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Joined: 14 Jul 2007
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Location: Greater Boston
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Renting in Mass
Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 381
Location: In a house I bought in December 2011
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 Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 3:21 pm GMT Post subject: |
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What do you think explains the spread between the Case/Shiller number (-5 YOY) and the MAR/Warren numbers (-10 and -12)? It seems like there are two possibilities. One is that the Boston metro area is holding up better than the rest of the state. The other is that the Case/Shiller data lags the MAR/Warren data. I'm pretty sure that I read somewhere that the Case/Shiller methodology takes a while to reflect reality on the ground.
Admin, based on your work charting these various measures, do you have a sense that Case/Shiller follows MAR/Warren? |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
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| Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 4:56 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Renting in Mass wrote: | What do you think explains the spread between the Case/Shiller number (-5 YOY) and the MAR/Warren numbers (-10 and -12)? It seems like there are two possibilities. One is that the Boston metro area is holding up better than the rest of the state. The other is that the Case/Shiller data lags the MAR/Warren data. I'm pretty sure that I read somewhere that the Case/Shiller methodology takes a while to reflect reality on the ground.
Admin, based on your work charting these various measures, do you have a sense that Case/Shiller follows MAR/Warren? |
The S&P/Case-Shiller Index definitely lags the data from The MAR and The Warren Group. First of all, it is reported around a month later than the local sources. Secondly, it is a three month moving composite, so the just-released June index actually covers April, May, and June.
That doesn't explain it fully, though. In nominal terms, the YOY changes reported by The Mar were -7.99% in June, -9.15% in May, and -8.72% in April. That's still a larger decline than the S&P/Case-Shiller Index. They do cover different geographical areas, so that could be part of the discrepancy. It could also be a result of a change in the mix of what is selling. Perhaps cheaper homes are what is actually selling and higher priced homes are languishing on the market. That would bring down the median more than the S&P/Case-Shiller Index which uses paired sales.
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Renting in Mass
Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 381
Location: In a house I bought in December 2011
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| Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 5:31 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Thanks admin. It seems likely that the Case/Shiller numbers for Boston won't be improving any time soon. That's interesting locally, but also on a national level, because the Boston numbers are one of the few bright spots in the report. People point to Boston's MOM price increases and moderate YOY decreases and see hope of a Boston leading the turnaround. It looks like they will be losing that data point in the next few months. |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
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| Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 5:39 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Renting in Mass wrote: | | Thanks admin. It seems likely that the Case/Shiller numbers for Boston won't be improving any time soon. That's interesting locally, but also on a national level, because the Boston numbers are one of the few bright spots in the report. People point to Boston's MOM price increases and moderate YOY decreases and see hope of a Boston leading the turnaround. It looks like they will be losing that data point in the next few months. |
Yeah, I don't get it. It's seasonal. The same thing happened last year too. April through July all saw MOM increases in 2007 too (in nominal terms). Big deal - it wasn't exactly a harbinger of better times to come for sellers then, and I don't see why people are repeating that mantra again this year. Either they have bad memories or they think that we do.
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Renting in Mass
Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 381
Location: In a house I bought in December 2011
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| Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 5:52 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| admin wrote: | | Either they have bad memories or they think that we do. |
They think the majority of people have bad memories, and they're probably right about that. |
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