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CL,

GenXer and BostonITer,

See what I see. The Bulk of the Boston economy is based on Government Subsidies or Finance.
Healthcare - is dependent on Government spending - I think I recall that Medicare is 50-60% of all healthcare spending. No matter how you slice it huge amounts of Government Money (Tax payer funds or borrowed funds) flow into every aspect of Heatlhcare.
Defense contracts and Education are two other great pillars of the Boston Area economy.
CL - add up the number of People that you know that work in Healthcare or Education or Defense.

If the Interest rates are force up in the future - the Government will have to spend less Money - which Industries will be impacted.

Sadly, the Manufacturing base of Boston Area has been in decline for decades.

Can Government spending replace Manufacturing as a Source of Wealth?

GenXer · Joined: 20 Feb 2009 Posts: 703

Boston ITer · Joined: 11 Jan 2010 Posts: 269

Renting in Mass · Posted: Wed Jun 01, 2011 4:41 pm GMT Post subject:

50 most populous metro areas ranked by job postings per capita

Boston is #6. That's up from #8 last quarter.

My apologies to those who don't believe in using data to form their conclusions.

GenXer · Joined: 20 Feb 2009 Posts: 703

What does this show? I can show you thousands of postings, and only a handful of actual hires.

What is the rate at which those who are laid off are losing benefits? How many drop out of the workforce?

Renting in Mass · Posted: Wed Jun 01, 2011 6:07 pm GMT Post subject:

Guest · Guest

I'm not sure I caught the reason that genXer wants to be here.
Something about risking that he won't lose his shirt.
But what compels you to be here in the first place and take that risk?
Aren't there other more desirable, less risky places to be?

Boston ITer · Joined: 11 Jan 2010 Posts: 269

GenXer · Joined: 20 Feb 2009 Posts: 703

We can always cherry-pick numbers to show that either we are doing well, or not doing well. This exercise is quite pointless.

Do you know why? Because the predictive power of these numbers is 0! If we were able to predict the future based on current numbers, some of us could get very wealthy. But what is a good predictor of possible disaster? Large unfunded liabilities which are getting bigger, for example, as well as future cuts that could create a big downside. No mystery about that. I don't claim that you can make money on this, because we don't know how much and when, but this possibility is much stronger than the supposedly 'fixed' economy that will somehow miraculously recover.

Just like a house is a place to live, MA is just a place to stay. Much of America is very mobile, and for a good reason. Most people are likely staying where they are either because of family or because of jobs.

Boston ITer · Joined: 11 Jan 2010 Posts: 269

Renting in Mass · Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 3:43 pm GMT Post subject:

Renting in Mass · Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 3:54 pm GMT Post subject:

To clarify my argument:

Boston ITer says "When hiring is in paucity but mainstay jobs are in retraction, the region changes." That's a statement about the present. I provided some information about the present that suggest that hiring isn't "in paucity."

GenXer · Joined: 20 Feb 2009 Posts: 703

I know exactly what's going on with the hiring. I network with dozens (if not hundreds) of people. I know who got a job in what area and who didn't. Many software people got jobs, but contract. Defense jobs are dwindling. Software is mostly hiring younger people.

I don't disagree with you on hiring - it is happening. But so are layoffs, and people dropping off the unemployment.

Unemployment is still very high for any type of recovery. In fact, let's wait a year or two and see. If nothing changes, we are nowhere near recovery.

If you are familiar with a concept of equillibrium, it does not mean that nothing happens, but rather the number of jobs created is equal to the number of jobs lost. While the number of jobs created can be high, I see that the number of jobs lost is equally high, and add to that those who drop off, this pretty much keeps the unemployment rate steady (despite the phantom drop, much of which can be explained this way).

Also, don't forget the new college grads. They've never been employed, so the unemployment is probably even higher because of that.

GenXer · Joined: 20 Feb 2009 Posts: 703

I told you so:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/More-job-seekers-give-up-apf-1644448346.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

Next article would be something like 'unemployment rate higher because new gards can't find work'.

Compound that a couple of years, and you'll see what phantom unemployment is vs. official numbers.

Renting in Mass · Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2011 12:54 pm GMT Post subject:

You're switching arguments midstream. We were talking about how Boston is doing compared to other cities. Now you're talking about the US labor market. I don't disagree that unemployment is high, lots of people have giving up looking, and college grads are having a hard time finding work.

This chart says it all.