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MAR on Jul 2007 vs Jul 2006: nominal SFH prices up 1.3%. Pri

 
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 5:22 pm GMT    Post subject: MAR on Jul 2007 vs Jul 2006: nominal SFH prices up 1.3%. Pri Reply with quote

Use this forum thread to discuss the following link.

Description: MAR on Jul 2007 vs Jul 2006: nominal SFH prices up 1.3%. Price discrepancy now 15% above Warren Group.
URL: http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/blogs/renow/2007/08/mass_home_sales.html
Info/Broken?: http://www.bostonbubble.com/link_info.php?id=1090

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 5:26 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

A few quick notes:

  • This is still a decline when adjusted for inflation.
  • The Warren Group reported a decline in nominal prices of 4.6% for the same period.
  • The gap between the MAR's data and The Warren Group's data is glaring. The MAR's reported median price was 15.39% higher than the median reported by The Warren Group.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 7:11 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

In my opinion, this increase in median price could be solely to the lack of subprime. If subprime was funding many lower priced places and if you start to remove those lower numbers then the median goes up. July YOY sales are down 17, 29, and 18 percent compared to 2003, 2004, and 2005 respectively.

just my 2 cents

Does the warren group publish what percentage of the sales were at auction?
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 7:23 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

That is a good point. However, the number of sales reported by both groups was actually up, whereas I would have expected a suprime hit to the bottom to reduce overall sales. I do think you have a very good point that a change in the median can be brought about by what is being sold, though, rather than actual price changes. It will be very interesting to see what happens when the disappearance of jumbo loans filters in and throws the top end for a spin.

The S&P/Case Shiller Index will be a much better measurement when it comes out since it compensates for changes in the types of houses being sold.

I didn't see anything regarding the percentage of sales at auction in The Warren Group's press release from this morning, but maybe they have it somewhere on their site.

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