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admin
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 Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2011 2:24 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Whoa... slow down there Usain Bolt. We wouldn't want the lenders to have any of their backdoor bailouts cut short.
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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| Posted: Wed Mar 02, 2011 10:47 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Don't think that just because they want a bill in 2years that housing will be fixed in 2years. I recall reading some ramblings about gradually bowing out of the housing market over the next 50 years or so. Since no pain will be tolerated except during screaming bull markets, you can expect that future administrations won't let the plan complete for at least 100 years. |
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admin
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| Posted: Wed Mar 02, 2011 10:56 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Saying 2 years is even casting it in too good of a light. We should at the very least start counting from 2008 when the so called crisis come to the fore. That's at least 4+ years. I would personally start counting from 2004, when it was glaringly obvious that there was a housing bubble and things were broken. So they will start to try fixing things at least 9 years after they should have. And I think you are right that the fix itself will take an excruciatingly long time after that to work its way through.
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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| Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2011 5:26 am GMT Post subject: |
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The housing bubble appeared over a few years but will take a few decades to recover from, if ever. Can people afford homes in Japan yet?
Funny how Obama criticized China for bulldozing homes in his state of the union address yet Chinese home ownership is rising while American home ownership is falling. |
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admin
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| Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2011 2:01 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| balor123 wrote: | | The housing bubble appeared over a few years but will take a few decades to recover from, if ever. |
If the transference of responsibility for new mortgages to the private sector actually is implemented gradually over the course of a few decades, and the administrations time it so that the most disruptive parts of the transference occur when the economy is otherwise strong, this is essentially saying that there will be no upside to real prices for several decades. Any upside would ideally be captured by the transition, by the government/taxpayers transferring risk. As annoying as that might first sound for prospective first time buyers, it could actually be a good thing if the concept of houses as depreciable goods sinks into conventional wisdom and the majority of the population starts setting prices accordingly as opposed to the current conventional wisdom, which is still that housing is a fantastic long term investment. The kink in all this is that administrations won't necessarily be able to time the transference so well.
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balor123
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| Posted: Fri Mar 04, 2011 4:18 am GMT Post subject: |
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| I'm not convinced it would survive such a long time period. |
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