 |
bostonbubble.com
Boston Bubble - Boston Real Estate Analysis
|
|
SPONSORED LINKS
Advertise on Boston Bubble
Buyer brokers and motivated
sellers, reach potential buyers.
www.bostonbubble.com
YOUR AD HERE
|
|
DISCLAIMER: The information provided on this website and in the
associated forums comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY, expressed
or implied. You assume all risk for your own use of the information
provided as the accuracy of the information is in no way guaranteed.
As always, cross check information that you would deem useful against
multiple, reliable, independent resources. The opinions expressed
belong to the individual authors and not necessarily to other parties.
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
news
Joined: 14 Jul 2007
Posts: 0
Location: Greater Boston
|
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
|
 Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 2:38 pm GMT Post subject: |
 |
|
Correction: it was condo sales which were down 24.5%, not single family homes as originally reported. Single family home sales were down 10.1%.
- admin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
JCK
Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 559
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 1:20 pm GMT Post subject: |
|
|
There is some definite market divergence going on here. From today's Globe:
| Quote: | | Meanwhile, communities closer to Boston continued to suffer less than outlying areas. The median price for single-family homes within the Route 495 belt dropped just 3.2 percent over the past year, to $460,000, while condo prices in the metropolitan area were unchanged at $360,000, the Greater Boston Association of Realtors said yesterday. |
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2008/06/24/state_home_sales_decline_in_may/
If prices dropped by 9% statewide, but only 3% within 495, the numbers outside 495 must be absolutely horrible. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 1:39 pm GMT Post subject: |
|
|
| JCK wrote: |
If prices dropped by 9% statewide, but only 3% within 495, the numbers outside 495 must be absolutely horrible. |
That's certainly possible, but it could conversely signify things are worse off inside 495. These are medians being reported, so they are susceptible to a skew from a change in the mix of what is being sold. Hypothetically speaking, if the number of homes being sold within 495 were to fall relative to the proportion being sold outside of 495, that could produce what you are seeing here with a much larger drop in the statewide median, simply because there are more lower priced statewide sales now. I don't know whether that is what actually happened in this case, but it seems possible.
- admin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
JCK
Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 559
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 1:55 pm GMT Post subject: |
|
|
| admin wrote: | | JCK wrote: |
If prices dropped by 9% statewide, but only 3% within 495, the numbers outside 495 must be absolutely horrible. |
That's certainly possible, but it could conversely signify things are worse off inside 495. These are medians being reported, so they are susceptible to a skew from a change in the mix of what is being sold. Hypothetically speaking, if the number of homes being sold within 495 were to fall relative to the proportion being sold outside of 495, that could produce what you are seeing here with a much larger drop in the statewide median, simply because there are more lower priced statewide sales now. I don't know whether that is what actually happened in this case, but it seems possible.
- admin |
Good point. I guess I didn't consider that very likely, based on my hunch that far flung suburbs, which become popular mainly due to lower prices during the boom/bubble, are probably fairing worse than those closer in, all else being equal. But I don't have the numbers to back this up. Boston.com usually posts a town-by-town breakdown of sales, but it's quite a bit of work to piece together the various metro markets from this data.
In any case, I wish there were separate Boston market figures more widely available. I frankly don't really care what's happening on the Cape or in Springfield, which is much less relevant to the Boston Bubble. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:01 pm GMT Post subject: |
|
|
| JCK wrote: |
In any case, I wish there were separate Boston market figures more widely available. I frankly don't really care what's happening on the Cape or in Springfield, which is much less relevant to the Boston Bubble. |
How about the S&P/Case-Shiller Boston Index? It's not statewide, is focused on the Greater Boston area, and importantly is not susceptible to the same skew as the median when it comes to a change in the mix of what is being sold. The April numbers should be out today, I think.
- admin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
JCK
Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 559
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:18 pm GMT Post subject: |
|
|
| admin wrote: | | JCK wrote: |
In any case, I wish there were separate Boston market figures more widely available. I frankly don't really care what's happening on the Cape or in Springfield, which is much less relevant to the Boston Bubble. |
How about the S&P/Case-Shiller Boston Index? It's not statewide, is focused on the Greater Boston area, and importantly is not susceptible to the same skew as the median when it comes to a change in the mix of what is being sold. The April numbers should be out today, I think.
- admin |
Again, excellent point. I wish they included condo sales, but I think the trends are probably similar enough not to matter much, except in certain local markets (e.g., downtown Boston). |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:21 pm GMT Post subject: |
|
|
| JCK wrote: |
Again, excellent point. I wish they included condo sales, but I think the trends are probably similar enough not to matter much, except in certain local markets (e.g., downtown Boston). |
Yes, that's true, it's not directly applicable for condo sales. What about Radar Logic? I haven't looked into their data or methodology much, but I do believe they include condo sales.
- admin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You can post new topics in this forum
You can reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
Forum posts are owned by the original posters.
Forum boards are Copyright 2005 - present, bostonbubble.com.
Privacy policy in effect.
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
