bostonbubble.com

[RealEstateCafe]

Excerpts from Curbed Boston article:
http://bit.ly/REFallTrending

Three mega-trends unfolding in Boston -- do they signal the beginning of the end of the overheated housing market?

1. More Incentives for Luxury Tenants
The region's luxury apartment market is finally turning definitively in favor of tenants.

2. Condo Price-Chops Becoming the Norm
Once upon a time, every condo on the Boston, Cambridge and Somerville sales markets in particular went for at least its asking price if not way, way over. That has started to change.

3. A Universal Truce in Bidding Wars
With the cooling of the Boston-area sales market and the real possibility that mortgage rates will creep steadily up from their historic lows, we may see the area's last major bidding wars for a while.

Significantly, this negative press is unfolding ten weeks ahead of this headline last year in the Boston Globe:

A very strange housing recovery in Mass.
http://bit.ly/iCoveryMA

What's your take? Glad you didn't rush into a bidding war this past Spring, or if you have a home to buy before you can sell, do you fear that you've missed the peak of the market?

Want to meet up offline for a Bubble Hour?
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe

[RealEstateCafe]

Not sure how to use the img tag here, so posting Tweet showing MA as one of only two states where prices fell last month:

https://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe/status/641643620039327744

Retweets invited, as well as anecdotes or data about what's happening to prices, in bidding wars or open houses your experiencing.

Don't expect the Boston Globe to take the lead reporting this trend as they recently asked if Bidding Wars were here to stay, and megabroker Coldwell Banker was quick to share the story. Here's our response:

https://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe/status/639129283311628289
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe

[admin]

[RealEstateCafe]

Just posted the invitation below to meet offline to discuss / debate trends in the housing market on Curbed Boston after one reader argued that simple laws of supply and demand will continue to drive the local housing market. Curiously, one of @CurbedBoston headlines (and the Boston Globe, too) is making his point, but probably not in the direction he was arguing:

Boston Glutpocalypse! Broker, Landlord Panic Grips Luxury End
http://bit.ly/BOSLuxREGlut

+ + +

BostonBubble Admin: Got favorite collaborative scheduling app you'd like readers to use select a Bubble Hour meeting date?

I can make a first pass using:
https://emble.io

+ + +

CROSS-POST Comment on
7 Things to Watch For in Greater Boston Real Estate This Fall
http://bit.ly/REFallTrending

PS. Guest #4 / Professor Supply & Demand, Glad to meet offline, too. Seriously, I'll buy the first beer -- and in the spirit of the book, Thank You for Arguing, we can look at some of the artificial demand behind the iCovery:

http://bit.ly/Thnks4Arguing

Just let Curbed Boston readers know what works for you, and if you'd like to some "ordinary people" who are being priced out of Boston / burned by bidding wars to join us, please cross-post some convenient locations on this thread on Boston Bubble:

http://bit.ly/RETrendingDown

And on the Globe recent story:

http://bit.ly/MiddleIncBOS
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe

[bsg61]

I could not find the invite but would be happy to attend such a discussion!

[RealEstateCafe]

No meeting planned yet, but Boston Globe story today inspired this blog post:
http://bit.ly/OutBidvsFallOut[/img]
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe

[RealEstateCafe]

http://bit.ly/OutBidvsFallOut
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe

[bsg61]

http://www.bostonglobe.com/magazine/2015/10/31/buying-home-around-boston-worth-anymore/S2iExOEiEEbXZwejYvPcCP/story.html#comments

[RealEstateCafe]

Thanks for the heads up. Need to spend more time with the article than I can tonight, but here's what the Globe wrote around this time last year:

A very strange housing recovery in Mass.
http://bit.ly/iCoveryMA
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe

[bsg61]

I read the article once briefly and then the comments. The sense I got was that "things really are different this time". Can prices continue to just go up, up, up and inventory continue to go down, down down?

I did a quick Zillow search of Cambridge rentals between $2500K and up to any price. There are currently 754 properties available for rent in this price range on Zillow. When I checked a month ago, it was around the same figure.

For Boston, there are 4,446 rentals available from $2500 to sky's the limit, and in Brookline, there are 897 in this price range.

Just a casual observation, not sure what it means…

[RealEstateCafe]

Overall, my impression is that article could mark a turning point, even if the Globe did run the sensationalized bidding war horse around the track again, quoting David Bates, one of the leading bidding war spinsters:

http://bit.ly/OverAskBates

I've made a first pass at deconstructing the main points in the article, and wish more background context and future scenarios had been addressed by the author.

With more than 70 comments already, my expectation is that other readers will point out shortcomings and stretch my own insights. Two related points for now:

1. Neither professor mentions is what happens when speculative mindsets are normalized; and

2. DEMAND is pulled forward because fear of rising rates hurried people into buying a home and justified paying over asking price.


For those who "regret" missing that opportunity, here's some Halloween fun that might help them adjust their perspective:

http://bit.ly/LastREhurrah

Anyone want to meet offline this coming week for a Bubble Hour? Or want to explore how policy changes and some new technology will change the future of the industry? See blog post for more detail (and more historical context):

http://bit.ly/Back2Billions
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe

[bsg61]

I've been sick for the past week but may be interested. I will check this board for updates…