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GenXer
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703
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GenXer
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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 Posted: Tue May 12, 2009 9:59 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| GenXer wrote: | | Our brain perceives the 'randomness' as a random walk without the big jumps. |
That's why I mentioned the indices but yes you are right. That's why a lot of people can be fooled into thinking they are good investors just by investing during good times. Still, I wish that I had bought some options at $330 when Google repriced all employee stock options. You know that noise aside they would fight hard (possibly by playing accounting games) to get the stock above that point. I guess they could always have repriced them a second time if it kept going down. Not a bad bet to make though.
Speaking of which, another very good bet to make would be the Santa Clause rally this year. Not only do you get to capitalize on the wave of fund transactions but in 2010 you'll also get the IRA->Roth IRA conversions. There's always market news but odds are better this year during that time period than most others. |
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GenXer
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703
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| Posted: Tue May 12, 2009 11:30 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Heh, Google is more a fad than anything. They made it, in the presence of a huge graveyard of wannabees. Nobody remembers alta-vista now, or excite, or thousands of other startups. They just made it and they will be gone the same way they appeared - in a cloud of smoke with a small bang. Save your money - there are better ways to risk it. Hindsight bias is a nasty thing which leads us to make the wrong decisions second time over just to try to catch what we couldn't last time...
Another one bites the dust. Its a myth - there is no such thing. If you look at the numbers, it turns out that there never was a consistent rally. Just a bunch of random rallies that happened to coincide, and not really a trend of any kind.
Great time to convert to ROTH. You can do it too. The AGI is relatively small for that, so you can do it now as well. |
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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| Posted: Wed May 13, 2009 4:50 am GMT Post subject: |
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Henry Blodget coined the term "Google Gambling". That's the problem with Google. I don't think the company is worthless or that it isn't going anywhere but I fear, like Solar, the amount of interest that it has attracted. I also have to say that I'm tempted to send them a resume considering they pay roughly $180k/yr ON AVERAGE to their employees (or 2x what anyone else pays). Maybe when everyone else is bored with them it will become more interesting.
Normally I ignore patterns in the data but there is a logical reason to believe that trading during that time of year has a slight advantage over the rest of the year and I think this year it will be even higher. Sadly, the stupid conversion rules limit you to $100k income WHETHER OR NOT YOU ARE MARRIED! I understand the desire to limit certain benefits to people of certain wealth but I have a hard time understanding the inconsistency with so many other laws (government always provides one number for single and another for married people). Fortunately, it won't matter in a few months. And if the stock market is down at that time again, then great we'll all pay less taxes (and not only help increase the massive debt but also prevent the government from refilling it again in the future). |
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GenXer
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703
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| Posted: Wed May 13, 2009 10:23 am GMT Post subject: |
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| I think you are in for a surprise - Google is probably cutting salaries. The had some layoffs, but if you overspend on your workforce, and all of a sudden you are not making much money - you have to downsize and pay people 'market' rates. There goes your competitive advantage! |
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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| Posted: Wed May 13, 2009 3:04 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| They had some small layoffs but nothing significant. They are still making way too much money for their own good. Since the options were repriced, every employee now has at least ~$70k in options. That will hurt their long term profitability but great to be one of those employees! |
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GenXer
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703
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| Posted: Wed May 13, 2009 3:33 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| That I agree. But would you rather have reasonable job security than higher pay? I mean, if the pay is 2x, maybe its worth it. I dont know about you, but I prefer stability and a decent schedule, even if I'm making 1/2 of what the other guy is making (working 24-7, having no life, no vacation time, etc). |
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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| Posted: Wed May 13, 2009 4:27 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Given that the company is highly profitable even in the Great Recession, I don't think stability is an issue. I don't think their employees work any harder than the rest of us. I'm already working 50 hours/week. And they get 5 weeks of vacation time a year. |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
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| Posted: Wed May 13, 2009 8:04 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| GenXer wrote: | | That I agree. But would you rather have reasonable job security than higher pay? I mean, if the pay is 2x, maybe its worth it. I dont know about you, but I prefer stability and a decent schedule, even if I'm making 1/2 of what the other guy is making (working 24-7, having no life, no vacation time, etc). |
Where does that trade off even exist? Job security is rare in general these days and it's practically non-existent for those in the line of work that Google employs. I doubt that software engineers could improve job security by choosing to work somewhere other than Google. They also aren't giving up a life any more so than elsewhere, from what I have heard from my friends at Google (the friend who I asked works around 50 hours a week, which matches what balor123 said).
| Quote: | | Heh, Google is more a fad than anything. They made it, in the presence of a huge graveyard of wannabees. Nobody remembers alta-vista now, or excite, or thousands of other startups. They just made it and they will be gone the same way they appeared - in a cloud of smoke with a small bang. |
I don't know about that. Google is very different from the bygone dot-com start-ups in that they are massively profitable. They are a public company in large part because they were so profitable and large that they were about to trigger regulatory requirements usually reserved for public companies. That is in sharp contrast to the dot-com flashes in the pan which used IPOs as a means to acquire capital to burn through because they never ran a profit.
That isn't to say I would buy Google stock - I definitely wouldn't at the current price. I would also be very concerned that their profits have a large, single point of failure (AdWords). However, I think that the high stock valuation may be the fad, not the company itself.
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melonrightcoast
Joined: 22 Feb 2009
Posts: 236
Location: metrowest
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| Posted: Wed May 13, 2009 9:20 pm GMT Post subject: Google Hiring |
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balor123:
Not sure if you know this, but I know a few people that have gotten to round 2 in interviews with Google. They say they hire for "raw talent", which translates to have graduated from a top tier university (ivy, MIT, stanford), and "passing" various verbal IQ tests. Previous job experience did not seem to be considered at all.
Good luck to you if you do apply.
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melonrightcoast ... are you? |
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WestCoastXPlant
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| Posted: Thu May 14, 2009 1:21 am GMT Post subject: Re: Google Hiring |
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| melonrightcoast wrote: | balor123:
Not sure if you know this, but I know a few people that have gotten to round 2 in interviews with Google. They say they hire for "raw talent", which translates to have graduated from a top tier university (ivy, MIT, stanford), and "passing" various verbal IQ tests. Previous job experience did not seem to be considered at all.
Good luck to you if you do apply. |
Tech interviews require solid knowledge of basics and some amount of brainpower(I seem to remember you're in this area) At least for tech, top tier is not a requirement but probably does help you stand out from the crowd. The "verbal" IQ tests that I've had were of the "puzzle" variety Microsoft used to ask some years ago.
You have missed the cool train by a few years though -- a few of my grad school friends recently left saying it's not what it used to be 5-6 years ago..But I suppose nothing is. |
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melonrightcoast
Joined: 22 Feb 2009
Posts: 236
Location: metrowest
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| Posted: Thu May 14, 2009 1:46 am GMT Post subject: interviewing at google |
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| Quote: | | Tech interviews require solid knowledge of basics and some amount of brainpower |
I am not in technology, but my husband and many, many friends are. From the people that I know that have interviewed at Google, there were no technical knowledge questions (coding languages, etc.), no questions about previous experience, and very random questions about how one thinks. Such as:
-how big is the internet?
-design a stroller
-extremely complicated theoretical math questions (that I cannot comprehend)
Very different than interviewing at Microsoft, which is all about what technical experience and know-how one has (so I've heard).
Anyone here have direct knowledge of interviewing with Google? Mine is all second had information, after all.
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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| Posted: Thu May 14, 2009 1:48 am GMT Post subject: |
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I think the pay is still good but you're right about the culture changing. I most likely won't apply because it is a different line of work than I do now. Just like working for Microsoft, once you go there you aren't special anymore. It's just that their pay is so good it's tempting  Maybe if it looks like I might get laid off. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Thu May 14, 2009 2:51 am GMT Post subject: Re: interviewing at google |
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| melonrightcoast wrote: | | Anyone here have direct knowledge of interviewing with Google? Mine is all second had information, after all. |
I had two phone interviews and an in-person interview with the Cambridge office in December (not due to a layoff). The questions centered around CS fundamentals like algorithms and data structures, with a couple coding background questions in the first phone interview. I don't remember any abstract "design a house" questions at all.
At the in-person interview, I asked what they were looking for (to see if I was qualified), and the recruiter responded that their philosophy is to first find talent, then find a fit for that talent within the company afterwards. However, later conversations with people outside the company imply that this isn't as true as it may have been previously; it's possible (likely?) that you're being considered for a specific opening within a specific group. The phone call I later got from the recruiter confirmed this. He said that I did not fit the position being considered, but that I should try again later if I'm interested in another opening. However, this could have just been politeness rather than a factual statement. It's also possible that hiring attitudes/practices vary by location or by recruitment need.
From what I briefly saw of the Cambridge office, their desks are arranged in circles of 4 where you're pretty much facing your neighbors all day with only short partitions to divide the four segments of the "desk-circle". I only saw a small portion of the office, so it's possible that other areas are organized differently. This layout actually made me hesitant about the idea of working there. |
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