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Economists blew the bubble

 
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Joined: 14 Jul 2007
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Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Mon Aug 23, 2010 1:33 pm GMT    Post subject: Economists blew the bubble Reply with quote

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Description: Economists blew the bubble
URL: http://www.bostonherald.com/business/general/view/20100823economists_blew_the_bu ...truncated...
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Joined: 14 Jul 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 23, 2010 1:44 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am baffled as to how this made it into the study:
Quote:

However, Fed researchers found that none of the four published their views in journals that put articles through rigorous peer reviews.

Most also got at least some aspect of the bubble wrong, the study found.

For instance, Dean began warning of the collapse some four years too early...

The whole point of a bubble is that the market has diverged from fundamentals and is behaving irrationally. There is no predicting timing in that scenario (the market can stay irrational longer than an individual can stay solvent betting against it). It's ludicrous to suggest that Baker was wrong because he didn't wait to warn about the bubble until exactly the year of the peak. This seems a lot less like a study than it does the Boston Fed trying to make excuses for its own lack of leadership.

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