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One month of cash cushion if laid off

 
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Boston ITer
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 12:05 am GMT    Post subject: One month of cash cushion if laid off Reply with quote

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2008898320_scared21.html

I'm curious about the above article, how true is it? And secondly, isn't that what the whole RE bubble was about, people with good incomes, stretching to get into a home and thus, barely having a month of available cash for a layoff?
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StallionMang



Joined: 29 Apr 2008
Posts: 54

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 1:01 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Betcha BBubble readers are smarter than your average Bull - and bound to have more savings. I can't fathom living month to month by choice. I'm happy to be a credit card 'deadbeat' with a zero balance Smile

But the Conspicuous Consumers made up for us. Household debt surpassed GDP in 2007:



Quote:

This chart tracks the relationship between household debt and gross domestic product. You'll see two years when Americans' debt becomes 100 percent of GDP -- 1929 and 2007. It's the chart that made Columbia professor David Beim say:

"The problem is us. The problem is not the banks, greedy though they may be, overpaid though they may be. The problem is us... We've been living very high on the hog. Our living standard has been rising dramatically in the last 25 years. And we have been borrowing much of the money to make that prosperity happen." ]


That debt will want to increase.... some nasty feedback loops as bad credit-> higher rates-> inability to refinance. Death Spiral.
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WestCoastXPlant
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 1:11 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

very likely:

http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/saving.htm

On the positive side, with people being laid off left and right, it seems to be rising. But it's no surprise -- just the amount of student debt in recent years (not to mention consumer debt and housing prices) would have led to this...People talk about being house-poor but I know of MDs who already come out of school with a mortgage equivalent worth of debt (yes, yes, I know, they'll make a lot of money Laughing )
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StallionMang



Joined: 29 Apr 2008
Posts: 54

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 1:47 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123120525879656021.html

Quote:

U.S. household debt, which has been growing steadily since the Federal Reserve began tracking it in 1952, declined for the first time in the third quarter of 2008. In the same quarter, U.S. consumer spending growth declined for the first time in 17 years.

In the American buying spree of recent years, the most profligate spenders were those under 35. As recently as 2006, for every $100 these Americans earned, they spent about $117. Those aged 35 to 55 had negative saving rates nearly as large. Only the large number of Americans 55 and older, who have always had high double-digit saving rates, kept the overall saving rate above zero, according to data from Moody's Economy.com and the Federal Reserve.

Several factors are now pushing saving rates upward, including tighter restrictions on credit and home borrowing. Growth in consumer credit slowed to 1.2% at an annual rate in the third quarter, the Fed said, far lower than the 3.9% pace in the prior quarter.

So credit was still growing in Q308. It took the world falling apart for people to get it.
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balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 2:31 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

And the Fed is making it increasingly difficult for people to build up those savings by making that "investment" less attractive. It's especially hard when you are trying to keep a down payment for a house in the bank. Between the two in this area you're looking at >$150k! At this point, I'm surprised that banks even want money from consumers. Thankfully, we still have reward checking accounts paying 4-6% but it's hard to get $150k earning that rate. MM funds are near zero and high interest online savings account are around 1.5 - 2%. Mixed picture on how inflation is progressing.
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GenXer



Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 12:55 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

balor123: True - this is why there are still short-duration and/or municipal bonds for those who would like a little more risk. But you are right - emergency cash is not earning much at all, which is a huge problem for huge savers. However, like all things in life, this one is only temporary - government intervention has its limits too.

StallionMang: Do not forget that government is now keeping a lot of people on unemployment, and that this unemployment is mightly long (maybe as long as 2 years?). I know it is definitely longer than a year. Coupled with bailout for those who should not have bought in the first place, I think this may slow down the effect of job losses, at least temporarily. Their hope is that this recession does not last long, in which case this may actually work as intended (i.e. keep houses unaffordable and keep those who bought those houses in a permanent state of unaffordability, i.e. 50% or more of their check going to pay for the house and a 0 savings rate). However, if this recession lasts a couple of years, the bailout will most likely not help.
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Boston ITer
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 3:02 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Do not forget that government is now keeping a lot of people on unemployment, and that this unemployment is mightly long (maybe as long as 2 years?).


Mass UI is now 59 weeks total. In essence, a smarter renter could arbitrage that into a cheaper rental (half off), out between Amherst and Lenox, while looking for jobs (which of course implies owning a pre-existing decent car, like a ~45K mileage Toyota) and it can really last some time, perhaps the whole length of the downturn w/o affecting his savings too much.

So in essence, some govt intervention isn't too bad, if applied judiciously. Homeownership, on the other hand, was one of its biggest boondoggles. Real estate markets should always follow the job markets, even if those jobs are being actors out in Hollywood (see Bel Air or Malibu, for extravagant prices even during bearish times). It should never have been a self-sustaining asset class on its own.
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