bostonbubble.com Forum Index bostonbubble.com
Boston Bubble - Boston Real Estate Analysis
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

 
Go to: Boston real estate bubble fact list with references
More Boston Bubble News...
DISCLAIMER: The information provided on this website and in the associated forums comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY, expressed or implied. You assume all risk for your own use of the information provided as the accuracy of the information is in no way guaranteed. As always, cross check information that you would deem useful against multiple, reliable, independent resources. The opinions expressed belong to the individual authors and not necessarily to other parties.

Bay State logs a 3d straight year of population growth

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    bostonbubble.com Forum Index -> News & Reference Suggestions
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
news



Joined: 14 Jul 2007
Posts: 0
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Tue Dec 23, 2008 1:37 pm GMT    Post subject: Bay State logs a 3d straight year of population growth Reply with quote

Use this forum thread to discuss the following link.

Description: Bay State logs a 3d straight year of population growth
URL: http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2008/12/23/bay_state_log ...truncated...
Info/Broken?: http://www.bostonbubble.com/link_info.php?id=2091

Subscribe to New Links: RSS Feed
Suggest a Link: Reference Suggestion Forum
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
admin
Site Admin


Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1824
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Tue Dec 23, 2008 1:49 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Note the graph on the left hand side of the article. In particular, notice that the years where the population was declining were largely years when housing prices were headed up. Similarly, now that the population of the state is increasing again, housing prices are heading down. So the cliche that higher housing prices are a certainty because the population is growing is demonstrably false.

- admin
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204

PostPosted: Tue Dec 23, 2008 4:48 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think in other areas the rule is accurate - higher population means higher housing prices. If you look back a few decades, then that rule would hold true for Boston as well. The rule is no longer accurate because the population can't bear higher costs anymore. Disposable income has been fully spent so for house prices to rise income also has to rise. More competition alone won't solve the problem.

I love this statement: "You can't change the weather or the cost of living. That's the hand we're dealt.". Not entirely true that you can't change the weather (global warming) but it is hard so I'll go with it. But: "or the cost of living"? No wonder the cost of living is so high here - the politicians have already decided that they can't do anything about it! How about allowing more development? Greater supply => lower cost. Relaxed regulations, taxes, subsidies, etc Those changes do reduce the cost of living, they just choose not to do them.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
admin
Site Admin


Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1824
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Tue Dec 23, 2008 5:30 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

balor123 wrote:
I think in other areas the rule is accurate - higher population means higher housing prices.


The rule makes intuitive sense, but there are at least two significant problems with it. 1) It makes no allowance for the possibility that the population growth rate was already baked into the price. 2) It assumes that population growth is a dominant factor. Right now, prices are declining pretty much everywhere across the US despite a growing population because other factors are dominating. I'm not saying that population growth doesn't lend some support to prices, just that the effect is a lot weaker than other factors.

- admin
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
JCK



Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 559

PostPosted: Tue Dec 23, 2008 10:14 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

And the fastest growing areas (FL, AZ, NV) are experiencing the biggest declines right now.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    bostonbubble.com Forum Index -> News & Reference Suggestions All times are GMT
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You can post new topics in this forum
You can reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Forum posts are owned by the original posters.
Forum boards are Copyright 2005 - present, bostonbubble.com.
Privacy policy in effect.
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group