bostonbubble.com

[Guest]

Isnt the entire H1B cap about 65000/yr for the entire USA? For the last 4 yrs that would be 260000, say 80% of these went for the green card, that is 208000, now say 25% of these live in Boston area (optimistic), that is 52000, out of these how many are in the right situation to buy in 2008?

I don't think these numbers involving astronomical "H1B demand" makes any sense!!

[Guest]

To append to my previous post, Also remember to exclude those H1B guys who decided not to wait and bought anyway That reduces the pool further.

[Paper Boy]

The brazilian immiagrants in Greater Boston are obviously not as tecnicalyy skilled and savvy as the Indian and Russians that have come here. But they are starting to head back to Brazil because the Dollar is dropping compared to the Brazilian currency. There are also many more Brazilians here.

This will affect the re-sale of entry level homes, which will eventually effect the median priced homes as the sellers of the starters will have less people to market to.

I do not think 2008 is going to be a good year to sell your house and its an even worse year for buying a home.

[Guest]

Real Estate prices will NOT be heading up in 2008

No how

No way

This argument is pointless on any level
but the theoretical level .

Extraterrestrial life has a better chance
of being confirmed than a upsurge in Home prices

[hackamada_the]

Guys, thank you very much for the replies! It is very possible that you are right, and the most serious argument for me is the fact that most of you do not belive that prices might go up .

> So, you estimate that almost 13 percent
> of the entire population of Westboro lives
> in one apartment complex? Sounds fishy to me.

Ok. There are about 20000 residents in Westborough. This looks like a fact to me, please let me know if this information is wrong. The complex I am talking about is Fountainhead (on route 9 near Walmart). Go and check yourself - there is a light in almost every window, full parking lots, 90% of residents are Indians.

> According to my observation, a significant part
> of those loosers that bought houses in 2004-2007
> were Indians.

Again, I am also talking about Indians whose LC has been approved in July 2007. And the amout of them is huge. This is only the argument to support my opinion.

> I was in the same situation until last summer when I finally
> became a permanent resident. Many of my friends and coworkers
> who were in the same situation (H1-B visa) didn't wait to become
> permanent residents before buying a house so your argument
> doesn't sound convincing to me.

I am not talking necessary about permanent residence, but I can hardly believe that many people would buy a home without even LC approved. All my co-workers waited for at least LC to be approved.

> You can do a lot better than 6.7% ...

This was the best deal I found 2-3 month ago over internet/phone without visiting any offices. It is probably possible to find a better rate now.

> 1. The Home goes down in Value by additional 20% - 30%

Hey, this is not honest. We are trying to make a forecast here .

> 2. If you need to move to find employment because Job market contracts?
> You are on the hook for Mortgage, fees, and taxes.

That is true. For my particular situation I see a lot of jobs in Massachusetts but this is the serious argument for many people.

> 3. The Condo fee sounds very low - is it possible that it is lower than it should be?

Actually this is one of the biggest condo fees around. At least for complex with no pool, tennis court and playground. This condo fee sounds reasonable at least for such a big complex.

> Don't forget there are lots of unforeseen expenses when you buy a Condo/Townhouse/
> or House. When you rent you are on the hook for the monthly rent and little more.

I agree that rent is still cheaper but not as much as people think. I would say it is 10-15% cheaper only. And if you have 10% for downpayment then buying house might be even cheaper

[Guest]

I am sorry, I've missed some newer posts on second page.

> that is 52000, out of these how many are in the right situation to buy
> in 2008

50K looks like a big number. This means not 50K people but 50K families. MLS Search with my criterias (which are pretty reasonable for a family with 70K-90K salary) gives me only 35 homes:

* 2+ bedrooms
* 1+ bathrooms
* <$225K
* year >= 1970
* SFR or Condo
* Almost all cities except of Worcester and Leominster (no good schools): Acton, Ashland, Auburn, Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, Boylston, Clinton, Framingham, Grafton, Groton, Holden, Hopkinton, Hudson, Lancaster, Marlbogough, Milford, Millbury, Northborough, Shrewsbury, Southborough, Stow, Upton, West Boylston, Westborough

And this search gives me only 35 homes. Try it yourself

> The brazilian immiagrants in Greater Boston are obviously not
> as tecnicalyy skilled and savvy as the Indian and Russians
> that have come here. But they are starting to head back to
> Brazil because the Dollar is dropping compared to the Brazilian
> currency. There are also many more Brazilians here.

That is actually interesting. Are they just talking or actually leaving?

[hackamada_the]

Previous post is also mine, I just forgot to put my name

[BK]

Dear hackamada,
My suggestion about the potential for decrease in values by 20-30% is because of the Credit Crisis.

Have you read any of the news items regarding Citi Bank, Merrill Lynch, or State Street Bank?

This crisis has just begun and you need to understand the potential ramifications for the Housing Market. If these Banks continue to have these losses the secondary market for Mortgages will slow down dramatically - This Will lead to fewer Retail Mortgages for people to buy homes.

Without understanding these dynamics of secondary and primary mortgage markets you risk endangering your financial future.

Please start reading every story about Banks that are in trouble - this crisis could be a least as big as the S&L Crisis of the late 1980s' and early 1990's. The S&L crisis was very bad for Real Estate values.

Best of luck with your decision - 100% loans may be much harder to find in the future.

[spork]

[PaperBoy]

This is just the first page of the story, but it looks like the Brazilians are heading home.


http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2008/01/08/hardships_in_mass_spur_brazilian_exodus/

FRAMINGHAM - Francisco Neto left Brazil for Marlborough in 1995, lured by his version of the American dream: the possibility of steady pay and an exchange rate that would triple the money he would send back home to struggling relatives.

more stories like thisBut after almost 12 years, he plans to return home to the central Brazilian city of Goinia, joining thousands of Brazilians who no longer see the advantage of living here. The decline in the dollar has cut in half the value of the $700 Neto sends home each month: Five years ago, it was worth 2,450 Brazilian real; today only 1,225 real.

That decline, plus a surging Brazilian economy, is making Brazilians reassess the hardships of living in the United States, apart from their families, in a country where it is often difficult to be an immigrant, even for someone with a residence permit like Neto.

"For a long time, it was great," said Neto, 39, pausing one day last week between deliveries for Kodak. "I would send my family about $700 a month. But last year, it got much worse. I have to pay for my gas, and with having a family here, me and my wife were working all the time, but we were broke."

Between 5,000 and 7,000 Brazilians left Massachusetts and returned to Brazil in 2007, according to estimates by the Brazilian Immigrant Center, a nonprofit agency based in Allston. The center estimated that between 2,000 and 3,000 Brazilians returned to their homeland in 2006.

The 2000 US Census listed 39,000 people of Brazilian descent living in the state; the number grew to 73,000 in 2006, according to the American Community Survey, an annual population survey by the US Census Bureau. But that number does not include Brazilians living here without proper documentation. Some estimates put the total number of Brazilian immigrants as high as 230,000.

Fausto Da Rocha, executive director of the Brazilian Immigrant Center, said the weak dollar is just one of several reasons Brazilians are returning home. Brazilians are the second-fastest growing group of illegal immigrants in the United States, and many were deeply disappointed last summer when Congress failed to pass a bill that would have given millions of immigrants a chance to apply for legal residency.

In 2008, he predicted, between 7,000 and 10,00 Brazilians may return home.

[Guest]

How's the exchange rate? Isn't India an "emerging market"? Why would someone from India want to leave a booming area and come to a market where top economists are giving a 50% plus prediction that we're going into a recession? I mean if you started the process before when things were better, I can see wanting to see thing through, but wouldn't you want to be where the action was? I know many folks from Brazil are leaving.

Umm, have you ever been to India? Go to any Indian city like Bangalore or Chennai and I guarantee you will see sights that you will never forget in your life. The kind of appalling poverty and hordes and hordes of poor people moving en-mass through the narrow filthy stinking crowded streets with cacophonous honking of horns from two-three-four wheelers belching enormous pollution, well you get the idea. For most of these people, even a life of utter poverty in the US will get them a much higher standard of living than they can ever dream of. What is the use of having a high salary and great exchange rate if you are forced to live in such third world conditions with plenty of shanty-towns within a few hundred feet no matter where you live?

Those Indians ain't going back, don't worry.

[Guest]

Economists thought of term BRIC: Brasil, Russia, India, China.
Among these four countries, India and China, especially India, despite of all of that buzz in mass media, are still very poor countries. Even in comparisom to Brasil and Russia.
Here are GDP per capita for BRIC countries in USD (2006):
Russia 8,612
Brazil 6,842
China 2,460
India 965.
Putting these country in the same group is quite rediculous, don't you think?
So, what "boom" are you talking about? Salary grows from $50 per month to $100 per month?
In India, according to what some Indians told me, being US resident is a sign of greatest success.
Brazilians, in contrast, prefer to get back to Brazil.
Russian IT guys stopped going to America a few years ago completely: their salaries there, especially in Moscow and ST. Ptersburg, became very very competitive if you take into consideration stagnant US salaries and falling USD.
So, Indians will come to America in great numbers in the future.

[admin]

[john p]

From a cultural perspective regarding India, I know throughout history when you get a disparity in wealth, the rich shop around for a philosophy that makes them feel ok about being a "have" and less guilty about the plight of the "have-nots".

For instance, many in England thought nothing of the potato famine in Ireland because they employed theories of Thomas Malthus. (Sh@#$ Happens and it is nature's way to thin the heard, along with the explosion of population growth due to the Industrial Revolution needs to be managed).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthus

People were less tribal and looking out for eachother and more mercenary, looking out for themselves.

As far as capitalism is concerned, the aristocracy seemed to look towards the Indian Caste System model and elite families often were refered to as Brahamins.

In fact, the Nazi's employed many Indian caste system beliefs and intertwined it with Social Darwinism, Eugenics, and a little Thomas Malthus fear mongering.

My questions to the folks dialed in to India's culture are:

Is the whole caste system thing totally history or are there people who feel that they are better than others?

Are people getting opportunities to break through economically?

Is there an emerging middle class?

Is there total disparity of wealth?

Are people afraid of population growth?

Do you hear any chatter about theories similar to eugenics, Malthus, Social Darwinism, over population, etc.

Basically, as countries become more and more industrialized, I see certain trends of philosophies, heroes and villans, etc.

Could you folks share a bit more about stuff. I mean no offense in any of what I said, I have really no idea about stuff; it's total speculation...

[Guest]

This thread is getting more and more Faucked UP !!

Please somebody put this thread out of it's misery