one; does that mean NYC is going to be hit harder than anywhere else? Somehow, I doubt it.

I'd like to see a per capita figure, rather than the "per metro area" figure, which is pretty meaningless...


I had the same thought, although it isn't clear from the article that they didn't take size into account. The other thing that I wonder is how much of that $3B is just the removal of excess that shouldn't have been there in the first place as opposed to a decline from a sustainable level? I expect that the loss is relative to the boom years, which had some unsustainable inputs.

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JCK



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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2007 9:26 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

If they did take population into account, that's almost worse, because there's no direct indication of them doing so.

I was wondering the same thing re the $3B number; is it $3B off a "normal" growth-rate baseline, or it is $3B less than would be if the bubble were still inflating?

Again it's big, scary-sounding numbers, but for the life of me, I can't tell you what the numbers mean.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2007 11:07 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

JCK wrote:

Again it's big, scary-sounding numbers, but for the life of me, I can't tell you what the numbers mean.


At least you recognize that you don't know. That puts you way ahead of most people.

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