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Zillow: 21.9% of US homeowners underwater, 16.3% of Boston M

 
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Joined: 14 Jul 2007
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Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2009 12:58 pm GMT    Post subject: Zillow: 21.9% of US homeowners underwater, 16.3% of Boston M Reply with quote

Use this forum thread to discuss the following link.

Description: Zillow: 21.9% of US homeowners underwater, 16.3% of 2009 Boston MSA mortgages already underwater
URL: http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=122
Info/Broken?: http://www.bostonbubble.com/link_info.php?id=2338

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Editor's Note: The description been corrected to clarify the meaning of the Boston figure.
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admin
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Joined: 14 Jul 2005
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Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2009 1:01 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Herald incorrectly reported the 1-in-5 US statistic as applying to Boston. The actual report from Zillow puts negative equity for mortgages within the Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH MSA at 16.3%.

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JCK



Joined: 15 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2009 1:31 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's a negative equity map by town:

http://www.zillow.com/reports/RealEstateMarketChartsAndMaps.htm?msa=Boston%20Cambridge%20Quincy%20MA%20NH&graphic=Map-Real-Estate-Market-Percent-Homes-With-Negative-Equity
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JCK



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PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2009 1:33 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is pretty fantastic data. I know people (myself included) have issues with Zillow's methodology. But I suspect their macro numbers are quite a bit better than their guesses (Zestimates) on how much any one home is worth.
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JCK



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PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2009 2:25 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

admin,

Where are you getting the 16.3% number from? I'm seeing purchase year 2009 as being 16.3% based on mortgages (not homeowners) with negative equity.

The numbers for other years look far worse...
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PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2009 2:34 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

JCK wrote:
admin,

Where are you getting the 16.3% number from? I'm seeing purchase year 2009 as being 16.3% based on mortgages (not homeowners) with negative equity.

The numbers for other years look far worse...


Oh, you're right. Thanks for pointing that out, I'll need to correct the title. That's pretty incredible, then - we're only a month past the quarter in question, which means that 16.3% of Boston area mortgages this year had essentially instant negative equity.

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JCK



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PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2009 2:37 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I did think that was shocking too.

Their numbers only go back to 2004, and I assume they're estimating equity based on mortgage payments somehow.

Also, some of Zillow's numbers are percentages of "homeowners with mortgages" whereas the main article refers to percentages of "total homeowners." There are significant number of homeowners w/o mortgages.



So this becomes very confusing indeed.
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PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2009 2:45 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

JCK wrote:

Also, some of Zillow's numbers are percentages of "homeowners with mortgages" whereas the main article refers to percentages of "total homeowners." There are significant number of homeowners w/o mortgages.


Right, I was thinking the same thing too. The language in the narrative seems a lot more vague than their spreadsheets and charts.

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