bostonbubble.com Forum Index bostonbubble.com
Boston Bubble - Boston Real Estate Analysis
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

 
Go to: Boston real estate bubble fact list with references
More Boston Bubble News...
DISCLAIMER: The information provided on this website and in the associated forums comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY, expressed or implied. You assume all risk for your own use of the information provided as the accuracy of the information is in no way guaranteed. As always, cross check information that you would deem useful against multiple, reliable, independent resources. The opinions expressed belong to the individual authors and not necessarily to other parties.

Arlington Artifice: Nov 2008 - Lowest sales since 1990, medi

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    bostonbubble.com Forum Index -> News & Reference Suggestions
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
news



Joined: 14 Jul 2007
Posts: 0
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Tue Jan 06, 2009 4:00 pm GMT    Post subject: Arlington Artifice: Nov 2008 - Lowest sales since 1990, medi Reply with quote

Use this forum thread to discuss the following link.

Description: Arlington Artifice: Nov 2008 - Lowest sales since 1990, median continues decline, MCAS scores call into question presumption of superior school system
URL: http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2008/12/arlington-artifice-november-2008.html?re ...truncated...
Info/Broken?: http://www.bostonbubble.com/link_info.php?id=2108

Subscribe to New Links: RSS Feed
Suggest a Link: Reference Suggestion Forum
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
BelmontRenter



Joined: 29 Dec 2008
Posts: 52

PostPosted: Tue Jan 06, 2009 7:24 pm GMT    Post subject: News?? Reply with quote

As far as I can tell, the referenced Boston Globe article was published in October 2007. I have no idea why that blogger refers to the article as "recent."
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
admin
Site Admin


Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1823
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Tue Jan 06, 2009 7:42 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: News?? Reply with quote

BelmontRenter wrote:
As far as I can tell, the referenced Boston Globe article was published in October 2007. I have no idea why that blogger refers to the article as "recent."


In the context of real estate cycles, one year is recent. The housing correction was already well underway in October 2007, and we're still in the same part of the cycle. I am glad he is keeping up with monthly updates on it because it brings at least a little bit of accountability to what gets published as "news." Also, the authors on the Globe's blog were particularly relentless in puffing up Arlington for some time after that article was published, so October 2007 was just the start.

I'd say that assertions made since the beginning of the downturn (2005) are recent enough to revisit frequently. Remember the "soft landing?" Remember how everything was "contained" at first to sub-prime and then to housing? It's important to remember just how wrong the supposed experts were because they are still the ones being quoted in the media and making the decisions.

- admin
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Tue Jan 06, 2009 10:59 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd imagine you've got more respect for the likes of say a Karl Case. Even though he was wrong, he identified three benchmarks that have indicated a bottom in the prior cycles. He wasn't so much an expert on the broader economy so I'm sure he didn't see the magnitude of the tsunami of the credit meltdown.

On the one hand people try to contain the subject matter to just housing, but it was contributing factors outside of the housing market that are causing this situation. I think Karl Case did put the qualification in that if there was a recession all bets were off. Real Estate market experts don't typically have deep understanding of macro economics. All those people that say "What's that got to do with the housing market" ought to understand now that a broader view is essential to understanding the environment surrounding the housing market. I mean the Middle East is erupting, the Russians are rattling their sabers, we've got a massive debt and they're proposing trillions of new spending and potential incentives like super low mortgage rates, we've got unemployment numbers not seen since the early 80's, failing banks, failing Big 3 Auto, we've got a babyboom retiring and failing infrastructure, and potentially an increase in Afghanistan. It is kind of mind numbing, so I wonder who is an "expert" today.

I think all these forces will set a constant global temperature. Certain currencies will cool off and others will heat up to find equilibrium. Because the US Dollar is a common medium of exchange, I see a devaluing of the Dollar with the increased spending and stimulus. I am curious to see how other nations try to manipulate their currency especially among the Eurozone. The Arabs and Russians have oil so they're manipulating their currency (oil) by controlling production.

I got the impression that the Arlington article was a puff piece too, but in context it wasn't dropping like a rock. I think at the time real estate groups were most likely trying to lobby the media and this is one that got by the goalie. This blogger pretty much put the writer in the penalty box to feel shame.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
admin
Site Admin


Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1823
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Tue Jan 06, 2009 11:31 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

john p wrote:
It is kind of mind numbing, so I wonder who is an "expert" today.


Exactly. I can think of nobody. Hence the need to play defensively and live below your means so that you have a margin of safety. That's why I found the bubble so infuriating - people were doing the exact opposite, in part due to encouragement from the so called experts.

- admin
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
BelmontRenter



Joined: 29 Dec 2008
Posts: 52

PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 12:46 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

admin wrote:
john p wrote:
It is kind of mind numbing, so I wonder who is an "expert" today.


Exactly. I can think of nobody. Hence the need to play defensively and live below your means so that you have a margin of safety. That's why I found the bubble so infuriating - people were doing the exact opposite, in part due to encouragement from the so called experts.

- admin


This is where I am today -- living below my means. The desire to get back to being almost house poor is strong, and those who have "never failed to make money on a house" question it, but in many ways it feels comfortable.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204

PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 1:03 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Living below your means, when it comes to housing, in the Boston area isn't easy, especially if you are young. We get so much less for the same percentage of our money than most Americans get. We are particularly disadvantaged because our housing stock is so much older than is found in other cities.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    bostonbubble.com Forum Index -> News & Reference Suggestions All times are GMT
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You can post new topics in this forum
You can reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Forum posts are owned by the original posters.
Forum boards are Copyright 2005 - present, bostonbubble.com.
Privacy policy in effect.
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group