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Description: NAR "forecast" for 2007 revised down yet again. Largest downward revision yet, even though 2007 was mostly over when they made their last "forecast." Nice graph showing history of "forecasts" along with choice quotes form each period.
URL: http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2007/11/narcasting-future-november-2007.html
Info/Broken?: http://www.bostonbubble.com/link_info.php?id=1265

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[JCK]

The list of quotes in the blog piece is absolutely hilarious. Who can take these jokers seriously?

[john p]

Humor is a defense mechanism. The way the real estate and mortgage industry has conducted themselves over the past five years is sleazy and unprofessional to say the least. What they need to worry about is that this humor turns into anger. What has kept a lid on this is that fact that it was mostly new buyers and subprime buyers who many don't have much compassion for that were hurt. If this subprime mess infects the babyboom's 401k's the "Me Generation" will be looking for a hanging. These younger bloggers who are cracking jokes (bubbleheads they're called) seem to be the least of the mortgage and real estate industry's concerns. The bubbleheads are much much smarter than them and when Mr. and Mrs. Babyboomer want some questions answered as to why their 401k's are tanking, Mr. Bubblehead will be there with some answers for them....

[Shoeshine]

These people are shameless


NAR Puts Housing Market in Perspective: 2007 Will be the Fifth Best Year on Record


LAS VEGAS, Nov. 13 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- What a difference five
years makes. That's the point made by NAR economists and practitioners in today's Economic Issues and Residential Real Estate Business Trends Forum
at the National Association of Realtors 2007 REALTORS Conference & Expo.

In 2002, home sales set a new record at just over 5.5 million, and
three-quarters of metro areas showed price gains over the previous year. At
the time, home buyers were confident that the real estate market was strong
and healthy. In 2007, existing-home sales are forecast to be about 5.5
million, and two-thirds of metro areas showed price gains last quarter.
Both 2002 and 2007 show strong sales, and homes continue to prove a good
long-term investment. But this year, public perceptions are different.

"In some ways, the extended real estate boom from 2001 to 2005 created
unrealistic expectations that housing is a short-term high-yield
investment," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "2007 will be the fifth
best year for housing on record. Places like Houston, the Kansas City area,
Indianapolis, and the vast middle section of the United States offer
affordable prices and continued job growth. On either coast, Seattle and
Raleigh, N.C., remain solid. And markets that experienced recent growth
declines - like Boston, Denver, and Washington, D.C. - have already shown
signs of recovery. In short, all real estate is local - conditions vary
greatly from one city to the next."

Yun explained that while the recent rise in foreclosures and
delinquencies has dampened consumer confidence in real estate, these
problems have been concentrated in the subprime market. "For buyers who
qualify for conventional financing, mortgages are available at favorable
rates," said Yun. "Major FHA reform will also help first-time home buyers
enter the market and will provide safer alternatives for many subprime
buyers. FHA market share for home purchases is expected to triple over the
next three years, from an estimated 4 percent in 2007 to an estimated 12
percent in 2009."

Responding to recent questions about the current value of
homeownership, Yun said, "Buying a home is not a quick-in, quick-out
investment, like buying a stock. Homeownership builds wealth over the
long-term."

To illustrate his point, Yun explained that over 10 years, a $10,000
investment in the stock market at a normal 10 percent market rate of return
would yield $23,600. The same investment as a down payment on a $200,000
home at a normal appreciation rate of 5 percent would return nearly 5 times
the stock market return, at $110,300.

Taking the long-term perspective, John Tuccillo, former NAR chief
economist and currently of John Tuccillo and Associates, reflected on
recent changes in the current real estate market and outlined what likely
lies ahead for the real estate industry.

"The demographics of home buying and selling are shifting
significantly, away from baby boomers and toward Generations X and Y," said
Tuccillo. "Baby boomers are still fueling demand for second homes in
communities across the country. However, younger generations are emerging
as market forces, and their influence will change how real estate
practitioners do business."

Tuccillo explained that members of Generations X and Y focus on the
bottom line. Consequently, the four elements of time, stress, convenience
and service will influence these younger consumers' perceptions of value.

"Technological mastery will become even more important, moving
forward," said Tuccillo. "Realtors must learn to integrate new channels of
communication into their businesses. As with other industries, real estate
professionals must efficiently meet the needs of their clients while
providing the world-class customer service to succeed."

The National Association of Realtors, "The Voice for Real Estate," is
America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million
members involved in all aspects of residential and commercial real estate
industries.

Information about NAR is available at http://www.realtor.org. This and other
news releases are posted on the Web site's "News media" section in the NAR
Media Center.

SOURCE National Association of Realtors

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