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admin
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Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2009 3:53 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

GenXer wrote:
admin: correlation does not mean causation. If inflation did INDEED cause higher stock prices, then there would be studies showing how inflation projections/figures can be used to time the stock market. In the absense of such studies, we know very well that we can not time the market given ANYTHING we know today.


I don't know why "inflation projections" would be any more accurate than any other economic forecast (i.e., not reliable at all), so no, they would not allow you to time the stock market. Also, knowing that stock prices will rise somewhat with inflation tells you very little about timing in the near term. Finally, even if you could time it in this manner, it would only give you higher looking nominal gains - it wouldn't improve your real returns.

GenXer wrote:
By the way. Dividends account for 40% of S&P returns. The data you mention DOES NOT INCLUDE DIVIDENDS.


You are right that dividends should be considered, but the impact is not nearly so large. The yield on the S&P 500 right now is 3.29%, not 40% (I realize you said 40% of the returns, but the yield is what matters). Don't forget to account for the taxes on that too.

GenXer wrote:

Its like saying that you can eat the icing and not the cake. My argument stands. Stocks are the best hedge against inflation, at least, the more reliable one. And I still argue that if you KNOW how to build portfolios, you can receive S&P returns which are much less volatile over time, giving you more chances to hit your target.


You keep saying that, but what evidence is there of this conjecture which doesn't hinge completely on both the 1980s - present bull market and the US stock market?

- admin
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Boston ITer
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2009 4:19 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

What I like about high dividend equities, see Tobacco, is that they're kinda like being a part-business owner where your stake in the firm generates an income stream.

So typically, if you buy at the right time, meaning during a sideways channel of secular bear market, that you get an income stream for that entire period, while it chops up and down, and one only worries about the cap gains, when one sells it, at a much later bullish cycle up.
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balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204

PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2009 5:46 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dividends aren't very tax friendly though. What would be better is if the company saved the cash, causing the stock price to go up, allowing investors to sell their shares for higher values but only paying capital gains taxes.
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GenXer



Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703

PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2009 5:46 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boston ITer: It would help to purge the technical analysis terms from our vocabulary, unless you want to have people mistake you for a financial shaman Wink

Just because you add an X% dividend on top of a random process with potentially 'turkey-like' characteristic (i.e. at one extreme - company goes belly up, and a milder one - business falls apart and dividends are reduced or eliminated) doesn't make it a good investment.

admin: You are 100% correct! There is absolutely NO WAY that I can know that in the future the stock market will outperform anything at all! In fact, this is what I've been trying to say all along. In THE PAST the stock market outperformed any other 'asset class' out there. The past is past. In the future, we can not know that the stock market will outperform. But I still believe that given the right tools we can use some elements of the stock market to outperform most other investments available to us, when factoring taxes, fees, commissions, etc. I think we just need to use the right recipe for this to happen, and not to forget other investments as well, money permitting.
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