bostonbubble.com

[barry]

As has been compiled on this site and other housing prices in mass are dropping and will continue to drop, but we are not seeing the impact that other parts of the country are. Forbes rated, due to equity in our homes, massachusetts as one of the more insulated markets.

Now I am seeing a lot of sellers in the mid market metro west communities having to drop there prices below 2005-2006 purchase prices.. but those price decreases are no where near the 13-15% drop that has been reported.

What has been the increase in population since 2000-- not sure about the last few years but as of 2007 it was a 1.6%. (however this has been primarily from immigrant population growth)

Inflation adjusted wage growth has been nearly stagnant

As of 2002, there were an estimated 2,649,029 housing units in the state, do not know how mnay more units are hear today. Also the housing stock is older than most places, probably correlating to higher equity/ownership %

Population is approximately 6.5 million

http://www.commcorp.org/researchandevaluation/pdf/ResearchBrief3-02.pdf
look at the population decrease in key housebuying demographics.

if current trends continue with population growth, coupled with recession and unemployment numbers approaching 8%... is that going to be stagflation or a fall off the cliff in home prices?

Is there a scenario that causes this market to plunge? is it unemployment? Can these high home prices survive, even if only in enclaves like weston?

There are a lot of trends that do not speak well for the demand side of the housing market. But i will admit that i am completely confused by Massachusetts housing as a whole.

[john p]

There is a lot of money in the MetroWest, so I'd be careful about comingling data from the rest of the State.

Kim Blanton did an article earlier on this year showing that within the 495 Belt the house prices didn't drop quite as much as outside the Belt. Around the Pike and Route 2 West everthing is quite expensive. I never really understood it because if you wanted to live in Massachusetts, wouldn't you want to be near the Ocean? Anyway, wherever the schools are good, house prices will hold up better. I'm not saying they won't feel downward pressure, it is just you're dealing with a different segment of buyers and sellers than the norm.