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westsidebubble
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 Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:52 pm GMT Post subject: June YoY #'s? |
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When will June YoY numbers come out?
I'm predicting a 5% decline (SFH median sales price) from June 2005, which would also be about 2.5% lower than 2004.
Can you imagine it? What sort of terror will ensue? |
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admin
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Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
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| Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 3:03 pm GMT Post subject: |
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The Massachusetts Association of Realtors has their release dates for their monthly data at http://www.marealtor.com/content/housingdatareleasedates.asp (note: PDF). July 25th is when they are scheduled to publish the "June Existing Home Sales" data. The Warren Group usually releases their own data slightly earlier.
I do think we could see a substantial drop in the June prices because June 2005 was when the peak was reached (in real terms) and prices have been falling steadily since then. The year over year numbers could be particularly bad due to the comparison between the all time peak and prices that have been declining for a full year.
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don't have one
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| Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 6:00 pm GMT Post subject: june yoy |
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I hear that per the MLS (therefore no fsbos) 6/05 had 5,913 single family residential (no condos or multis) properties sold, 76 average days on market, $455,575 average price, $376,500 median price, and people got on average 98% of the list price, and 96% of the original price (list price may include reductions from the original price)
For 6/06 it was 4,922 properties sold, 107 DOM, $456,396 average, $370,000 median, and people got 97% of the list price and 94% of original price.
a definate softening, but what explains the increased average? |
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don't have one
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| Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 6:17 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| P.S., the June numbers are typically deals entered into 4-8 week prior given the lag between accepted offer and closing. The number that will be most interesting is the September yoy which will reflect the July doldrums and the incresingly visible bubble chatter. |
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admin
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Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
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| Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:34 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | a definate softening, but what explains the increased average? |
Based on the numbers you gave, that's only a 0.18% increase in the nominal average (which would incidentally be a decrease when adjusted for inflation). I would guess this is just due to the thinning out of sales not being exactly uniform across all price ranges. Maybe the sales at the high end of the range are thinning out at a slightly slower rate than the lower ranges - that would explain an average that isn't decreasing as fast as the median.
| Quote: | | P.S., the June numbers are typically deals entered into 4-8 week prior given the lag between accepted offer and closing. The number that will be most interesting is the September yoy which will reflect the July doldrums and the incresingly visible bubble chatter. |
I am anxious to see the June numbers too as June 2005 was when the peak was reached in inflation adjusted terms. I suspect the report next week will mark a full year of declines.
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steverino
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| Posted: Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:58 pm GMT Post subject: Re: june yoy |
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| don't have one wrote: |
a definate softening, but what explains the increased average? |
None of the sales numbers reflect all the homes that are still sitting on the market after significant price cuts. It's one of the ironies of a bursting bubble: the worse the inventory picture gets, the longer it takes for price declines to show up in sold properties. |
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westsidebubble
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| Posted: Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:18 pm GMT Post subject: Re: June YoY #'s? |
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| westsidebubble wrote: | | I'm predicting a 5% decline (SFH median sales price) from June 2005, which would also be about 2.5% lower than 2004. |
Well, no blood in the streets- yet. I'm curious what the average sales price changes are. I guess they stopped reporting that a couple months ago.
| Boston Globe wrote: | Home sales in Massachusetts tumbled 16.6 percent in June, while condominium sales declined 14.3 percent, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors reported in its monthly report today on the state's housing market.
While sales were down sharply last month, prices barely budged. The median house price, $370,000 in June, is just 1 percent lower than it was a year earlier, while the median condo price, $283,500, is 1.1 percent lower than a year ago. |
It's a strange market. All I know is that the stats do not line up with what I am seeing in Cambridge. A number of recent sales are for lower than assessed value and some are lower than previous sales price. There are a few houses listed for lower than the previous sales price. How much will the loss be when they are finally sold? |
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steverino
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| Posted: Tue Jul 25, 2006 11:49 pm GMT Post subject: Re: June YoY #'s? |
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| westsidebubble wrote: |
It's a strange market. All I know is that the stats do not line up with what I am seeing in Cambridge. |
Check out MLS for houses selling just under $1 million. All of those properties either were or would have been over a million last year. Considering the fact that Cambridge had the highest percentage of million-dollar properties in the U.S in 2005, breaking that figure is a huge watershed.
And again, remember that the houses with continuing price cuts haven't sold yet--so they are naturally not reflected in the median. When they do sell, prices will fall off the cliff. |
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westsidebubble
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| Posted: Wed Jul 26, 2006 2:18 pm GMT Post subject: Re: June YoY #'s? |
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| steverino wrote: | | Check out MLS for houses selling just under $1 million. All of those properties either were or would have been over a million last year. |
We are tracking houses selling for less than tax assessed value at http://www.platial.com/realestatecafe/map/6343. Some of these have sold or are on the market for less than last sale price.
| steverino wrote: | | Considering the fact that Cambridge had the highest percentage of million-dollar properties in the U.S in 2005, breaking that figure is a huge watershed. |
Do you have a reference for this? I find it hard to believe. Single Family only? Highest of metro areas? Areas of a certain size? |
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