bostonbubble.com

[Brian C]

Per the MAR's 2007 report on Buyers/Sellers Profiles:

[showgunx]

Go to Dochester, roxbury, lynn etc, you will find many properties in or below this price range. Just change all windows in your newly purchased property to bullet proof glass and you are all set to start your american dream.

[john p]

The more the retirement communities get clobbered like in Florida, the more attractive it will be for the boomers to pack up and sell their place to you. The flip side is that if they work in the white collar fields, they might put off retirement if their 401k's get clobbered.

[Brian C]

[showgunx]

Brian,
The below link will tell you my "bullet proof glass" statement is fair. The shooting in Dorchester for the past year is pretty evenly spreaded. Not just in the westside.

http://www.universalhub.com/crime/dotmurders.html

I don't know how big and nice the $400K house in your area is, I think it must be a very nice house in order to fetch that kind of price.
But if a average 2000 square single house could cost that much money in Dorchester currently, that tells you real estates price in boston area has long way to fall.
I think there is not enough 'fear' in boston real estate market yet, just because education and healthcare industries are less affected by the current market down turn. Students and Nurses are holding the local economy up for now.
Give it couple of years, the recession has to sink much deeper into everyone's daily life, before the fear triggers capitulation, and eventually triggers despairation in boston real estates market. By then you will get your $243k single house.

[balor123]

$250k will get you nothing in Waltham as well, traditionally considered a working class town. New construction SFH house here in a nice part of town runs about $500 - $550k. Duplexes around $400k - $500k. Relatively new 2br for $350k - $400k.

[Guest]

as for waltham-- Things are still so far disconnected with reality-- Now waltham is an okay town but no way would I want my kids going to school there.. It has nice areas but there are some very sketchy ones as well.

here is a brief listing of houses for sale (today) that also sold within the last 2-3 years-- given a modest 10% drop you would expect a decrese-- but not to these sellers-- so what happens outside the few lucky ones that get their price..

Price: $689,900
13 Brennan Ave
Waltham, MA 02453
Beds: 3 On Redfin: 86 days
Baths: 2.5 Year Built: 1962
SQ.FT.: 2,315 Lot Size: 0.45 a
$/SQ.FT.: $298 MLS#: 70799881
Status: Active
Last Sale: $665,000 (09/26/2005)

Price: $529,000
765 Lincoln St
Waltham, MA 02451
Beds: 2 On Redfin: 44 days
Baths: 2 Year Built: 1958
SQ.FT.: 2,415 Lot Size: 0.56 a
$/SQ.FT.: $219 MLS#: 70819340
Last Sale: $510,000 (05/19/2006)

Price: $359,900
167 Berkley St
Waltham, MA 02154
Beds: 4 On Redfin: 70 days
Baths: 1 Year Built: 1952
SQ.FT.: 1,458 Lot Size: 9,300 sf
$/SQ.FT.: $247 MLS#: 70807528
Last Sale: $352,500 (07/12/2006)

Price: $429,900
43 PLANT Rd
Waltham, MA 02451
Beds: 3 On Redfin: 2 days
Baths: 1.5 Year Built: 2002
SQ.FT.: 1,344 Lot Size: 6,730 sf
$/SQ.FT.: $320 MLS#: 70838120
Last Sale: $380,000 (09/26/2005)

Price: $539,000
115 Kingston
Waltham, MA 02451
Beds: 3 On Redfin: 57 days
Baths: 2 Year Built: 1960
SQ.FT.: 3,351 Lot Size: 10,045 sf
$/SQ.FT.: $161 MLS#: 70812742
Status: Active
Last Sale: $430,000 (12/06/2005)

Price: $419,900
50 BIGELOW Rd
Waltham, MA 02451
Beds: 3 On Redfin: 23 days
Baths: 1 Year Built: 1950
SQ.FT.: 1,404 Lot Size: 8,823 sf
$/SQ.FT.: $299 MLS#: 70829242
Status: Active
Last Sale: $331,250 (09/01/2004)

Price: $349,111
542 Trapelo Rd
Waltham, MA 02452
Beds: 3 On Redfin: 3 days
Baths: 1 Year Built: 1958
SQ.FT.: 1,862 Lot Size: 0.25 a
$/SQ.FT.: $187 MLS#: 70837596
Status: New
Last Sale: $300,000 (07/18/2005)

Now I find this house the perfect example of the housing bubble and ridiculousness that is the boston real estate market... 1995 affordable for a family making 60k per year-- a solid house in a working class neighbor hood... well today that same family would need to earn about 135k per year-- not too many working class families earning that now are there??

Price: $399,900
476 Lincoln St
Waltham, MA 02451
Beds: 3 On Redfin: 10 days
Baths: 1.5 Year Built: 1987
SQ.FT.: 1,624 Lot Size: 4,339 sf
$/SQ.FT.: $246 MLS#: 70834975
Status: Active
Last Sale: $165,000 (08/01/1995)

That is just a tiny 5 minute sampling--

[balor123]

I wish I could go door to door and ask: (1) how much did you pay for your house? (2) how much do you make? (3) what do you do for a living?

[Guest]

the thing that is interesting to me is how uniform the expectations are. With current status quo why should anyone not get their asking price? some of these houses (even though a small %) are still selling. Is this due to the uneducated buyer or because people just need to buy something?

What will be the catalyst to make the market actually come in line with realities (price to rent, income to mortgage, etc)?

I do feel that if we do see unemploement hit 10% as predicted this stubborn pricing will disappear-- but what happens to these 2004-2006/6 buyers? The cannot buy a house somewhere else (due to tighter lending standards)... They cannot sell for significantly less (unless they had a large down payment) does jingle mail become the only way to go?

or does the governement decide to reward these bubble buyers with reduced principles or payment terms?

[balor123]

I think you've hit the point exactly. They don't want to accept a loss and unemployment is still low around here. They post and wait. None of the houses are selling but they can still make housing payments.

I think the few sales happening are a combination of uneducated buyers and those who just need to buy regardless of the market. Houses seem to be selling for about 5% under asking price in Waltham.

[Guest]

[Brian C]

This was my post above.

Since Waltham seems to be a somewhat desirable area, I will continue to publish the numbers every month.


Here is something to chew on.

October 2006 Median Sold Price $464k
October 2008 Median Sold Price $399k

October 2006 Difference between Active and Pending Price - 5%
October 2008 Difference between Active and Pending Price - 9%

[john p]

If you have the time could you benchmark a couple of apples to apples quality for those time periods (do a drive-by) that would be very helpful. I mean if it is an entirely different segment of quality that is moving that would be worth noting.

Basically, take a house that is say worth $400 today and see what its twin sold for in 2006. I'd be curious to see if the "median" was consistent with respect to quality.

Thank you.

[balor123]

The price has dropped because the filter function has changed, not because house prices are dropping. I'll try and post some data points tonight to back up my point, though it may be hard to dig up numbers going back far at this point.

[StallionMang]

Redfins views are interesting....here they are for Waltham - http://www.redfin.com/city/18529/MA/Waltham


Explanation: http://www.redfin.com/help/search/market-data#Should_I_Wait_for_a_Price_Reduction?

I don't get why list vs. sold went out of whack recently...
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