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Joined: 14 Jul 2007
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admin
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 Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 4:14 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Adjusted for inflation via the CPI-NU, single family home prices as reported by the MAR are down 3.79% from one year earlier and down 9.37% from the peak. Updated graphs will follow later in the week. Note that the peak was set exactly two years ago in June 2005, so the decline from the peak is particularly relevant this month as the comparison is unaffected by seasonal variation.
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| Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 5:05 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| JCK (in another thread) wrote: | I'm surprised. Weren't we down around 16% just a couple months ago?
Given that prices are moving down, I though for sure we would be even lower by now.
Maybe it's that screwy MAR data... |
While the MAR data is probably not the best source (I prefer the S&P/Case-Shiller Index), I think this is just due to seasonality. Note how in this graph from last month you can see that prices rise and fall throughout each year, typically peaking in summer:
As a consequence of the natural, annual cycle, the decline from the peak will naturally be greater during the off-peak seasons, like winter. The comparison to the peak using the June data is particularly useful because the peak also occurred in a month of June, so there should be no seasonal distortion. For other months, you just have to keep in mind that there is a seasonal difference at play too.
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