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MLSPIN: MA SFH sales fall 32% YOY in November, nominal media

 
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Joined: 14 Jul 2007
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Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 1:19 pm GMT    Post subject: MLSPIN: MA SFH sales fall 32% YOY in November, nominal media Reply with quote

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Description: MLSPIN: MA SFH sales fall 32% YOY in November, nominal median up 5.3%
URL: http://news.bostonherald.com/business/real_estate/view/20101214housing_market_ta ...truncated...
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Renting in Mass



Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 381
Location: In a house I bought in December 2011

PostPosted: Wed Dec 15, 2010 2:03 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very strange. Massive sales drops and huge months of supply aren't usually correlated with rising prices. I'm assuming that the price increases are a result in a change in the mix of what's selling. In other words, houses in the lower tier aren't selling, so the median goes up even if prices are actually dropping. I don't have data to back that up though.

I'm looking to buy a single family, but I track townhouse prices in my town because it's easier to compare them because there are so many identical units. The complex that I follow the most closely is way down in price. At peak they went for 350k. The last sale (in 2008!) was 290k. Newer, bigger townhouses have sold for significantly less than that since then. That just doesn't jive with the condo price increase of 11%. I don't see how 40% sales drops can sustainably coexist with 10% price increases.

So prices are way down in my sample, but it doesn't show up in the data because nobody in that sample can afford to sell. Maybe people in the higher tiers can still sell because they started with more equity or have a bigger financial cushion?
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Joined: 14 Jul 2005
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Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Wed Dec 15, 2010 2:23 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Renting in Mass wrote:
Very strange. Massive sales drops and huge months of supply aren't usually correlated with rising prices. I'm assuming that the price increases are a result in a change in the mix of what's selling. In other words, houses in the lower tier aren't selling, so the median goes up even if prices are actually dropping. I don't have data to back that up though.


That's my guess too. We will know if that's true once the S&P/Case-Shiller numbers come out for November. The latest S&P/C-SI numbers for Boston (for July - September) were indeed already down YOY in real terms despite the rising median previously reported by The MAR and Warren Group.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 15, 2010 4:42 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Personally I find tracking individual town and price range that I selected gives me a better gauge on the real estate market that I am interested in. Price movement and supply varies quite a bit depending on towns/price range you look at. In more desirable towns, /500/600/700K range house, I do not see a drop in sales nor price. 2010 has a slight rebound in sales and price compared to 2009, if anything. Have no hard data to backup but this maybe interesting

http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/blogs/renow/2010/12/looking_at_the_1.html
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Renting in Mass



Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 381
Location: In a house I bought in December 2011

PostPosted: Fri Dec 17, 2010 8:17 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is related to my earlier post about townhouse/condo prices.

So the townhouses I watch went for 350k at peak. The next street over has a newer development with comparable units that finished construction in 2008 and went on the market in early 2009 at 310k. I don't think any sold. They just came back on the market at 230k. That's a 35% decrease from the peak.
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