bostonbubble.com

[john p]

Notice the lack of activity on this site in the last few weeks. This is why from a seasonal perspective, this is one of the best times to get a deal.

[melonrightcoast]

i disagree. many places have gone under agreement in my town in the past few weeks. there are only 30 SFH under $600K on the market right now, and it peaked around 45 this spring. and most of the properties that have closed in the past few weeks have been a few thousand under initial asking price or a few thousand OVER initial asking price.

i am starting to see more jumbo loans, too. it seems too many people haven't learned much from the past year. this is going to take forever to play out.
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melonrightcoast ... are you?

[john p]

wow, no kidding.

[Hard Rain]

Mel,

Where is your town?

[melonrightcoast]

oh, I would not joke about this. it is very disturbing to me, as I am beginning to realize that we will likely be renting for the foreseeable future (3+ years) until both girls are in school and I can get a paid job so that we can buy a house that will suit our needs for the next 15-20 years. we've even "expanded" our search to include smaller homes (~1500 sq ft) that would suit us well now but could be easily expanded in 5 - 7 years. problem is, those homes are going the quickest since they are typically priced between $375-$500K.

i feel so conflicted ... part of me understands the reasoning behind the stimulus and bank bailouts (trying to avoid Great Depression II), and part of me is really ticked-off that because of greed, reckless policies and irresponsible people, my family is getting the shaft because home prices are staying too high for us to afford.

as for long-term renting ... where we live now should suit our needs for 5+ years. and I'm still not divulging our town: we don't need any more potential buyers keeping prices high. totally self-serving of me and annoying to all of you, I'm sure.

what do all of you think the chances are of a second round of C4C and the first-time home-buyer credit? ideally, the government will not do more of that and let the bubble deflate and prices normalize, but I have serious doubts. i hope i'm wrong. we even qualify for the first-time home-buyer credit, but it still doesn't even push us over the edge for being able to buy a fixer.

Brian C is wise to do all his renos now, before he has kids.
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melonrightcoast ... are you?

[Xenos]

Entirely agreeing with you. I managed, through luck really, to ride the rise and to prepare for a collapse I thought I saw coming. Even sold my last home in 2005, leaving that poor young family that bought it nearly $100,000 underwater today. Now the collapse is here, it is damned difficult to make money and buying back into the nice 'immune' towns still fails to come close to pencilling out. And it is great that there is stimulus out there, but who needs a few thousand dollars in credit in order to by a house that is overpriced by a couple hundred thousand dollars? I can't even use C4C because my cars do not suck enough.

Best solution I can come up with is to leave the country for a few years and wait for this country to turn around. I can't save, can't responsibly invest, can't beat the system, can't even reliably make an honest living. Fuck it.

[melonrightcoast]

[balor123]

The stimulus is fantastic in places where the cost of the building dominates the cost of land. You'll never find a better deal in those places. Just sucks to be in a place like Boston where that isn't the case

[john p]

It's hard to see the stars align when the road is bumpy.

[Xenos]

[quote="john p"]It's hard to see the stars align when the road is bumpy.[/quote]

When your GPS system is screwed up, it gets very hard. Sorry for the whining above. Whatever professional disappointments I have had are not a big deal - I just don't know how to advise my kids, aside from making sure they have the widest range of choices. And to know better than to follow conventional wisdom.

[john p]

I think a little venting is good on a blog like this because it helps others disect the stresses and strains that others are feeling, and that is valuable. It is a very good diagnostic provided others can "consider the source".

[melonrightcoast]

[Devlin]

I can tell you that there is no shortage of movement in the good parts of Dorchester.

I wanted to submit a bid on a three family in Dorchester with a listing price of $525,000. I was told not to bother with my offer because it was at 85% of asking and there are several better offers already. Since I dont plan on increasing the offer much if they countered I am going wait and see what happens with the other offers.

Someone out there is buying these multis up. I have seen several others come off the market this month.

[Guest]

What sort of rents are they getting in Dorchester these days? Does this sort of price pencil out in such a way as to make any sense?

[Guest]

Here is the info:
MLS #: 70952393
Asking $524,900

3 Family
5,200 sq feet
4 bedrooms one bath per unit
kitchen, living, dining, lots of awkward closet space makes all rooms relatively small considering sq footage. Fridges currently setup to be in cubbard because kitchen does not have room.

Front/Rear porches
Two ancient gas furnaces, (coal conversion)
newer 200 amp elec service
wooden/lead windows
30+ yr old kitchens, no dish or garbage, no fridges

Rent on 2nd and 3rd floors $1,000 per month.
first floor vacant

2 car garage and 2 parking spaces.
one of the nicer neighborhoods on dorchester
Susan Menino is next door neighbor
All three units failed lead paint inspection in 1991, no other inspections

Tax $5,500
Water (Estimate) $2,750
Tax (Estimate) $2,750
I assumed rents could be at $1,400 as is
I used 10% Vacancy
Also used $5,000 a year for improvements.
Capital needs (furnaces, roof, kitchens, baths, windows)

Issues I see
Since units appear to be covered in lead paint, renting to families could be a challenge/problem.

To really boost rent up to $1,800 you need to gut several walls and open place up along with 5 appliances, bath updates and cabinets.

Condo Conversion...
Acquisition Costs $500,000
Improvements $200,000
Cost of Capital $42,000
RE Fees $45,000
At sales price of $300,000 per unit which is INSANE in this market
Profit?? $113,000 -

$250,000 is more likely - Now you lost money


As a Rental I see this place penciling out at $450,000, MAX
I don't see an immediate condo conversion (1-3 years) Maybe down the road if you are very optimistic.

My broker verbally inquired about the property and was told not to waste his time or the paper needed to make the offer.

Offer was going to be between 425K and 450K. Is this worth $500,000?

What do you guys think?